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Team projections

Updated team projections

Offensive overviews after one month

At what point is it fair to just give up on offenses? We’re a month into the season, and it’s looking pretty certain that teams like the Rams, Broncos, Colts and Bengals aren’t going to be moving the ball as well as most expected.

Similarly, the Lions, Eagles and Dolphins have exceeded expectations. (My expectations, anyway). At what point do we just consider those offenses to be good?

I am contractually obligated to weigh in on such matters once per week in the Redrafter version of the Cheat Sheet. That involves resetting the draft board entirely, as if we’re walking into a new league today. It involves not only re-ordering the players entirely, but adjusting the team rankings 1 thru 32.

The player rankings left my desk a few hours back. Below see the macro view, with the adjusted team-by-team projections that are tied to those projections.

For team offenses, I see four that I would expect to average 3-4 touchdowns per week over the remainder of the season: Buffalo, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Baltimore. I’ve got the Lions and Dolphins in the tier below that group.

TEAM TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
OffenseTDPTDRTotal
Buffalo40.816.156.9
Kansas City39.617.056.6
Philadelphia24.730.655.3
Baltimore38.415.353.7
Green Bay33.216.749.9
Detroit28.619.848.3
Miami33.514.347.8
Dallas32.315.547.8
Tampa Bay32.814.547.3
Arizona26.020.746.8
LA Chargers36.610.246.8
San Francisco26.419.645.9
Cincinnati33.312.445.7
Minnesota32.312.845.1
Cleveland22.621.544.1
Jacksonville28.115.843.9
LA Rams29.811.441.1
Las Vegas28.412.540.9
Washington26.413.539.9
Denver27.912.039.9
Tennessee20.719.139.9
New Orleans22.616.238.8
New England18.719.037.7
NY Jets24.712.036.6
Atlanta17.019.136.1
Indianapolis22.812.835.6
Pittsburgh22.111.934.0
Seattle23.110.934.0
Houston20.110.230.3
Chicago12.817.029.8
NY Giants15.314.529.8
Carolina18.79.528.2

For passing, I’ve got offenses led by four elite passers at the top: Buffalo, Chargers, Kansas City and Cincinnati. The Cowboys show up in the No. 5 spot. They’ve been below-average statistically thus far, but I’m thinking things will click in when Dak Prescott returns to the lineup.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
OffenseYardsTDPPoints
Buffalo3002.4044.4
LA Chargers2902.1541.9
Kansas City2722.3341.2
Cincinnati2821.9639.9
Dallas2801.9039.4
Tampa Bay2751.9339.1
Miami2701.9738.8
Green Bay2601.9537.7
Baltimore2402.2637.6
Minnesota2601.9037.4
LA Rams2571.7536.2
Las Vegas2601.6736.0
Arizona2621.5335.4
Philadelphia2651.4535.2
Washington2551.5534.8
Detroit2451.6834.6
Indianapolis2651.3434.5
Jacksonville2451.6534.4
San Francisco2501.5534.3
Denver2421.6434.0
New Orleans2601.3334.0
NY Jets2401.4532.7
Seattle2321.3631.4
Pittsburgh2301.3030.8
Cleveland2251.3330.5
Houston2301.1830.1
New England2331.1029.9
Tennessee2201.2229.3
Atlanta1971.0025.7
Carolina1901.1025.6
NY Giants170.9022.4
Chicago165.7521.0

For rushing, no surprise at the top (with the Eagles and Browns), but I’ve got those offenses followed by four other teams that would have looked pretty crazy prior to the season: Falcons, Bears, Lions, Giants.

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
OffenseYardsTDRPoints
Philadelphia1601.8026.8
Cleveland1551.2723.1
Atlanta1381.1320.6
Chicago1451.0020.5
Detroit1351.1620.5
NY Giants150.8520.1
New England1281.1219.5
Arizona1181.2219.1
Green Bay130.9918.9
Tennessee1201.1318.8
Baltimore133.9018.7
San Francisco1181.1518.7
Dallas125.9118.0
Buffalo117.9517.4
Kansas City1131.0017.3
New Orleans115.9517.2
Jacksonville105.9316.1
Seattle118.6415.6
Washington105.8015.3
Minnesota105.7615.0
NY Jets105.7114.7
Pittsburgh105.7014.7
Miami95.8414.6
Denver103.7114.5
Indianapolis97.7614.2
Las Vegas95.7413.9
Tampa Bay88.8513.9
Cincinnati92.7313.6
Carolina95.5612.9
Houston92.6012.8
LA Chargers85.6012.1
LA Rams80.6712.0

—Ian Allan

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