We’re in the NFL’s dead period now. Teams have completed their OTA work, but it’s another month until training camps will open. So a good time to pause and look at the overall lay of the land.
I’ve spent most of the last four months looking at players and teams, trying to carefully how each player and offense will perform – trying to find the right numbers in every statistical category. And with the offseason portion of that work complete, we can now take a step back and look at which teams (not individual players, but entire offenses) we think will be the best.
On my board, Kansas City (with Patrick Mahomes leading the way) projects to finish with a league-high 56 offensive touchdowns. Four other offenses project to average just over 3 TDs per week – Eagles, Bills, Bengals, Chargers.
I have four teams averaging fewer than 2 TDs per week – Cardinals, Bucs, Texans, Titans. (Perhaps against my better judgement, I have the Rams up at an even 2 TDs per game.)
The following projections don’t include defensive or special teams scores – just touchdowns. They include only passing and rushing touchdowns projected to be scored in the 17-game regular season.
As usual with this kind of list, let me know in the comments area where you think I’m wrong (and why). These numbers are important, because they’re tied to the projections for the individual players.
| OFFENSES: TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| Kansas City | 39.6 | 16.7 | 56.3 |
| Philadelphia | 27.1 | 25.2 | 52.2 |
| Buffalo | 34.2 | 17.9 | 52.0 |
| Cincinnati | 38.4 | 13.6 | 52.0 |
| LA Chargers | 36.6 | 14.6 | 51.2 |
| Dallas | 30.3 | 20.7 | 51.0 |
| Detroit | 28.7 | 19.6 | 48.3 |
| San Francisco | 26.7 | 20.6 | 47.3 |
| Jacksonville | 32.6 | 13.9 | 46.6 |
| NY Jets | 32.3 | 14.2 | 46.5 |
| Miami | 30.9 | 14.8 | 45.7 |
| Minnesota | 30.8 | 14.5 | 45.2 |
| Baltimore | 27.0 | 17.6 | 44.6 |
| Seattle | 27.9 | 16.2 | 44.0 |
| Cleveland | 23.5 | 19.6 | 43.0 |
| Denver | 26.0 | 15.8 | 41.8 |
| Green Bay | 25.8 | 16.0 | 41.8 |
| New Orleans | 26.5 | 14.3 | 40.8 |
| New England | 22.6 | 16.3 | 38.9 |
| Chicago | 21.1 | 17.7 | 38.8 |
| Las Vegas | 25.3 | 13.3 | 38.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 21.6 | 16.5 | 38.1 |
| Atlanta | 19.0 | 18.7 | 37.7 |
| NY Giants | 19.6 | 17.9 | 37.5 |
| Carolina | 22.6 | 13.8 | 36.4 |
| Washington | 21.4 | 13.8 | 35.2 |
| Indianapolis | 14.6 | 19.8 | 34.4 |
| LA Rams | 19.6 | 14.5 | 34.0 |
| Tennessee | 18.9 | 14.5 | 33.4 |
| Houston | 19.9 | 11.5 | 31.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 20.9 | 8.3 | 29.2 |
| Arizona | 17.3 | 11.4 | 28.7 |
—Ian Allan