Those of us who grew up in the 80s and early 90s can recall a whole lot of noncompetitive Super Bowls. Give Mike Shanahan and the Denver Broncos credit for finally ending the NFC's streak by upsetting the Packers, then winning even bigger over Atlanta a year later. But that's ancient history; the games have been mostly close for a while now.

This looks like another one of those games. Kansas City has the seasoned, experienced quarterback and coach, playing in their third Super Bowl in five years. But the Eagles are also just five years removed from winning one of these games, and although it's mostly a different team now, the game shouldn't be too big for these players (Jalen Hurts, most notably, played in the occasional big game or two in college).

There's some injury uncertainty, factored into the projections. Patrick Mahomes can't move as well as usual, recovering from a high ankle sprain. He's had some recovery time since the Championship game, and they'll tape him up and whatnot, but he shouldn't run much and probably won't scramble as well as usual, which is a key part of what makes him difficult to defend -- the ad lib plays. Factor in Philadelphia's league-best pass rush, and I think it could be a factor in a close game.

But Jalen Hurts is coming off a shoulder injury that also might affect him, not as a runner but as a passer. He didn't really have to air it out in two easy playoff wins. He's facing a suspect pass defense, that gave up more touchdowns through the air than any other team, but I don't expect him to be zipping it around at his best.

Finally, Kansas City's top 2 wideouts, JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and Kadarius Toney (ankle), were both injured in the AFC Championship Game. Toney said yesterday he's definitely playing. Smith-Schuster hasn't said much, but it's the Super Bowl, and Andy Reid indicates he expects both to play. But neither is 100 percent, and those injuries could flare up at some point. I'm not a big Marquez Valdes-Scantling fan, but he was excellent in the AFC Championship Game and strikes me as a slightly safer choice from Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

PLAYER RANKINGS
RkPosTeamPlayerPassRunRecTotTDPTDTDTStdPPR
1QBPHIJalen Hurts2255202771.47.562.0325.725.7
2QBKCPatrick Mahomes272602801.83.061.8922.122.1
3TEKCTravis Kelce107778.01.52.5310.916.9
4WRPHIA.J. Brown007474.00.50.5010.314.9
5WRPHIDeVonta Smith006262.00.38.388.513.2
6TEPHIDallas Goedert006060.00.39.398.312.9
7RBKCIsiah Pacheco0581270.00.50.5610.311.5
8RBPHIMiles Sanders060565.00.52.559.810.9
9RBKCJerick McKinnon0202545.00.35.527.610.2
10WRKCM. Valdes-Scantling005050.00.26.266.29.1
11WRKCJuJu Smith-Schuster003838.00.19.194.77.7
12PKKCHarrison Butker0000.00.00.007.67.6
13WRKCKadarius Toney152631.00.26.315.17.4
14PKPHIJake Elliott0000.00.00.007.37.3
15RBPHIKenneth Gainwell022830.00.17.224.35.5
16WRPHIQuez Watkins001212.00.11.111.82.7
17WRKCSkyy Moore021113.00.04.051.62.5
18TEKCNoah Gray001111.00.06.061.52.5
19WRKCJustin Watson0088.00.04.041.01.5
20WRPHIZach Pascal0077.00.03.030.91.5
21RBPHIBoston Scott0606.00.05.071.01.1
22RBKCClyde Edwards-Helaire0516.00.03.050.6.8
23RBKCMichael Burton0123.00.02.030.5.7
24TEPHIJack Stoll0011.00.01.010.2.3
25TEKCJody Fortson0010.00.01.000.1.2
26TEPHIGrant Calcaterra0011.00.00.000.1.2
27WRPHIBritain Covey0000.00.00.010.1.1
28RBKCRonald Jones0000.00.00.000.0.0
29RBPHITrey Sermon0000.00.00.000.0.0

Below are the projections for the two defenses, in a scoring system that gives 1 point for sacks, 2 for takeaways, and 6 for touchdowns. Both pass rushes have potential, but the Eagles get the slight edge -- better during the season, and facing a quarterback with a bum wheel.

SUPER BOWL DEFENSES
DEFENSEFumIntSckDTDKTDFF Pts
Philadelphia.55.763.3.12.027.0
Kansas City.45.653.0.11.026.5

--Andy Richardson