Washington is turning to Sam Howell at quarterback. And why not? It gives them the opportunity to see him in a regular-season game while simultaneously saving all of us from having to watch Carson Wentz or Taylor Heinicke.
My first thoughts turn to the Dallas defense. If the Commanders are rolling out a fifth-round rookie who’s never played before, does this make the Cowboys the No. 1 defense on the board for Week 18? It’s been a good defense anyway (among the leaders in sacks and takeaways) though it has slipped some recently and also may be looking to pull some guys early, once it gets the game in hand.
Howell wasn’t a disaster in the preseason, completing 43 of 69 passes (62 percent) for 547 yards, with a touchdown and an interception. He did, however, take 9 sacks (in 78 plays), which is a pass-rush friendly ratio. I think he’s more mobile than their veterans (he ran for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns last year at North Carolina, and he carried 13 times for 94 yards and 2 TDs in the practice games).
Looking at comp rookies, I see 42 other quarterbacks who were drafted after the first two rounds who have started in the last 20 years. Collectively, they went 10-32 in those games, averaging 184 passing yards, with 26 touchdowns and 51 interceptions. (For this mini-study, I’m leaving out the first- and second-round picks, with Howell seeming to be a different prospect than guys like Trevor Lawrence and Andrew Luck.)
For the purposes of the Dallas defense, I see from those 42 comp quarterbacks an average of 1.2 interceptions and 2.6 sacks, with 6 interceptions that were returned for touchdowns (in the chart, indicated by black dots). Those numbers aren’t quite as high as I would expect.
Ron Rivera, of course, knows that the Cowboys can get after the quarterback. I would think they’ll be careful not to ask Howell to do too much. I am moving Dallas up a little in my projections, but I don’t see this as a huge change.
| LIGHTLY REGARDED QUARTERBACKS (first start) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rd | Opp | Result | Com | Att | Yards | TD | Int | Sk |
| 2002 | Randy Fasani, Car. | 5 | T.B. | L 9-12 | 5 | 18 | 46 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2002 | David Garrard, Jac. | 4 | at Ind. | L 13-20 | 13 | 26 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2003 | Dave Ragone, Hou. | 3 | at Jac. | L 0-27 | 11 | 23 | 71 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2004 | Craig Krenzel, Chi. | 5 | S.F. | W 23-13 | 13 | 25 | 168 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 2004 | John Navarre, Ari. | 7 | at Det. | L 12-26 | 18 | 40 | 168 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 2004 | Luke McCown, Cle. | 4 | N.E. | L 15-42 | 20 | 34 | 277 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 2004 | Matt Schaub, Atl. | 3 | at N.O. | L 13-26 | 17 | 41 | 188 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2005 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 4 | at Was. | L 7-9 | 15 | 28 | 141 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2005 | Charlie Frye, Cle. | 3 | Jac. | L 14-20 | 13 | 20 | 226 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 2005 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, S.F. | 7 | Was. | L 9-24 | 21 | 36 | 163 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2006 | Bruce Gradkowski, T.B. | 6 | at N.O. | L 21-24 | 20 | 31 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2007 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 3 | NYJ | W 17-14 | 22 | 28 | 234 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2007 | Troy Smith, Balt. | 5 | at Sea. | L 6-27 | 16 | 33 | 199 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2009 | •Keith Null, S.F. | 6 | at Ten. | L 7-47 | 28 | 44 | 165 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 2010 | Colt McCoy, Cle. | 3 | at Pitt. | L 10-28 | 23 | 33 | 281 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 2010 | Rusty Smith, Ten. | 6 | at Hou. | L 0-20 | 17 | 31 | 138 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 2010 | John Skelton, Ari. | 5 | Den. | W 43-13 | 15 | 37 | 146 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2010 | Joe Webb, Min. | 6 | at Phil. | W 24-14 | 17 | 26 | 195 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2011 | T.J. Yates, Hou. | 5 | Atl. | W 17-10 | 12 | 25 | 188 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 3 | at Ari. | L 16-20 | 18 | 34 | 153 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2012 | Nick Foles, Phil. | 3 | at Was. | L 6-31 | 21 | 46 | 204 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 2012 | ••Ryan Lindley, Ari. | 6 | S.F. | L 17-31 | 31 | 52 | 312 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 2012 | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 4 | at Cle. | W 38-21 | 26 | 37 | 329 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2013 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 3 | Ari. | L 10-13 | 24 | 43 | 193 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2014 | Zach Mettenberger, Ten. | 6 | Hou. | L 16-30 | 27 | 41 | 299 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 4 | NYG | L 19-20 | 25 | 45 | 227 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2016 | Jacoby Brissett, N.E. | 3 | Hou. | W 27-0 | 11 | 19 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2016 | Cody Kessler, Cle. | 3 | at Mia. | L 24-30 (OT) | 21 | 33 | 244 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2017 | C.J. Beathard, S.F. | 3 | Dall. | L 10-40 | 22 | 38 | 235 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 2017 | •Nathan Peterman, Buff. | 5 | at LAC | L 24-54 | 6 | 14 | 66 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 2019 | Gardner Minshew II, Jac. | 6 | at Hou. | L 12-13 | 23 | 33 | 213 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 2019 | •Ryan Finley, Cin. | 4 | Balt. | L 13-49 | 16 | 30 | 167 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2019 | Will Grier, Car. | 3 | at Ind. | L 6-38 | 27 | 44 | 224 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 2020 | Ben DiNucci, Dall. | 7 | at Phil. | L 9-23 | 21 | 40 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2020 | Jake Luton, Jac. | 6 | Hou. | L 25-27 | 26 | 38 | 304 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2021 | Davis Mills, Hou. | 3 | Car. | L 9-24 | 19 | 28 | 168 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 2021 | •Ian Book, N.O. | 4 | Mia. | L 3-20 | 12 | 20 | 135 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 2022 | Bailey Zappe, N.E. | 4 | Det. | W 29-0 | 17 | 21 | 188 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2022 | Skylar Thompson, Mia. | 7 | Min. | L 16-24 | 7 | 13 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2022 | Malik Willis, Ten. | 3 | at Hou. | W 17-10 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2022 | Brock Purdy, S.F. | 7 | T.B. | W 35-7 | 16 | 21 | 185 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022 | Desmond Ridder, Atl. | 3 | at N.O. | L 18-21 | 13 | 26 | 97 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2022 | Sam Howell, Was. | 5 | Dall. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan