The potential for second-guessed coaching decisions goes way up tonight, with Nathaniel Hackett’s Broncos meeting Brandon Staley’s Chargers. They’re the current coaching leaders when it comes to zigging when others are zagging.
With Hackett, he got off to a bumpy start when he shut down Russell to attempt a 64-yard field goal at Seattle. And he took more heat last week after bypassing a game-tying chip-shot field goal in overtime to instead attempt a fourth-down pass into the end zone (which was batted down). The first-year coach has been taking his lumps.
With Staley, he’s been aggressively attempting fourth downs since he showed up in Los Angeles. Most famously, he went 1 of 5 on fourth-down plays in scoring position in a shootout loss against Kansas City last December. And Staley dodged a bullet last week in Cleveland after attempting a fourth-and-one from his own 46-yard line with 1:14 left and a 2-point lead. The Chargers escaped that one when Cade York’s 54-yard field goal at the end sailed just wide.
Staley has attempted enough of these fourth-down gambles that I figured it would make sense to look at the overall body of work, gauging whether he’s helping or hurting his team. After looking at all of them, it’s looking like he’s currently running in the black.
Since taking over, Staley in 22 games has attempted 27 fourth downs when the Chargers have been in scoring position. I’m describing “scoring position” as 35 yards and in (so the wild gamble from his own 46 isn’t listed).
Had Staley played it completely conversatively, he could have attempted 27 field goals on those drives. That’s a maximum of 81 points. Had they made 85 percent of those kicks, they would have scored about 69 points.
But Staley instead rolled the dice in all of those situations, and we can now look at the results of each of those drives (not just whether the Chargers were able to get a first down, but what ended up happening on the drive). Of the 27 drives, 12 ended with touchdowns, 1 ended with a field goal anyway, 1 ended with an interceptions and on 13, the Chargers gave up the ball on downs.
The Chargers (including extra points) ended up getting 87 points from those 27 drives, about 18 more than they probably would have scored from attempting field goals.
I’m not offering this as proof that all of those decisions were correct. Each one of those decisions can be debated. But it appears the big-picture results show that it’s been a positive overall for Staley to take his numerous gambles.
| BRANDON STALEY'S FOURTH-DOWN GAMBLES (in scoring range) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Down | Result of Play | Result |
| 2021 | K.C. | 4-4-28 | Herbert 9 to Allen | TD |
| 2021 | K.C. | 4-9-35 | Herbert inc for Williams | downs |
| 2021 | Cle. | 4-8-24 | Herbert 20 to Allen | TD |
| 2021 | Cle. | 4-7-22 | Herbert 12 to Allen | TD |
| 2021 | Bal. | 4-13-28 | Herbert inc for Guyton | downs |
| 2021 | N.E. | 4-1-7 | Ekeler 2 run | TD |
| 2021 | Phi. | 4-1-28 | Herbert 1 run | FG |
| 2021 | Phi. | 4-2-27 | Kelley 1 run | downs |
| 2021 | Phi. | 4-2-2 | Herbert inc for Allen | downs |
| 2021 | Den. | 4-4-34 | Herbert 15 to Guyton | int |
| 2021 | Den. | 4-2-35 | Herbert inc for Allen | downs |
| 2021 | Cin. | 4-4-4 | Herbert 4 to Allen | TD |
| 2021 | K.C. | 4-1-11 | Kelley 7 run | downs |
| 2021 | K.C. | 4-1-33 | Herbert 2 run | TD |
| 2021 | K.C. | 4-5-5 | Herbert inc for Parham | downs |
| 2021 | K.C. | 4-2-28 | Herbert inc for Cook | downs |
| 2021 | K.C. | 4-1-1 | Herbert inc for Allen | downs |
| 2021 | Den. | 4-2-41 | Herbert 11 to Ekeler | TD |
| 2021 | L.V. | 4-21-23 | Herbert 23 to Palmer | TD |
| 2021 | L.V. | 4-6-18 | Herbert 5 to Williams | TD |
| 2021 | L.V. | 4-2-19 | Herbert 5 to Guyton | TD |
| 2022 | L.V. | 4-1-28 | Herbert 0 run | downs |
| 2022 | K.C. | 4-7-7 | Herbert 7 to Palmer | TD |
| 2022 | K.C. | 4-1-18 | Ekeler 3 run | TD |
| 2022 | Jac. | 4-15-32 | Herbert inc for Williams | downs |
| 2022 | Jac. | 4-5-11 | Herbert inc for Carter | downs |
| 2022 | Cle. | 4-2-28 | Herbert inc for Williams | downs |
—Ian Allan