The suspended Bills-Bengals game has been officially scrapped by the NFL, as if it never happened (started to happen). This of course has a major effect on the AFC playoff picture, so the NFL has outlined how they'll handle all the potential scenarios resulting from Week 18 games. As with most compromises, it's not a great situation for anyone.
The two major consequences of the game being cancelled are as follows. One, the Bengals (11-4) have won the AFC North over the Ravens (10-6). A Ravens win would still leave them half a game behind Cincinnati. And two, if Kansas City beats the Raiders on Saturday, they clinch the No. 1 seed and bye week in the AFC. At 14-3, Kansas City could not be caught by 12-3 Buffalo.
These consequences are patently unfair to the Ravens and Bills of course, since Baltimore could have won the division (had the Bengals lost to Buffalo) and the Bills could have been the No. 1 seed (had they won in Cincinnati). They're also unfair to the Bengals, should they end up facing Buffalo in the playoffs, since they could have had the tiebreaker advantage had they won the Week 17 game. They also could have been the top seed if Kansas City loses to Las Vegas on Saturday. So the league has put in a bunch of contingencies if these teams should happen to face each other, as follows:
If the Ravens beat Cincinnati on Sunday, and those teams meet in the playoffs, a coinflip will decide homefield advantage. (I've seen Bengals fans complaining about this, but worth noting that Cincinnati can make this contingency moot by simply beating Baltimore on Sunday.)
If Kansas City and Buffalo both win, and then meet in the playoffs, the game would be played at a neutral site (so 14-3 Kansas City doesn't get homefield advantage over 13-3 Buffalo, which would have won a tiebreaker).
If Kansas City and Buffalo both lose and the Bengals win (in which case the three teams would be 13-4, 12-4 and 12-4) any playoff meeting involving the teams would be at a neutral site.
If Kansas City and Buffalo both lose and the Bengals lose (KC 13-4, Buffalo 12-4 and Cincinnati 11-5), a KC-Buffalo playoff game would be at a neutral site.
Still with me? Good. Here are the ramifications for Week 18:
Kansas City clinches the No. 1 seed and bye with a win. Buffalo's sole motivation for winning would be to have a neutral site game with Kansas City if they meet in the playoffs. Cincinnati's sole motivation for winning would be to host Baltimore in a potential playoff game, rather than needing to win a coin flip to host Baltimore.
If Kansas City loses, Buffalo can be the No. 1 seed and get the bye with a win. Cincinnati's motivation for winning, in addition to hosting Baltimore in a playoff game, would be to get a neutral site game with Kansas City if they meet in the playoffs.
So how does this realistically affect Week 18? Glad you asked. Since Kansas City plays on Saturday and will either win or lose (I'm ignoring the possibility of a tie, it's unlikely and too confusing). Here are the two resulting likelihoods of those outcomes on Sunday's games.
Kansas City loses. The Bills can be the No. 1 seed and get a bye with a win. Buffalo would definitely be playing starters. The Bengals can't be the No. 1, but they can get a neutral site game with Kansas City, and they would definitely be home if they face the Ravens. I think the Bengals would play their starters.
Kansas City wins. The Bills can't get the No. 1 seed or bye, but they can get a neutral site game if they meet in the playoffs (as they'd probably expect to do), AND can host Cincinnati in the playoffs if the Bengals lose. And they can keep the Patriots out of the playoffs. I think the Bills would play their starters. The Bengals can ensure a home playoff game against Baltimore, and a neutral site game with Buffalo. I think the Bengals would play their starters.
The side element involves the Ravens and Chargers, currently tied at 10-6. The Chargers, based on a better conference record, hold the tiebreaker for the No. 5 seed. The No. 5 will play at the Jacksonville-Tennessee winner. The No. 6 will play at Cincinnati or Buffalo. So the No. 5 seed is important. The question is if the Ravens will view it importantly enough to play key starters like Mark Andrews and J.K. Dobbins (it's already clear that Lamar Jackson won't be playing). I think they might, but they'll also get those players out of harm's way early if the game isn't going their way. I would be hesitant to count on Dobbins in particular this week. The Chargers game kicks off after Bengals-Ravens has been decided. If the Ravens win, the Chargers will probably play starters at Denver to ensure that 5th seed, although spelling Austin Ekeler more heavily with Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller seems likely. If the Bengals win, I don't think Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen or Mike Williams will play -- Chargers will be locked in as the No. 5 seed and it would make little sense to put those guys at risk in a meaningless game at Denver.
Fantasy-wise, the cancellation of Bengals-Bills erases the stats that were accumulated in the first quarter -- the Burrow-Boyd touchdown, the Tyler Bass field goal, and other assorted yards and catches. They've been zeroed out in my ESPN leagues, the FFPC (which was initially including those points) has removed them, and RTSports was already not counting them. Not sure about some of the other major sites. But from the NFL's standpoint, that game never even started.
Those with meaningful games in Week 18 should probably be rooting for the Raiders to spring the upset against Kansas City. That's the best way to ensure the Bills will be playing starters throughout against the Patriots, and probably increases the chances of the Bengals doing the same against the Ravens.
--Andy Richardson