Although Fantasy Index Weekly is done for the season, we will take a look at the two teams playing in Super Bowl LVII over the course of this week. Up first, the Philadelphia Eagles. Depending on when you bet, you could have gone with the Eagles as either a slight underdog or a slight favorite; there's little consensus.
The line appears to have settled in most places with the Eagles favored by 1.5 points, and an over-under of about 49.5, which would be slightly higher scoring. These teams last faced each other early in the 2021 season, in Philadelphia. Kansas City won that day, 42-30, with both offenses putting up over 450 yards; 6 touchdowns for Kansas City, 3 for the Eagles. Unlikely those kind of numbers show up, but that's the most recent meeting.
QUARTERBACK:
Jalen Hurts put up huge numbers this season, averaging 247 yards passing and 51 rushing, with 35 total touchdowns in 15 games (2.3 per game). The averages tended to fluctuate on a weekly basis. Five times he passed for at least 285 yards, but five times he threw for fewer than 205. Six time he rushed for 60-plus yards, but seven times he was under 30. But multiple touchdowns look pretty certain, with Hurts putting up at least 2 total scores 13 times in 15 games during the season. Kansas City allowed 43 touchdowns during the season; a league-high 33 passing scores, and 10 rushing touchdowns. This defense won't hold Hurts under 2 scores; the primary question is whether more of his production comes via the run or the pass.
Recent trends suggest more of it will come on the ground. Hurts suffered a shoulder injury in Week 15, that kept him out of the next two games. When he returned (the regular-season finale, and the two playoff games), he threw for 229, 154 and 121 yards, with 1 touchdown, while running for a total of 86 yards and 2 scores. Is that shoulder 100 percent? Probably not, although his lesser passing numbers were also a function of the Eagles controlling things with their defense and running game. Opponents scored 16, 7 and 7 points respectively, and it's very unlikely the Eagles will be able to do that to Patrick Mahomes and company.
Aside from the shoulder, pass rush could be a concern. Kansas City had 55 sacks during the season (only the Eagles had more). Hurts was sacked 38 times in 15 games, taking at least 3 in just over half (eight) of those. Just once in each playoff game, with Philadelphia controlling them and Hurts not having to pass very often, but we're thinking this will be more of a back-and-forth affair.
Our general feeling is that Hurts will finish with below-average passing numbers, say 230 yards and 1-2 touchdowns. But there will be plenty of running. Difficult to see him finishing much under 280-290 total yards and a couple of touchdowns, with an outside chance at 3 if the game turns into a shootout.
RUNNING BACKS:
The Eagles ranked 4th in rushing during the season, at 148 yards and nearly 2 touchdowns per game (32 in 17 contests). They've taken things up a notch in the postseason, rushing for 268 and 148 yards, with 7 touchdowns. The latter of those was against San Francisco's 2nd-ranked run defense. Kansas City was 8th, allowing 107 yards per game, but more accurately this was an average run defense -- allowing 4.4 yard per carry -- that tended to force opponents away from the run due to its high-powered offense and weak secondary. Only five teams faced fewer rushing attempts during the season than this defense. It won't be shutting the Eagles ground game down.
Miles Sanders is the main runner, and the best bet for both rushing yards and touchdown runs -- among the team's running backs, anyway. Jalen Hurts outscored Sanders 13-11 on the ground, and accounted for a third of the rushing yards (51 per game). And Hurts averaged 37 rushing yards with a touchdown in each playoff game, so if they're concerned about him taking hits it wasn't apparent the last two games (and now it's the Super Bowl, so there's definitely nothing to save him for).
The team went to more of a committee backfield down the stretch. Over the last six games (including the playoffs), Sanders has averaged 56 rushing yards, with 2 TDs. Kenneth Gainwell averaged 36 rushing yards in those same six games, with 1 TD, while Boston Scott mixed in for 19 rushing yards, with 2 scores. With both playoff games one-sided, it's possible Sanders' workload was scaled back for that reason, and he'll be more of a feature back in this game. Scott in particular barely played in the competitive Week 15-17 contests; we're expecting he'll have a modest role. But Gainwell should get some change-of-pace carries, and he'll be a lot more involved as a receiver. Sanders caught 20 passes during the season; just 3 in his last six games. Gainwell in those same contests caught 12 passes for 109 yards. Particularly in PPR formats, Gainwell could be a viable option, although probably the 4th-best running back playing in this game (with Kansas City a little more likely to use an even committee of its two top backs).
WIDE RECEIVERS:
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have been hugely disappointing in the postseason. Through no real fault of their own: the Eagles didn't have to pass very much in either game. Brown has caught 7 passes for 50 yards in those contests; he averaged over 5 receptions for 88 yards with 11 touchdowns during the season. Smith has been a little better (8 for 97 with a touchdown), though a key 29-catch against the 49ers should have been overturned. He averaged slightly more catches (just under 6) but for 17 fewer yards per game than Brown during the season, with 4 fewer touchdowns.
This game should be a lot more competitive, with more passing and more production from both receivers. The matchup itself is way better, with Kansas City allowing 33 touchdown passes during the season, 4 more than any other team, and 20 to wide receivers (only Dallas allowed more). With that matchup against the Cowboys, Smith caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in the series, while Brown caught 11 for 170, with 1 touchdown. The lean is to disregard what little these players have done the last two games, and look for something closer to their season averages -- the pass game will primarily run through these wideouts.
Quez Watkins is an iffy choice. There was a late-season stretch of higher-scoring games, most notably against Washington, Green Bay and Tennessee, where Watkins caught 12 passes for 152 yards and a score. But Dallas Goedert was on IR for most of those games. Watkins in his last six has caught 7 passes for 39 yards. That includes a pair of higher-scoring contests against Chicago and Dallas where the Eagles passed for over 300 yards. Unlikely he's much of a factor (and Zach Pascal definitely won't be; just 2 catches in his last six combined).
TIGHT ENDS:
Dallas Goedert is the 2nd-best tight end playing in this game, of course, but he's a reliable part of the passing game. His biggest games (a pair with 8 catches, and three over 80 yards) all came the first half of season, but he was steady (except for the five games he missed) otherwise. Including the playoffs, in his last six games Goedert has caught 3, 3, 3, 6, 5 and 5 passes, for an average of 44 yards, with 2 touchdowns. That's the range to be looking for, perhaps 4 catches and a one in three chance of a touchdown. Kansas City allowed 9 to the position, but that's while allowing 4 more period than any other defense. The two capable pass catchers they faced in the playoffs finished with modest totals: 5 for 31 for Evan Engram and 4 for 37 for Hayden Hurst. Jack Stoll is the only other tight end to see a target in the playoffs; unlikely he or Grant Calcaterra catches a pass on Sunday.
KICKER:
Neither Super Bowl team was kicker-friendly during the season, each allowing just 22-23 field goals. Their high-powered offenses tended to force opponents to push for touchdowns, and they tended to push for such scores themselves. The Eagles led the league in extra points (53) but were next to last in field goals (22). But these are the kickers left, and it might make sense to latch onto the kicker from the team you expect to win -- that one would be more likely to be able to tack on a field goal late in the game. In terms of accuracy, Jake Elliott (20 of 23) was the better of the two. But more likely these teams are kicking extra points than multiple field goals, based on the way the offenses and defenses played all season long.
DEFENSE:
The Eagles had 70 sacks during the regular season, 15 more than 2nd-place Kansas City. They've kept that going in the postseason, with 8 in the two games, and the lean is they'll have a strong chance of making it up to 3 in this one. Patrick Mahomes was sacked just 26 times during the season, but he's playing through an ankle injury and his mobility isn't as good at this point. He was sacked 3 times in the AFC Championship game against a Bengals pass rush that wasn't nearly as good as this one (just 30 sacks). The Eagles had 17 interceptions (4th), but Mahomes threw only 12, and just 1 in his last six games combined. Slightly better than average situation for fumbles (Eagles recovered 10, Kansas City lost 11). The Eagles don't have a notable returner. They scored a pair of defensive touchdowns, but Kansas City was one of six teams that didn't allow any touchdowns to opposing defenses or returners.
Next: Kansas City.
--Andy Richardson