I’m a little surprised the Bills are favored by 2.5 points tonight. They’re on the road, and Cincinnati right now seems to have the more precise, reliable quarterback.
Josh Allen can make plays that nobody else can, with his unusual size, mobility and arm strength. But he also mixes in a lot of Brett Favre moments. He’s thrown 9 interceptions in his last nine games, and he’s completed only 61 percent of his passes in those weeks. He’s been inconsistent.
Joe Burrow doesn’t have the same off-the-charts physical skills but seems to have a stronger command of the game, with better accuracy and decision making. He’s completed 71 percent of his passes in his last nine games, averaging 66 more passing yards in those games, with 7 more touchdowns.
Below see the list of all quarterbacks who’ve attempted at least 100 passes in the last 10 weeks (Weeks 7-16). Burrow ranks 3rd in passer rating, while Allen is down at 26th among the 35 qualifying quarterbacks.
| PASSER RATING (last 10 weeks) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Com | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Rating |
| Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F. | 113 | 160 | 1,284 | 9 | 1 | 110.5 |
| Jalen Hurts, Phi. | 163 | 241 | 1,958 | 16 | 3 | 109.2 |
| Joe Burrow, Cin. | 237 | 336 | 2,644 | 22 | 7 | 106.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 237 | 351 | 2,984 | 20 | 7 | 104.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 179 | 285 | 2,513 | 17 | 5 | 103.7 |
| Brock Purdy, S.F. | 77 | 115 | 912 | 8 | 3 | 103.2 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 204 | 287 | 2,316 | 20 | 11 | 102.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett, Clev. | 112 | 163 | 1,282 | 6 | 1 | 101.8 |
| Jared Goff, Det. | 227 | 338 | 2,604 | 15 | 3 | 101.2 |
| Geno Smith, Sea. | 224 | 324 | 2,384 | 18 | 7 | 99.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 217 | 328 | 2,352 | 15 | 3 | 98.5 |
| Justin Fields, Chi. | 122 | 182 | 1,298 | 12 | 5 | 98.2 |
| Andy Dalton, N.O. | 166 | 247 | 1,910 | 14 | 7 | 97.4 |
| Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 95 | 138 | 905 | 8 | 3 | 97.0 |
| Kirk Cousins, Min. | 238 | 364 | 2,615 | 18 | 6 | 96.1 |
| Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 130 | 199 | 1,571 | 7 | 3 | 94.9 |
| Baker Mayfield, 2 tms | 93 | 137 | 922 | 6 | 3 | 92.2 |
| Daniel Jones, NYG | 191 | 289 | 2,007 | 8 | 3 | 91.0 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | 261 | 377 | 2,538 | 11 | 7 | 89.8 |
| Taylor Heinicke, Was. | 161 | 259 | 1,859 | 12 | 6 | 89.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 178 | 282 | 1,928 | 15 | 8 | 89.1 |
| Marcus Mariota, Atl. | 100 | 163 | 1,164 | 9 | 5 | 88.6 |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 91 | 145 | 965 | 4 | 1 | 88.4 |
| Mac Jones, N.E. | 178 | 272 | 1,764 | 7 | 3 | 87.6 |
| Mike White, NYJ | 80 | 129 | 952 | 3 | 2 | 85.8 |
| Derek Carr, L.V. | 192 | 318 | 2,243 | 16 | 10 | 85.5 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 180 | 297 | 2,049 | 15 | 9 | 85.5 |
| Tom Brady, T.B. | 277 | 424 | 2,526 | 13 | 8 | 83.7 |
| Russell Wilson, Den. | 137 | 223 | 1,577 | 7 | 6 | 82.0 |
| Matt Ryan, Ind. | 139 | 208 | 1,292 | 6 | 6 | 81.3 |
| Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 162 | 250 | 1,527 | 4 | 5 | 78.5 |
| Davis Mills, Hou. | 144 | 235 | 1,570 | 9 | 9 | 77.8 |
| Colt McCoy, Ariz. | 90 | 132 | 780 | 1 | 3 | 76.6 |
| Zach Wilson, NYJ | 90 | 167 | 1,116 | 5 | 5 | 72.3 |
| Deshaun Watson, Clev. | 71 | 123 | 703 | 2 | 3 | 69.3 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan