Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. Special holiday edition. Looking at the top tier of quarterbacks for 2023. Can Zack Moss and Zonovan Knight deliver playoff wins for fantasy teams? Replacing a hurt Hurts. Inside the stat projecting process. Is Jeff Driskel a poor man's Taysom Hill? And more.
Question 1
In a 1-QB league, I generally like to wait on drafting a QB until the later rounds, after 9 or 10 are already off the board. I was delighted to draft Aaron Rodgers and Trey Lance this year, but that didn’t work out well. Next year I plan to be more aggressive drafting a top 3 QB, as I see a clear tier break after Allen, Mahomes and Hurts. The likes of Jackson, Herbert, Kyler, Dak, Brady, Rodgers and Wilson have dropped down a tier or two, while Tua, Fields and Lawrence have stepped up a tier or two. Burrow is in the mix as well, just behind the top 3. Perhaps even Geno or Goff sneak in as a borderline QB1. Do you agree that targeting a top 3 QB should be a higher priority in 2023, and if so, in what Rounds do you think those top 3 will be drafted?
Steven Math (Austin, TX)
For me, I think Herbert and Burrow are in that top tier. Both might be safer picks than Allen and Hurts. With those running quarterbacks, I think it’s hard to keep them in piece for a full season. Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson (two more runners) have had injuries, and Hurts went down on Sunday. It’s a near-miracle, in my opinion, that Allen is on the verge of completing a fourth straight season without missing a start – almost every week I see him taking ridiculous hits that he should be avoiding. Heading into the 2023 season, I expect I’ll come to the same conclusion I did prior to this one: If you select Herbert, you’re maybe giving up only a little production while avoiding the injury potential and also late-season weather issues.
Question 2
Many thanks to FFI for many years of excellent advice (except Allen Robinson, lol). Of course, the injury gremlin has hit my 1st place team (Taylor, Pierce, Deebo). I am left with Jamaal Williams and Deon Jackson at RB. Do I pick up Zack Moss and start two Colts? One Colt (which?) and Jamal? Or some other option? Thanks to FFI I have Hurts, Kelce, Godwin, Watson & M.Williams. Thanks again and Happy Holidays! Go Birds!
MICHAEL HAMER (Springfield, PA)
Considering how Robinson played in his final season with the Bears, I suppose it can be argued that he played exactly like we all should have expected him to play. But the Rams gave him a bunch of a money, making it seem like they were confident he would get back to being an upper-level receiver. And I remember Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and others talking up Robinson in the preseason. I definitely made a crappy call on that one, but looking back on it, it would be difficult to do much differently. With the Colts running backs, I’ve got Moss higher on my board. He was on the field for over twice as many plays as Jackson last week, and with almost twice as many touches. They’re at home against a Chargers defense that’s been pretty awful against the run at times, so I would be giving some thought to using both of them. If you start both of those guys, you know you’re getting some production. Williams has been pretty modest recently, with the Lions using a three-back rotation. If you’re looking for a safe floor, maybe a Moss-Jackson combo. If you’re looking for upside, than Moss-Williams. Williams has run for fewer than 40 yards three weeks in a row, and they tend to ignore him in the passing game. I’m an upside guy. I would start Moss and Williams (Williams is higher than Jackson on my board).
Question 3
At this point in the year it seems to me it would be more helpful for most to have the Redrafter the point total for the next two weeks and not the 18th week since almost no Fantasy Football is played the last week. Have you thought of providing both? Thanks.
BOB RIPPY (Village Of Loch Lloyd, MO)
On the Redrafter rankings (Tuesday version), the Week 18 games aren’t factored in much. It’s an elusive endeavor, trying to compile such a product, with everyone having different formats and goals. We all have different goals and priorities. In general, the NFL week starts by making initial sense of each game. You look at each stat for each player, comparing it with his standing, existing projection. Did the player do what he was supposed to do? Or is he now less or more than we believed last week? We’re auditing and confirming all of the numbers and ratios, so that they’re accurate when we post the projections for the next games on Wednesday. We’re resetting the board, so to speak, and that process needs to happen quickly, so that we can get into researching and projecting the 16 games for the week.
Question 4
Dynasty question for TD-dependent league. Which RB would you keep between Rhamondre Stevenson or Bam Knight? Stevenson gets yards but does not equate to scores. Damien Harris gets the goal line carries when healthy though he is a free agent next year. Knight is replacing injured Breece Hall but Hall will be back next year and Carter is also on the roster. Can Knight overtake Hall?
Howie Fishman (Hermosa Beach, CA)
Knight looks like a pretty good back. He’s been running hard. A month or so ago, he was on the practice squad, but it didn’t take them long to decide that they like him more than James Robinson and Michael Carter. But I don’t see him taking away meaningful touches from Breece Hall anytime soon. Hall looks like he’s going to be one of the top 5 backs in the league for the foreseeable future. Stevenson is definitely ahead of Knight in the pecking order. He’s shown he can be productive when he’s got the right offense around him, and I think they’ll clean up a lot of those issues in the offseason. Whether Harris is back remains to be seen. I would guess not, with Pierre Strong looking like he’s ready to play. I think some other team will value Harris more than the Patriots do. As I remember it, Harris began the season as New England’s starting running back, with Stevenson in a change-of-pace role. They used Stevenson more on passing downs. Then Harris got hurt, with Stevenson taking over as the starter. If Harris re-signs with New England, it can be debated whether he or Stevenson will start the opener in 2023. I think Stevenson. And I wouldn’t think they’ll be looking to use Harris as a designated goal-line battering ram. I like Stevenson more than Knight. Not that Zonovan isn’t a cool story. We’ll get to see another chapter unfold night (he left last week’s game with an ankle injury, but he’s not on the injury report).
Question 5
I was rolling into the semis as the one seed and now that this year's MVP, Jalen Hurts is likely out, I need a miracle. Options appear limited with Jones (vs. Minnesota), Minshew (vs. Dallas) or Wilson (vs. Jax). Any of these or am I missing someone else?
GREG GRIMES (Plymouth, WI)
I would keep the faith. Jones, Minshew: I think those guys can put up top-10 numbers. Minnesota ranks next-to-last in pass defense, and if you got that route, you’re also getting rushing production. With Minshew, he’s got a lot of really good weapons, and he’s facing a pass defense that has really fallen apart recently.
Question 6
Kirk Cousins saved my bacon in first round of the playoffs. As luck would have it, I have D. Pierce going to IR which make me waiver wire option 1. I put in for Zack Moss. I also lost Lockett. I put in for K.J. Osborne for the connection with Cousins. Do you think Osborne can repeat his performance? Should I be looking to diversify my line up? Take Goodwin instead of Osborne? I'm facing loaded team this week.
Patrick LaMendola (Penfield, NY)
I’m a Goodwin fan. He would be my guy, with Kansas City having allowed 5 more touchdown passes than any other team.
Question 7
Please explain why Fantasy Index would stop providing Weekly rankings by ALL POSITIONS mid-season. I know QBs in the mix was formatted for drafting and might have confused a few folks, but setting weekly lineups by your (separate) rankings is now much more time consuming. Practically all other services provide weekly “FLEX” rankings … i.e. RB/WR/TE combined - why can’t you?
Albert Chapman (Las Vegas, NV)
Apologies for the confusion. In our system, we’re projecting stats for every player. The rankings are then based on those projections. That way, the rankings adjust for everyone’s various scoring systems. (That is, Dalvin Cook appears ahead of Christian McCaffrey in standard scoring for Week 16, but McCaffrey appears higher in PPR.) When comparing players from different positions, the assumption is that you’ll rely on the stat projection numbers that appear next to the players’ names. For Week 16 in standard scoring, for example, Stefon Diggs is the #11 wide receiver, showing at 9.8 points. Joe Mixon is the #24 running back, but he shows at 11.4 projected points. Mixon projects to score 1.6 more points, so you put pick him before Diggs for a flex spot.
Question 8
Tough lineup decision this week in the playoff semi-finals. TD mainly league, with some yardage bonuses. I can start three of these four. The custom rankings are very close. Which one do I NOT start: D'Andre Swift, Zack Moss, Zonovan Knight, or Latavius Murray.
Chris Tilley (Riverview, FL)
A few weeks back I put a decent grade on Kyren Williams. He appeared to be the starting running back for the Rams (he had been on the field for 70 percent of their plays the previous week), and they were playing at home against the Seahawks, who can’t stop the run nowadays. Looked good on paper, and the Rams did, in fact, run for 171 yards and 2 TDs. But they went back to Cam Akers. Of the guys you mention, Moss is the most Kyren-like. He’s got the nice matchup at home against the Chargers, but I can’t guarantee he’ll be better than their other back, Deon Jackson.
Question 9
Yahoo lists Jeff Driskel as a QB/TE so I could slot him in the TE spot. Would you play him over Greg Dulcich, Gerald Everett or Dallas Goedert? I have Dulcich on my roster but could go get Driskel, Everett or Goedert.
Ron Gubelman (Burien, WA)
Lovie Smith says they will continue to use their platoon QB system, with Driskel spelling Davis Mills. The results so far have been modest. In two games, Driskel has carried 11 times for 44 yards, and he’s completed 6 of 10 passes for 46 yards, with 1 TD. I don’t expect him to do much at Tennessee. I would be more inclined to take the Dallas on Dallas gamble. Goedert is coming off IR, but I think the Jalen Hurts injury might actually make Goedert better. They won’t be able to run it as often or as effectively. Goedert played one game with Gardner Minshew at quarterback last year, and it was the best game of his career – 6 catches for 105 yards and 2 TDs.
Question 10
Kirk Cousins over Lamar? I just don't know if I trust Lamar (who I traded for after week 4. Bad move!) And do I trust Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon over Lazard and DJ Chark in my final lineup? Thank you! You guys are doing a great job.
Eric Salat (Los Angeles, CA)
I think Lamar had made the QB decision for you. He hasn’t practiced. I don’t have anything new on the other guys. Lazard, at this point, I think we can put away – doesn’t seem to be any better than a bunch of other modest receivers in that offense.