The Patriots and Jets were a few seconds away from tying 3-3 in regulation on Sunday. I’m sure the last thing anyone wants to hear right now is any suggestion that anybody from either of those two teams should be used in a meaningful role in a fantasy lineup. That said, I notice that these two teams both have favorable upcoming schedules.
As in, really favorable. Based on how defenses have played thus far, the Patriots and Jets will play the easiest schedules in the league over the next month.
New England’s next four are against the Vikings, Bills, Cardinals and Raiders. Those four teams (if we operate under the assumption that they’ll play just as they have so far) would allow 11.2 touchdowns if playing four games against a typical offense.
And the Jets’ next four are against the Bears, Vikings, Bills and Lions. Chicago and Detroit, of course, can’t stop anyone. Minnesota and Buffalo don’t stand out as patsies, but add up the points, and the Jets come in at 10.7 TDs on their schedule over the next four games – the 2nd-easiest schedule.
I’m not promising, by the way, that either the Patriots or Jets will score 11 touchdowns in their next four games. New England hasn’t been able to get Mac Jones (pictured) going all year. I’m just pointing out that they’ll be playing against defenses that have been crappy.
I sure hope the Jets make a quarterback change, because everything is set up nicely for that offense to do a lot more than we’ve seen.
Other teams with favorable upcoming schedules include the Bengals, Broncos, Bucs and Packers. (So of those top six, only one of the offenses has actually been playing well – Cincinnati.)
Teams that will tend to face more difficult defense in their next four include the Giants, Bears and Kansas City.
To clarify what you’re seeing in the chart below: I’ve taken the average number of rushing touchdowns and passing touchdowns allowed by each defense, then merged those into the 2022 NFL schedule. The numbers below show the totals for the next four games of each team. For most teams, that’s Weeks 12-15; for teams that haven’t yet had their bye, it’s Weeks 12-16. On the touchdown totals, they include only rushing and receiving scores (no special teams)
| SCHEDULING TOUCHDOWNS (next 4 games) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Run | Pass | Total |
| New England | 4.7 | 6.6 | 11.2 |
| NY Jets | 5.2 | 5.5 | 10.7 |
| Cincinnati | 4.2 | 6.1 | 10.3 |
| Denver | 4.2 | 6.1 | 10.2 |
| Tampa Bay | 4.2 | 6.0 | 10.2 |
| Green Bay | 4.8 | 5.3 | 10.1 |
| LA Chargers | 3.4 | 6.6 | 10.0 |
| San Francisco | 4.4 | 5.5 | 9.9 |
| Houston | 4.1 | 5.8 | 9.9 |
| Washington | 3.9 | 6.0 | 9.9 |
| Seattle | 3.4 | 6.5 | 9.9 |
| New Orleans | 3.7 | 6.1 | 9.8 |
| Miami | 3.2 | 6.4 | 9.6 |
| Buffalo | 4.1 | 5.5 | 9.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 4.3 | 5.2 | 9.5 |
| Philadelphia | 4.0 | 5.3 | 9.4 |
| Jacksonville | 3.6 | 5.6 | 9.2 |
| Cleveland | 4.4 | 4.7 | 9.1 |
| Indianapolis | 3.2 | 5.8 | 9.0 |
| Las Vegas | 3.0 | 5.8 | 8.8 |
| Minnesota | 3.8 | 5.0 | 8.8 |
| Detroit | 3.3 | 5.4 | 8.8 |
| Atlanta | 3.2 | 5.5 | 8.7 |
| Tennessee | 3.0 | 5.6 | 8.7 |
| LA Rams | 3.3 | 5.4 | 8.7 |
| Dallas | 3.8 | 4.9 | 8.7 |
| Baltimore | 3.5 | 4.8 | 8.4 |
| Arizona | 2.7 | 5.6 | 8.3 |
| Carolina | 4.0 | 4.3 | 8.3 |
| Kansas City | 3.9 | 4.3 | 8.2 |
| Chicago | 3.5 | 4.6 | 8.1 |
| NY Giants | 1.9 | 5.6 | 7.5 |
—Ian Allan