If you want to work the strength of schedule angle, how about Jimmy Garoppolo? The numbers suggest San Francisco will see the worst defenses for the remainder of the fantasy slate. A quartet of good quarterbacks, meanwhile, will play the hardest schedules.
By one method of counting, anyway.
If you take the average number of touchdowns allowed by each defense, then feed those numbers into the remainder of the schedule, it suggests the 49ers have the easiest road going forward. Their next eight games, if everyone plays exactly as they have so far, will be against defenses that would allow 20.7 touchdowns in eight games against a typical offense (7.2 rushing touchdowns and 13.5 passing scores).
(I’m leaving field goals and defensive touchdowns out of this – looking at rushing/passing TDs only.)
The Bills, Chargers, Bears and Broncos are all just behind San Francisco.
The Eagles, meanwhile, project to have the hardest schedule going forward. That hardly seems possible, with a cupcake game at Houston coming up next. But Philadelphia’s next eight are against teams that should allow about 16.4 touchdowns).
Jalen Hurts’ next eight games, in other words, are against defenses that over eight games should allow about 4 fewer touchdowns than the defenses that Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields and Mr. Unlimited will see in the same time frame.
Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins all play on teams with schedules not much different than Hurts’. Not saying that these guys should be placed on fantasy waiver wires, but 16+ touchdowns is about 20 percent less than 20+ touchdowns. Should have some effect on overall production.
With the schedule factored in, I’m thinking of Garoppolo more favorably as a second quarterback. Only two of San Francisco’s final nine games are true road games (they’ve got six at home and one neutral site game in Mexico).
| SCHEDULE: NEXT EIGHT GAMES (touchdowns) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Total | Run | Pass |
| San Francisco | 20.7 | 7.2 | 13.5 |
| Buffalo | 20.6 | 10.5 | 10.1 |
| LA Chargers | 20.6 | 6.9 | 13.7 |
| Chicago | 20.6 | 9.6 | 10.9 |
| Denver | 20.5 | 5.6 | 14.9 |
| Atlanta | 20.2 | 7.5 | 12.7 |
| Jacksonville | 20.0 | 7.3 | 12.6 |
| Carolina | 19.7 | 8.2 | 11.5 |
| New England | 19.4 | 7.7 | 11.7 |
| Seattle | 19.2 | 6.5 | 12.7 |
| Baltimore | 19.1 | 7.4 | 11.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 19.1 | 7.4 | 11.8 |
| NY Jets | 19.0 | 9.4 | 9.6 |
| Green Bay | 18.9 | 8.1 | 10.8 |
| LA Rams | 18.9 | 6.5 | 12.3 |
| Cincinnati | 18.8 | 5.8 | 13.1 |
| Indianapolis | 18.4 | 6.5 | 11.9 |
| New Orleans | 18.4 | 7.6 | 10.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 18.2 | 7.8 | 10.4 |
| Miami | 18.2 | 9.3 | 8.9 |
| NY Giants | 18.1 | 7.7 | 10.5 |
| Houston | 18.1 | 5.9 | 12.2 |
| Arizona | 18.0 | 7.3 | 10.6 |
| Washington | 17.9 | 8.6 | 9.4 |
| Las Vegas | 17.8 | 7.2 | 10.6 |
| Cleveland | 17.2 | 6.8 | 10.5 |
| Detroit | 17.1 | 8.2 | 8.9 |
| Tennessee | 17.0 | 7.3 | 9.6 |
| Minnesota | 16.9 | 6.8 | 10.1 |
| Kansas City | 16.9 | 7.1 | 9.7 |
| Dallas | 16.8 | 7.3 | 9.5 |
| Philadelphia | 16.4 | 6.8 | 9.6 |
—Ian Allan