The point spread has fluctuated on this game, but you get the feeling that if both teams were fully healthy, Kansas City would be about a field-goal favorite. They have a decided experience edge, having advanced to the Super Bowl after the 2019 and 2020 seasons, beating San Francisco and losing to Tampa Bay in those games. The point spread and over-under suggests a 25-24 type of game.

QUARTERBACK:

Patrick Mahomes threw for 326 yards and 2 TDs in the AFC Championship game, so clearly an injury-compromised Mahomes is more than capable of putting up top numbers. Mahomes played through a high-ankle sprain in that game, and he won't be 100 percent in this one either. But it was clear it was affecting him, not just his mobility (which was definitely reduced) but perhaps his ability to drive the ball downfield. After several throws he was stepping gingerly, trying to protect that ankle, and he really ran the ball only once (a 5-yard scramble on the final play that, combined with a penalty, set up the game-winning field goal). It's two weeks later, but fair to guess he won't be running the ball this week.

Mahomes was sacked 3 times by Cincinnati, and that was a pass rush that was well, well below Philadelphia's top-ranked group. The Eagles had 70 sacks during the season (and 8 more in two playoff games), while Cincinnati had only 30 all year. They'll be coming after Mahomes, trying to make him uncomfortable and force some hurried throws, and at times they should have some success. This was the 4th-ranked pass defense during the season, while Cincinnati was below-average (19th).

Schedule was a factor. The Eagles played two-thirds of their games against lesser passers from the NFC East (New York and Washington twice, Cooper Rush), AFC South (Colts, Titans, Texans) and then Bears, Steelers and Saints, followed by Giants and Josh Johnson in the playoffs. But their six games against more capable quarterbacks were also pretty impressive.

Rodgers (before getting hurt) and Prescott; those were arguably the best quarterbacks this defense faced, and both had some degree of success. With Mahomes arguably the league's best passer, those numbers are a lot more relevant than what was managed by the likes of Daniel Jones and Taylor Heinicke. But Mahomes should finish below his season averages (309 yards, with 41 touchdown passes), and his rushing production should be virtually nil. That gives a slight edge to his opponent on our board this week.

RUNNING BACKS:

Kansas City activated Clyde Edwards-Helaire from IR yesterday, but we're putting no stock in that. CEH hasn't stepped on the field since Week 11, and he hadn't been a factor in the offense for even longer than that. In his last three games before getting hurt he carried 6 times for 14 yards while catching 1 pass -- no one should be kicking around the possibility of the team dusting him off to be a focal point of the offense.

Isiah Pacheco will instead be the main runner, with Jerick McKinnon getting the most snaps in passing situations. Slight uncertainty there in that Pacheco's passing-game usage was ramped up in the AFC Championship Game. He caught 5 passes for 59 yards that day, surprising in that he totaled 11 receptions in his previous eight games. Clearly they won't be afraid to send him a few targets, and he should fare well with those opportunities. But that was an outlier performance, in a game where the running game was totally bottled up (Pacheco's 10 carries went for only 26 yards; as a team Kansas City ran for just 42). The Eagles ranked just 17th in run defense during the season, while Cincinnati was 7th; there should be more production on the ground in this one. Note also that while McKinnon caught only 2 passes against the Bengals, he still played nearly 40 percent of the snaps; the committee didn't change, at least in terms of playing time.

Rushing production should be better in this one, and Pacheco is more likely to punch in a short touchdown. The Eagles allowed 15 TDs on the ground, slightly worse than average, and 1 in each of their playoff games. But McKinnon will probably account for more of the receptions from the position. If one of these backs should happen to catch a touchdown, the veteran is a better bet.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

There's considerable uncertainty with the wide receivers. JuJu Smith-Schuster was best during the season, averaging 5 catches for 58 yards. Just 3 TDs, but he'll catch the most passes -- if healthy. Smith-Schuster left the AFC Championship game with a knee injury, then didn't practice at all last week. Kadarius Toney (ankle) is similar: knocked out of the Bengals game, didn't practice last week. Andy Reid sounded an optimistic tone on both players, saying he expected them to play in the Super Bowl, and we'll go along with that. But sounds like neither will be at 100 percent, and it's possible they'll be suiting up without getting in many (any?) reps leading up to the game. If they're out there, Smith-Schuster should catch more balls while Toney should get some opportunities to handle it (runs or receptions) around the goal line, but there's some risk with both. Definitely no Mecole Hardman (pelvis); he was placed on IR yesterday.

By default, then, Marquez Valdes-Scantling looks like the safest option. With all those players injured against Cincinnati, MVS stepped up to catch 6 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown. He hadn't reached 30 yards in any of his previous six, and had caught more than 3 passes in a game only once since Week 5. He won't be surprising anyone this time, and he's facing a considerably better pass defense, but seems about as likely (if not more so) than Smith-Schuster to lead the position in targets. Good at this pass defense was during the season, only six teams allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers (16). Philadelphia definitely has the top 2 options playing in this game, but Valdes-Scantling seems to be the No. 3.

Unless either Smith-Schuster or Toney winds up inactive, there shouldn't be another relative wideout. Justin Watson has 4 catches in his last seven games, despite playing plenty (presumably for his blocking). Skyy Moore hasn't been a factor as a rookie, outside of a punt return to help set up the winning points against the Bengals. He played a season-high 60 percent of the snaps in that game (with nearly everyone else hurt) but turned 7 targets into just 3 catches for 13 yards. Should one of the other wideouts be held out, Moore can be discussed as a possibility for another 5-plus targets. But the belief is those guys will be available.

TIGHT ENDS:

The Eagles allowed only 3 touchdowns to tight ends during the season, but the schedule didn't feature many notable ones. Nothing the level of Travis Kelce, certainly. Did the 33-year-old wear down late in the year? Not so much. During the season he averaged 6.5 catches for 79 yards, with 12 TDs. In his last six games, including the playoffs, he's caught 50 passes for 475 yards, with 3 TDs (all in the last two contests). The matchup suggests slightly lower odds than usual of Kelce getting in the end zone, but hard to realistically put any receiver from either team ahead of him in terms of likelihood of catching a touchdown at some point. Kansas City will put other tight ends on the field, primarily Noah Gray but also Jody Fortson, but neither player is likely to catch more than 1 pass (and lower than usual odds of either being on the other end of a touchdown throw).

KICKER:

If the Mahomes injury benefits anyone, it's Harrison Butker. The odds of the quarterback scrambling around near the end zone and making an unlikely goal line flip, as he did several times during the season, are much lower. Accordingly, Butker has kicked 5 field goals in the two playoff games, after kicking just 18 in 13 games during the regular season. The matchup isn't great (the Eagles allowed just 22 field goals and an average of 5.9 kicking points), but Butker seems a little more likely to knock in a short field or two than his counterpart.

DEFENSE:

Kansas City definitely has the more lightly regarded defense in this game, but it has some potential. While Patrick Mahomes has the ankle injury, this is his third appearance in the Super Bowl, while Jalen Hurts is appearing here for the first time. He was sacked 38 times in 15 games, and Kansas City had 55 sacks during the season, more than anyone but the Eagles themselves. Takeaways don't look as promising (Kansas City had 20, 11 interception and 9 fumble recoveries, while the Eagles turned it over only 19 times). Skyy Moore had a key punt return to help beat Cincinnati, but officials seemed to miss an illegal block on that play; the return teams weren't special during the season. Kansas City had a pair of interception return touchdowns during the season, but no other defensive scores.

Next: Super Bowl Player Rankings.