The Super Bowl matchup underscores that there are different ways to put together a passing offense. The Eagles like to get the ball to their wide receivers; Kansas City, not so much.
Philadelphia’s wide receivers caught 35 more passes in the regular season, which isn’t dramatic – about 2 more per game. But when you consider the kind of passing numbers Patrick Mahomes put up, the difference becomes more pronounced.
The Eagles’ wide receivers accounted for 73 percent of their team’s receiving production. That’s No. 1 in the entire league. Kansas City’s, meanwhile, was down at 45 percent – next to last. (I’m using PPR scoring here, but the results would be similar using other scoring systems.)
While I think Mahomes will finish with the best passing numbers on Sunday, I like the Philadelphia receivers – A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (pictured) – a lot more than any of the Kansas City wide receivers.
| WIDE RECEIVER PRODUCTION RATIO | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | WR stats | Team totals | Pct |
| Philadelphia | 231-3196-22 | 350-4364-25 | 73% |
| Miami | 248-3741-19 | 368-4765-30 | 72% |
| Buffalo | 225-3074-24 | 361-4291-35 | 68% |
| Minnesota | 275-3458-21 | 448-4818-30 | 67% |
| LA Rams | 216-2369-13 | 347-3506-16 | 67% |
| Washington | 195-2639-19 | 344-3783-24 | 66% |
| Cincinnati | 242-3168-25 | 418-4520-35 | 66% |
| Jacksonville | 238-2677-19 | 394-4148-25 | 65% |
| Arizona | 266-2691-11 | 433-3966-17 | 65% |
| NY Giants | 200-2311-13 | 346-3431-17 | 64% |
| Tampa Bay | 299-3242-17 | 499-4746-26 | 64% |
| Carolina | 153-2152-12 | 267-3246-16 | 64% |
| Las Vegas | 203-2677-21 | 359-4182-28 | 63% |
| Green Bay | 200-2596-18 | 364-3890-27 | 62% |
| New England | 191-2421-15 | 358-3815-19 | 61% |
| Detroit | 233-2962-13 | 383-4444-29 | 61% |
| Dallas | 204-2520-16 | 355-3911-28 | 60% |
| Atlanta | 142-1899-10 | 257-2927-17 | 60% |
| Indianapolis | 224-2451-10 | 398-3854-17 | 60% |
| Seattle | 221-2633-19 | 399-4282-30 | 59% |
| LA Chargers | 260-3112-14 | 485-4791-26 | 58% |
| Cleveland | 174-2334-12 | 335-3710-19 | 58% |
| New Orleans | 182-2514-12 | 338-3969-24 | 58% |
| Denver | 180-2498-10 | 345-4007-18 | 57% |
| NY Jets | 189-2550-7 | 357-4040-15 | 57% |
| Chicago | 121-1588-10 | 223-2598-19 | 57% |
| Pittsburgh | 192-2164-5 | 364-3661-12 | 55% |
| Houston | 176-2154-9 | 352-3642-20 | 53% |
| San Francisco | 184-2316-12 | 338-4049-30 | 53% |
| Tennessee | 130-1595-6 | 285-3227-16 | 46% |
| Kansas City | 196-2653-13 | 435-5250-41 | 45% |
| Baltimore | 124-1517-7 | 300-3202-19 | 43% |
It’s a different story at running back. Kansas City’s running backs finished the season with over 3 times as many receiving yards as Philadelphia’s. KC’s running backs accounted for 20 percent of their team’s receiving production, putting them in the top quarter of the league. Philadelphia’s backs, meanwhile, accounted for only 8 percent of their team’s receiving production, the lowest of any offense in the league.
With this in mind, I like Jerick McKinnon more than Kenneth Gainwell. I realize that Gainwell has seen increased playing time in the last two weeks, but I think the better angle is to use McKinnon (in PPR formats for sure). I think there’s a decent chance McKinnon re-emerges as a factor in this game, catching 4-6 passes.
| RUNNING BACK PASS CATCHING | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | RB stats | Team totals | Pct |
| LA Chargers | 140-911-7 | 485-4791-26 | 24% |
| Tennessee | 70-680-4 | 285-3227-16 | 23% |
| San Francisco | 87-806-6 | 338-4049-30 | 22% |
| Tampa Bay | 128-831-5 | 499-4746-26 | 21% |
| Cincinnati | 103-796-7 | 418-4520-35 | 21% |
| Denver | 92-706-2 | 345-4007-18 | 20% |
| Kansas City | 89-826-12 | 435-5250-41 | 20% |
| NY Jets | 87-699-2 | 357-4040-15 | 20% |
| Green Bay | 88-618-5 | 364-3890-27 | 20% |
| Washington | 89-626-3 | 344-3783-24 | 20% |
| Houston | 98-525-2 | 352-3642-20 | 19% |
| Pittsburgh | 78-482-4 | 364-3661-12 | 19% |
| Indianapolis | 99-600-1 | 398-3854-17 | 19% |
| Carolina | 64-577-1 | 267-3246-16 | 19% |
| New Orleans | 85-650-2 | 338-3969-24 | 18% |
| New England | 94-568-1 | 358-3815-19 | 18% |
| Las Vegas | 92-678-2 | 359-4182-28 | 18% |
| Detroit | 82-684-4 | 383-4444-29 | 17% |
| Chicago | 46-414-2 | 223-2598-19 | 17% |
| NY Giants | 82-495-0 | 346-3431-17 | 17% |
| Arizona | 84-573-1 | 433-3966-17 | 16% |
| Cleveland | 67-464-2 | 335-3710-19 | 15% |
| Miami | 73-533-5 | 368-4765-30 | 15% |
| Dallas | 62-526-3 | 355-3911-28 | 15% |
| Buffalo | 71-540-3 | 361-4291-35 | 14% |
| Atlanta | 53-333-1 | 257-2927-17 | 14% |
| Jacksonville | 64-488-2 | 394-4148-25 | 13% |
| Seattle | 68-485-1 | 399-4282-30 | 12% |
| Minnesota | 66-493-3 | 448-4818-30 | 12% |
| Baltimore | 49-267-2 | 300-3202-19 | 12% |
| LA Rams | 49-361-0 | 347-3506-16 | 11% |
| Philadelphia | 48-262-0 | 350-4364-25 | 8% |
I’m not putting up the tight end numbers, but Kansas City’s finished at 35 percent in that category, 2nd-most behind only the tight end dominant Ravens. Philadelphia has a talented tight end, Dallas Goedert, but doesn’t use him extensively. The Eagles sent 19 percent of their receiving production to tight ends, ranking 22nd among the 32 teams.
—Ian Allan