Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: How long until DeAndre Hopkins makes an impact? Teams moving to run-oriented offenses? Waiting on Dalton Schultz. Injury rates at the key positions. And more.

Question 1

Hopkins is back this week for AZ. I've read differing opinions on how much of a difference he will make. I've read he will probably be on a snap count, due to only having two days of practice. But I've also read he will be their go to guy. Any insight? Az has been a big disappointment this year, due in a large part to his absence, I think. The Cards are just a game out at 2-4 so they are still in the hunt for the West.

David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)

“In the hunt” for what, exactly? I suppose the rest of the NFC West is flawed enough that I can’t guarantee Arizona won’t make the playoffs. But it looks like a lesser, mismanaged team. They’ve signed and traded for a bunch of older guys – A.J. Green, Zach Ertz, J.J. Watt. They’ve got a subpar offensive line. They made James Conner one of the 10 highest-paid running backs in the league. They gave a $230 million extension to a quarterback that originally included a homework clause. And I’ve never really bought into the overall vision of the offense, with a bunch of passes around the line of scrimmage that don’t seem to go anywhere. Kyler Murray creates some cool plays at times, with his ability to run around, but it doesn’t look like a style of play that will ever get Arizona beyond being a .500-type team. I did not like the decision to give Kliff Kingsbury a five-year contract extension. Hopkins at least gives him another oar in the water. When he’s on his game, he’s a top-5 receiver. At least, he has been in the past – he’s 30 now, and with limited practice reps. Hopkins was an elite receiver in 2020, catching 115 passes for 1,407 yards. At that time, he was the best contested-ball receiver in the game (recall, for example, him pulling down a pass while surrounded by three defenders to win the Buffalo game). But they dialed back his role last year, with him averaging only 4.2 catches for 57 yards in 10 games. There were a bunch of games where Christian Kirk, A.J. Green or Rondale Moore finished with more catches or yards. He was a good scorer at least, with 8 TDs in 10 games. In general for tonight’s game, I would use him. I expect he’ll play a little less than usual, but when he’s on the field, he’s their best receiver. He’s just better than Moore, Green and Robbie Anderson. For most teams who’s been waiting a month and half to use him, I don’t think they have two wide receivers who are better.

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Question 2

I was thinking about what the Eagles are doing offensively, and now those gritty Falcons are starting to go that direction, as well. So I was wondering: Is there an overall trend in the NFL towards more running the ball? And, if yes, is it resulting in more rushing TDs and fewer passing TDs?

Roland Deschain (Decatur, IL)

It’s not your imagination. More teams are running the ball more. The Bears, Browns, Saints and Giants are definitely part of that group. The Jets, Ravens, Cowboys and Patriots have emphasized the run at times while dialing down the passing game. Even the Lions have run it surprisingly well at times.

Enough teams are running it that shows up in the overall league-wide numbers. Teams are averaging over 118 rushing yards per game, 2nd-most of the last 20 years. And teams are averaged .89 rushing touchdowns per game, 4th-highest of the last 20 years. Passing production, meanwhile, is down Teams are averaging only 1.37 TD passes per week, fewest since 2008. Teams were averaging a third of a touchdown pass more per week as recently as two years ago. And teams are averaging only 241 passing yards, 3rd-lowest of the last 10 years.

LEAGUE OFFENSIVE AVERAGES
Year	Points	Run	TDR	Pass	TDP
2002	21.67	116.1	.90	227.0	1.36
2003	20.83	117.9	.83	213.8	1.28
2004	21.48	116.6	.81	225.3	1.43
2005	20.62	112.5	.84	218.2	1.26
2006	20.66	117.3	.83	219.3	1.27
2007	21.69	110.9	.75	228.3	1.41
2008	22.03	116.0	.93	224.2	1.26
2009	21.47	116.7	.84	232.3	1.39
2010	22.04	114.5	.78	236.3	1.47
2011	22.18	117.1	.78	244.8	1.46
2012	22.76	115.9	.78	246.0	1.48
2013	23.41	112.9	.80	252.3	1.57
2014	22.59	111.3	.74	236.8	1.58
2015	22.81	108.8	.71	259.2	1.64
2016	22.78	108.9	.87	255.6	1.54
2017	21.72	109.7	.74	239.6	1.45
2018	23.34	114.4	.86	254.4	1.65
2019	22.81	112.9	.87	251.8	1.56
2020	24.79	118.9	1.04	254.9	1.70
2021	22.98	115.2	.93	244.1	1.54
2022	21.65	118.4	.89	240.8	1.37

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Question 3

Dynasty TD-dependent League: In the world of TE wasteland, I picked up Taysom Hill due to his running/passing potential. Dalton Schultz is available so would you pick him over Hill? Thinking Schultz is younger, waiting on Dak return and an improvement with his knee injury for week 7. Thoughts?

Howie Fishman (Hermosa Beach, CA)

Heading into this season, Schultz in his last 19 full games with Dak Prescott at quarterback caught 93 passes for 1,005 yards and 10 TDs. He was their option inside the 10 last year, catching 7 of the 9 passes thrown his way, including 5 touchdowns and a 2-point conversion. That’s what you’re shooting for. But that production isn’t necessarily coming back soon, and it might not be coming back at all. He’s been working through a knee injury all year, this could be one of those where it’s not until next year that he’s really right physically. And they’ve got this Jake Ferguson kid who looks like an NFL tight end. He’s going to be playing, and maybe they also get comfortable throwing to him. I can’t say with confidence that Schultz will ever get back to playing quite like he did in 2021, when he was a top-5 tight end.

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Question 4

I am overly strong at RB and with 4 WR able to start I am thinking of trading Dameon Pierce and a nominal #5 WR (Aiyuk or Allen Robinson) for Mike Evans. What say ye? (my other WRs right now are: Pittman, Samuel, Lazard, K. Allen and Gage).

Jeff Zwiers (Bellingham, WA)

In the most-recent revision of my season-long player list, I have Pierce and Evans both projected to average exactly 15.4 PPR points per week. So for me, that’s a fair trade on its own; there would be no need to throw in extras. Pierce is a real nice player. Right up there, in my opinion, with the two other standout rookie running backs (Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker). Pierce was weirdly underused in their opener, but he’s followed that up by playing well in four straight games. And I heard GM Nick Caserio saying something about Pierce being the exact kind of player they’re trying to build around – he supposedly was in the weight room squatting 425 pounds the day after scoring the game-winning touchdown at Jacksonville. With Evans, he’s got the goal-line rapport with Tom Brady; he’s the featured guy in that part of the field. But they don’t use him all that much between the 20s, where Chris Godwin tends to see more balls. And it’s fair to wonder if Tampa Bay’s offense is ever going to launch. Brady is looking like a guy who’s wishing he had stayed retired. I don’t have much confidence that Evans is going to be an upgrade, so I would be inclined to just stick with Pierce.

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Question 5

Where do you rate Brian Robinson? Big upgrade? I just traded Chris Olave for him and I myself expect big things. What about the index?

Peter Dudek (King Of Prussia, PA)

They like Robinson more than Antonio Gibson; that seems clear. He moved into the starting lineup pretty quickly in the preseason, and now that he’s back from the gunshot wounds, they’ve put him back in the No. 1 spot. Robinson is a more physical runner. But I don’t know that he’ll finish with big numbers. He’s playing for a last-place team with a lesser offensive line. Chicago has a bottom-5 run defense, and Robinson carried 17 times for only 60 yards against them. And it doesn’t look like they’ll use him much in the passing game. Two games in, and they haven’t attempted to throw him a pass. I suppose they’ll start working that stuff in as the season progresses (he caught 35 passes in 14 games at Alabama last year, so apparently his hands are fine), but it hasn’t happened yet. I would be nervous about giving up Olave, who looks like the No. 1 receiver in New Orleans and maybe the best of the rookie receivers. But I can see where you’re coming from, with running backs harder to find than wide receivers.

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Question 6

With all the injuries this season, I wonder who the most and least injured QB/RB/WR/TE have been? For example, Kelce and M Andrews seem durable, but Kittle and seemingly all other TEs much less so.

Peter Chen (Palo Alto, CA)

It’s a hard game. Guys get hurt. And not just running backs. With wide receivers and tight ends, guys sprain ankles and pull hamstring. Setting aside quarterbacks (where injuries aren’t as common), there has been only one notable player at each of the other positions who hasn’t missed a game in the last three years. DK Metcalf, Dalton Schultz and Nyheim Hines (and Schultz and Hines, of course, have missed games this season).

Below see charts showing the top 20 stat producers at each position. The guys tagged with black dots have missed 3 of fewer games. Only eight wide receivers, six tight ends and two running backs.

TOP 20 WIDE RECEIVERS (last 3 years)
Player	G	Run	Rec	TD
• Cooper Kupp	48	55	4,082	29
Davante Adams	42	0	3,924	34
• Stefon Diggs	48	62	3,890	24
Tyreek Hill	44	242	3,375	33
Keenan Allen	46	15	3,329	20
Mike Evans	45	10	3,198	35
• Tyler Lockett	48	4	3,286	26
Chris Godwin	40	29	3,276	22
• DK Metcalf	49	17	3,170	29
DeAndre Hopkins	41	19	3,144	21
• Amari Cooper	47	20	3,168	21
• DJ Moore	47	110	3,525	12
• Diontae Johnson	47	109	2,764	21
A.J. Brown	43	70	2,995	26
Terry McLaurin	46	42	3,090	16
Robert Woods	40	316	2,626	16
Deebo Samuel	38	550	2,598	21
Allen Robinson	44	1	2,807	14
• Tyler Boyd	47	94	2,715	14
Marvin Jones	46	0	2,589	22

TOP 20 TIGHT ENDS (last 3 years)
Player	G	Run	Rec	TD
• Travis Kelce	47	7	3,770	27
Mark Andrews	46	0	2,914	26
Darren Waller	43	5	3,006	14
George Kittle	36	59	2,597	13
Zach Ertz	43	4	2,014	12
• Mike Gesicki	48	0	2,053	13
Hunter Henry	43	0	1,868	18
Tyler Higbee	45	1	1,815	13
Dallas Goedert	41	0	1,961	12
Jared Cook	45	0	1,773	20
• Noah Fant	47	-12	1,905	10
T.J. Hockenson	40	0	1,673	12
Austin Hooper	42	0	1,567	13
• Dalton Schultz	49	0	1,429	12
Evan Engram	39	30	1,529	8
Dawson Knox	42	13	1,263	14
• Jonnu Smith	47	122	1,181	13
Gerald Everett	44	22	1,303	8
• Jimmy Graham	47	0	1,070	14
Hayden Hurst	45	0	1,141	11

TOP 20 RUNNING BACKS (last 3 years)
Player	G	Run	Rec	TD
Alvin Kamara	42	2,627	1,728	36
Dalvin Cook	41	3,851	1,104	36
Derrick Henry	39	4,504	474	45
Austin Ekeler	42	1,998	2,043	34
Aaron Jones	45	2,987	1,220	40
• Ezekiel Elliott	48	3,338	1,045	34
Nick Chubb	42	3,820	602	29
Josh Jacobs	43	3,087	752	28
Leonard Fournette	42	2,331	1,209	19
David Montgomery	44	2,808	924	24
Joe Mixon	38	2,770	739	28
Melvin Gordon	43	2,516	667	29
James Conner	38	1,937	841	31
Miles Sanders	40	2,439	864	12
Kenyan Drake	41	2,026	773	21
Devin Singletary	45	2,332	691	14
Ronald Jones	46	2,130	538	18
• Nyheim Hines	49	855	1,112	14
Mark Ingram	40	1,871	459	19
David Johnson	38	1,264	909	15

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