Those of us who grew up in the 80s and early 90s can recall a whole lot of noncompetitive Super Bowls. Give Mike Shanahan and the Denver Broncos credit for finally ending the NFC's streak by upsetting the Packers, then winning even bigger over Atlanta a year later. But that's ancient history; the games have been mostly close for a while now.
This looks like another one of those games. Kansas City has the seasoned, experienced quarterback and coach, playing in their third Super Bowl in five years. But the Eagles are also just five years removed from winning one of these games, and although it's mostly a different team now, the game shouldn't be too big for these players (Jalen Hurts, most notably, played in the occasional big game or two in college).
There's some injury uncertainty, factored into the projections. Patrick Mahomes can't move as well as usual, recovering from a high ankle sprain. He's had some recovery time since the Championship game, and they'll tape him up and whatnot, but he shouldn't run much and probably won't scramble as well as usual, which is a key part of what makes him difficult to defend -- the ad lib plays. Factor in Philadelphia's league-best pass rush, and I think it could be a factor in a close game.
But Jalen Hurts is coming off a shoulder injury that also might affect him, not as a runner but as a passer. He didn't really have to air it out in two easy playoff wins. He's facing a suspect pass defense, that gave up more touchdowns through the air than any other team, but I don't expect him to be zipping it around at his best.
Finally, Kansas City's top 2 wideouts, JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and Kadarius Toney (ankle), were both injured in the AFC Championship Game. Toney said yesterday he's definitely playing. Smith-Schuster hasn't said much, but it's the Super Bowl, and Andy Reid indicates he expects both to play. But neither is 100 percent, and those injuries could flare up at some point. I'm not a big Marquez Valdes-Scantling fan, but he was excellent in the AFC Championship Game and strikes me as a slightly safer choice from Kansas City in the Super Bowl.
| PLAYER RANKINGS | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Pos | Team | Player | Pass | Run | Rec | Tot | TDP | TD | TDT | Std | PPR |
| 1 | QB | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 225 | 52 | 0 | 277 | 1.47 | .56 | 2.03 | 25.7 | 25.7 |
| 2 | QB | KC | Patrick Mahomes | 272 | 6 | 0 | 280 | 1.83 | .06 | 1.89 | 22.1 | 22.1 |
| 3 | TE | KC | Travis Kelce | 1 | 0 | 77 | 78 | .01 | .52 | .53 | 10.9 | 16.9 |
| 4 | WR | PHI | A.J. Brown | 0 | 0 | 74 | 74 | .00 | .50 | .50 | 10.3 | 14.9 |
| 5 | WR | PHI | DeVonta Smith | 0 | 0 | 62 | 62 | .00 | .38 | .38 | 8.5 | 13.2 |
| 6 | TE | PHI | Dallas Goedert | 0 | 0 | 60 | 60 | .00 | .39 | .39 | 8.3 | 12.9 |
| 7 | RB | KC | Isiah Pacheco | 0 | 58 | 12 | 70 | .00 | .50 | .56 | 10.3 | 11.5 |
| 8 | RB | PHI | Miles Sanders | 0 | 60 | 5 | 65 | .00 | .52 | .55 | 9.8 | 10.9 |
| 9 | RB | KC | Jerick McKinnon | 0 | 20 | 25 | 45 | .00 | .35 | .52 | 7.6 | 10.2 |
| 10 | WR | KC | M. Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 0 | 50 | 50 | .00 | .26 | .26 | 6.2 | 9.1 |
| 11 | WR | KC | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 0 | 0 | 38 | 38 | .00 | .19 | .19 | 4.7 | 7.7 |
| 12 | PK | KC | Harrison Butker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | .00 | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| 13 | WR | KC | Kadarius Toney | 1 | 5 | 26 | 31 | .00 | .26 | .31 | 5.1 | 7.4 |
| 14 | PK | PHI | Jake Elliott | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | .00 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| 15 | RB | PHI | Kenneth Gainwell | 0 | 22 | 8 | 30 | .00 | .17 | .22 | 4.3 | 5.5 |
| 16 | WR | PHI | Quez Watkins | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | .00 | .11 | .11 | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| 17 | WR | KC | Skyy Moore | 0 | 2 | 11 | 13 | .00 | .04 | .05 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| 18 | TE | KC | Noah Gray | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | .00 | .06 | .06 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| 19 | WR | KC | Justin Watson | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | .00 | .04 | .04 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 20 | WR | PHI | Zach Pascal | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | .00 | .03 | .03 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| 21 | RB | PHI | Boston Scott | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | .00 | .05 | .07 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 22 | RB | KC | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 | .00 | .03 | .05 | 0.6 | .8 |
| 23 | RB | KC | Michael Burton | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | .00 | .02 | .03 | 0.5 | .7 |
| 24 | TE | PHI | Jack Stoll | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .00 | .01 | .01 | 0.2 | .3 |
| 25 | TE | KC | Jody Fortson | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .00 | .01 | .00 | 0.1 | .2 |
| 26 | TE | PHI | Grant Calcaterra | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .00 | .00 | .00 | 0.1 | .2 |
| 27 | WR | PHI | Britain Covey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | .01 | 0.1 | .1 |
| 28 | RB | KC | Ronald Jones | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | .00 | 0.0 | .0 |
| 29 | RB | PHI | Trey Sermon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | .00 | 0.0 | .0 |
Below are the projections for the two defenses, in a scoring system that gives 1 point for sacks, 2 for takeaways, and 6 for touchdowns. Both pass rushes have potential, but the Eagles get the slight edge -- better during the season, and facing a quarterback with a bum wheel.
| SUPER BOWL DEFENSES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFENSE | Fum | Int | Sck | DTD | KTD | FF Pts |
| Philadelphia | .55 | .76 | 3.3 | .12 | .02 | 7.0 |
| Kansas City | .45 | .65 | 3.0 | .11 | .02 | 6.5 |
--Andy Richardson