The Raiders on Sunday are hosting Houston. At first glance, that seems like a good situation for Derek Carr. The Texans have won only one game all year. But I’m not sure that he’ll get enough opportunities to air it out.

Carr in theory could probably throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns if he put his mind to it. But the Raiders have played well in their last two by instead emphasizing the run, with Josh Jacobs running for 144 and 154 yards against Denver and Kansas City. And with Jacobs grinding things out, Carr has taken on a lesser role in the offense.

This upcoming game looks like it could follow the same script. Houston has struggled against the run (only two teams are allowing more rushing yards), so I’m expecting Jacobs will get plenty of carries, probably with another big game. And if Jacobs is rocking, that will make it harder for Carr to light up the stat sheet.

Testing this theory, I see that Jacobs as a pro has run for 100-plus yards in 11 games. Carr has tended to finish with modest numbers in those games, averaging 219 passing yards, with 12 TDs and 5 interceptions. I see only three games with more than 241 passing yards, and I see only four games with multiple touchdowns. (I see only 2 games where Carr both passed for more than 241 yards and also threw 2 TDs, which is what we’re looking for).

2019Chi.W 24-21253222900
2019at G.B.L 24-42222829321
2019Det.W 31-24203128920
2019Cin.W 17-10252929211
2019at K.C.L 9-40203022212
2020at Cle.W 16-6152411110
2020Den.W 37-12162515400
2021Den.W 17-13202520111
2021LACW 35-32203618620
2022Den.W 32-23213418800
2022at K.C.L 29-30193024120

—Ian Allan