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Team projections

Updated team projections

Buffalo looking like class of the league

The Bills are heading into a difficult stretch of their schedule right now. Three of their next four are on the road at Miami, Baltimore and Kansas City. Their next two home games are against Pittsburgh and Green Bay (Pittsburgh, recall, gave them fits last year). But they’ve sure got it going right now, looking like by far the best offense in the league.

In fantasy leagues nowadays, if you’re going up against the Bills and get through the week with that offense scoring only 3 touchdowns, you feel fortunate. And no other offense makes your feel that way. Kansas City had that kind of vibe back in Week 1, but the game against the Chargers served as a reminder that they’re still working issues with their wide receivers – they’re not as explosive as they’ve been in the past.

The Packers and Bucs, I think, are in the same boat – still figuring out issues and trying to back to the level they were at last season.

I had the Bengals as a top-5 offense in the preseason, but they’ve been unable to get things going – looking like a middle-of-the-pack team that happened to got on a hot streak late last year. And the Chargers are encountering injury issues and haven’t been able to get their running game going.

Tua Tagovailoa threw 6 touchdowns at Baltimore, but I’m not ready to call that a top-5 offense. While that was an encouraging game, let’s see how they fare against Buffalo this week. Miami’s offense, after all, scored only one touchdown in its opener.

The projected team averages coming out of Week 2 (and these numbers are directly tied to our individual player grades):

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS
TeamPassRunTotal
Buffalo43.419.963.2
Kansas City38.316.254.4
Philadelphia22.629.251.9
LA Chargers38.812.851.5
Green Bay34.316.751.0
Tampa Bay35.315.250.5
San Francisco28.421.149.5
Cincinnati34.015.549.5
Minnesota34.513.948.4
LA Rams35.012.847.8
Baltimore31.016.747.8
Arizona26.720.647.3
Las Vegas32.314.546.8
Indianapolis25.021.346.2
Denver29.816.546.2
Miami32.612.645.2
Detroit27.217.945.1
Dallas31.013.144.1
New England24.118.442.5
Tennessee22.118.840.9
New Orleans24.715.239.9
Washington26.913.039.8
Cleveland19.119.138.3
Jacksonville24.112.536.6
NY Giants20.415.235.6
NY Jets22.412.134.5
Seattle21.112.934.0
Houston22.611.434.0
Carolina21.312.834.0
Atlanta19.613.933.5
Pittsburgh22.310.632.9
Chicago19.612.932.5

For passing production, I’ve got Buffalo, Kansas City and the Chargers as my top 3, with the Bears, Browns and Falcons at the bottom. The final column here shows fantasy points using 6 for TD passes and 1 for every 10 passing yards.

PROJECTED PASSING PROJECTIONS
OffenseYardsTDPPPG
Buffalo2822.5543.5
Kansas City2902.2542.5
LA Chargers2852.2842.2
Cincinnati2802.0040.0
LA Rams2732.0639.7
Tampa Bay2722.0839.7
Miami2751.9239.0
Minnesota2682.0339.0
Green Bay2602.0238.1
Las Vegas2651.9037.9
Denver2601.7536.5
Dallas2551.8336.5
San Francisco2601.6736.0
Washington2601.5835.5
Arizona2601.5735.4
Baltimore2421.8335.2
New England2481.4233.3
Detroit2351.6033.1
Jacksonville2401.4232.5
Indianapolis2371.4732.5
New Orleans2351.4532.2
Philadelphia2401.3332.0
NY Jets2331.3231.2
Houston2301.3331.0
Tennessee2301.3030.8
Pittsburgh2101.3128.9
Carolina2101.2528.5
Seattle2081.2428.2
NY Giants2101.2028.2
Atlanta2101.1527.9
Cleveland2081.1327.6
Chicago2051.1527.4

For rushing production, I’ve got the Eagles, Browns and Colts as my top 3, with the Steelers, Dolphins and Texans down at the bottom. The final column here shows expected fantasy points, using 6 for each rushing touchdown and 1 for every 10 rushing yards. (Rushing production here includes not only running backs but also players at other positions.)

PROJECTED RUSHING PROJECTIONS
OffenseYardsTDRPPG
Philadelphia1701.7227.3
Cleveland1551.1322.3
Indianapolis1331.2520.8
San Francisco1251.2419.9
Detroit1351.0619.8
Tennessee1301.1119.6
Arizona1211.2119.4
Buffalo1231.1719.3
Baltimore133.9919.2
New England1231.0818.8
Green Bay128.9818.7
Denver125.9718.3
NY Giants128.9018.2
New Orleans125.9017.9
Kansas City115.9517.2
Chicago125.7617.1
Minnesota116.8216.5
Atlanta115.8216.4
Dallas110.7715.6
Seattle110.7615.6
Cincinnati100.9115.5
Las Vegas100.8515.1
Washington105.7615.1
Carolina105.7515.0
NY Jets107.7115.0
Jacksonville105.7414.9
Tampa Bay92.9014.6
LA Chargers97.7514.2
LA Rams95.7514.0
Houston90.6713.0
Miami85.7412.9
Pittsburgh88.6312.6

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index