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Factoid

Geno Smith

Seahawks completing 77 percent of their passes

Geno Smith is looking strangely decent for the Seahawks. It’s one thing to put up big numbers against the Lions, of course, with that defense on pace to allow the most points in league history. But Smith also completed a high percentage of his passes against the 49ers and Broncos, who have two of the best pass defenses in the league.

After the first month of the season, in fact, Smith has completed 77 percent of his passes. That’s the 2nd-best in league history, behind only Tom Brady of the 16-0 Patriots in 2007.

With the league being cluttered right now with iffy quarterbacks, Smith is looking competent. More competent, at least, than was expected in the offseason (when most thought that Drew Lock would be Seattle’s starter).

For the heck of it, I decided to pull the list of all quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes in the first four weeks of a season and also completed 70 percent of their passes. And to make the list more manageable, I’m looking at the 32-team era. The stathead.com site has search tools that are good for this.

Then I cross-merged that list with the final season stats for each guy. I wanted to check where each guy finished. Specifically, when a player is completing a high percentage of his passes, do those guys end up also being good fantasy quarterbacks? Smith, after all, completed a lot of short passes that didn’t really do any damage against the Broncos and 49ers. Seattle’s offense didn’t score a point in the final six quarters of those two games.

The list of the 70 percent passes appears below, and 36 of the 65 didn’t end up finishing with top-10 fantasy numbers. (I”ve got those quarterbacks tagged with black dots.) There’s some apples and oranges in such a comparison of course, with durability and rushing production (not listed) playing a role in where a quarterback ends up on the fantasy landscape.

Overall, I’m not in the Geno Smith camp. I think he’s benefited from playing against a pair of bad defenses, and that we’ll see some slippage in the coming weeks.

70-PERCENT PASSING IN SEPTEMBER (last 20 years)
YearPlayer (Pct%)GSPctYdsTDIntPtsRk
2007Tom Brady, N.E. (79.2%)1668.9%4,806508462.11
2022Geno Smith, Sea. (77.3%)???????
2021• Kyler Murray, Ariz. (76.1%)1469.2%3,7872410358.411
2017Alex Smith, K.C. (76.0%)1567.5%4,042265347.66
2018Drew Brees, N.O. (75.8%)1574.4%3,992325356.99
2021Dak Prescott, Dall. (75.2%)1668.8%4,4493710397.16
2020Russell Wilson, Sea. (75.2%)1668.8%4,2124013435.96
2013Peyton Manning, Den. (75.0%)1668.3%5,4775510498.81
2019• Drew Brees, N.O. (74.3%)1174.3%2,979274262.625
2018• Eli Manning, NYG (74.2%)1666.0%4,2992111313.016
2007• Matt Schaub, Hou. (74.0%)1166.4%2,24199153.324
2013Philip Rivers, S.D. (73.9%)1669.5%4,4783211358.26
2010Drew Brees, N.O. (73.8%)1668.1%4,6203322364.43
2020• Derek Carr, L.V. (73.6%)1667.3%4,103279347.213
2009Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. (73.2%)1566.6%4,3282612340.68
2016• Tom Brady, N.E. (73.1%)1267.4%3,554282298.121
2006• David Carr, Hou. (73.0%)1668.3%2,7671112215.920
2020• Teddy Bridgewater, Car. (73.0%)1569.1%3,7331511306.619
2011Aaron Rodgers, G.B. (73.0%)1568.3%4,643456455.92
2021Joe Burrow, Cin. (72.9%)1670.4%4,6113414392.47
2019Russell Wilson, Sea. (72.9%)1666.1%4,110315383.75
2020• Philip Rivers, Ind. (72.7%)1668.0%4,1692411305.720
2004Daunte Culpepper, Min. (72.7%)1669.2%4,7173911450.51
2021• Russell Wilson, Sea. (72.5%)1464.8%3,113256288.020
2015Tom Brady, N.E. (72.5%)1664.4%4,770367410.42
2013• Tony Romo, Dall. (72.4%)1563.9%3,8283110321.213
2015Aaron Rodgers, G.B. (72.4%)1660.7%3,821318363.58
2018Jared Goff, LAR (72.4%)1664.9%4,6883212397.26
2019Dak Prescott, Dall. (72.4%)1665.1%4,9023011412.83
2021Patrick Mahomes, K.C. (72.3%)1766.3%4,8393713444.14
2008Drew Brees, N.O. (72.3%)1665.0%5,0693417389.41
2020• Gardner Minshew, Jac. (72.1%)866.1%2,259165201.326
2021• Teddy Bridgewater, Den. (72.1%)1466.9%3,052187249.224
2019• Derek Carr, Oak. (72.1%)1670.4%4,054218306.917
2020• Jared Goff, LAR (72.1%)1567.0%3,9522013313.516
2016Matt Ryan, Atl. (72.1%)1669.9%4,944387414.93
2014• Robert Griffin, Was. (72.0%)768.7%1,69446124.333
2014• Colt McCoy, Was. (71.9%)471.1%1,0574381.540
2005Carson Palmer, Cin. (71.8%)1667.8%3,8363212331.91
2015• Tyrod Taylor, Buff. (71.7%)1463.7%3,035206316.018
2015Russell Wilson, Sea. (71.7%)1668.1%4,024348398.54
2016• Brian Hoyer, Chi. (71.4%)567.0%1,4456096.133
2014Drew Brees, N.O. (71.4%)1669.2%4,9523317393.54
2004• Chad Pennington, NYJ (71.3%)1365.4%2,673169216.322
2020• Drew Brees, N.O. (71.3%)1270.5%2,942246254.922
2007• Chad Pennington, NYJ (71.2%)868.8%1,765109139.527
2007• Joey Harrington, Atl. (71.2%)1061.8%2,21578143.526
2018• Derek Carr, Oak. (71.0%)1668.9%4,0491910291.318
2007• Jon Kitna, Det. (71.0%)1663.3%4,0681820283.611
2015• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. (70.9%)1168.0%3,9382116299.519
2020Josh Allen, Buff. (70.9%)1669.2%4,5443710473.51
2009Peyton Manning, Ind. (70.8%)1668.8%4,5003316355.74
2015• Philip Rivers, S.D. (70.7%)1666.1%4,7922913362.411
2022Matthew Stafford, LAR (70.7%)???????
2019Matt Ryan, Atl. (70.5%)1566.2%4,4662614350.07
2020Aaron Rodgers, G.B. (70.5%)1670.7%4,299485440.33
2016• Sam Bradford, Min. (70.4%)1571.6%3,877205280.724
2014Russell Wilson, Sea. (70.3%)1663.1%3,475207379.46
2002Drew Bledsoe, Buff. (70.3%)1661.5%4,3592415332.75
2019• Teddy Bridgewater, N.O. (70.2%)567.9%1,38492108.334
2006• Damon Huard, K.C. (70.2%)860.7%1,878111142.229
2008• Brett Favre, NYJ (70.2%)1665.7%3,4722222274.111
2002• Kurt Warner, St.L. (70.1%)665.5%1,43131186.939
2017• Josh McCown, NYJ (70.1%)1367.3%2,926189260.721
2014Philip Rivers, S.D. (70.1%)1666.5%4,2863118348.59
2021• Mac Jones, N.E. (70.0%)1767.6%3,8012213295.017
2018• Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. (70.0%)1466.6%3,2232412325.315

Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index