Jamaal Williams was one of 2022's more surprising stars, scoring a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns for Detroit. It was nice timing, with Williams in a contract year. Detroit hopes to bring him back, but it will probably cost a little more than when they signed him two years ago. Unlikely he scores 17 touchdowns again.

Some decline is definitely in order, so I thought I'd take a guess as to how much. Can he at least score double-digit touchdowns again?

Over the last 10 years, 49 other backs have scored at least 10 touchdowns. (Rushing touchdowns; I left out receiving scores for this table.) Of those 49, about a quarter (12) have come back and rushed for at least 10 touchdowns again one year later. Ten others ran for at least 8 TDs that next season. So about a 45 percent success rate of at least rushing for another 8 touchdowns the following season.

Table shows all backs with at least 10 rushing scores since 2013, and their rushing numbers a year later, sorted by increase or decrease. Nine of them (about 1 in 5) rushed for more touchdowns in the ensuing season. Players who rushed for 10 TDs again are in bold, 8 TDs the next year are in italics.

2020Jonathan Taylor, Ind.2321169112021332181118+7
2017Todd Gurley, LAR2791305132018256125117+4
2018Derrick Henry, Ten.2151059122019303154016+4
2019Dalvin Cook, Min.2501135132020312155716+3
2021Derrick Henry, Ten.219937102022349153813+3
2021Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.237100210202223187612+2
2013Marshawn Lynch, Sea.3011257122014280130613+1
2019Derrick Henry, Ten.3031540162020378202717+1
2021Austin Ekeler, LAC20691112202220491513+1
2015Devonta Freeman, Atl.26510561120162271079110
2013Eddie Lacy, G.B.284117811201424611399-2
2015Jeremy Hill, Cin.2237941120162228399-2
2016Melvin Gordon, S.D.25499710201728411058-2
2018Melvin Gordon, LAC1758851020191626128-2
2013Jamaal Charles, K.C.259128712201420610339-3
2019Todd Gurley, LAR2238571220201956789-3
2020Josh Jacobs, L.V.27310651220212178729-3
2015Todd Gurley, St.L.22911061020162788856-4
2016Devonta Freeman, Atl.22710791120171968657-4
2016Latavius Murray, Oak.1957881220172168428-4
2020Antonio Gibson, Was.17079511202125810377-4
2020Nick Chubb, Cle.190106712202122812598-4
2018Saquon Barkley, NYG261130711201921710036-5
2018Todd Gurley, LAR256125117201922385712-5
2017Mark Ingram, N.O.23011241220181386456-6
2019Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.30113571220202449796-6
2021Joe Mixon, Cin.29212051320222108147-6
2014DeMarco Murray, Dall.39218451320151937026-7
2015DeAngelo Williams, Pitt.200907112016983434-7
2016LeSean McCoy, Buff.234126713201728711386-7
2019Aaron Jones, G.B.236108416202020111049-7
2020Derrick Henry, Ten.378202717202121993710-7
2016Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.32216311520172429837-8
2018James Conner, Pitt.2159731220191164644-8
2019Mark Ingram, Balt.2021018102020722992-8
2020Kenyan Drake, Ariz.239955102021632542-8
2021James Conner, Ariz.2027521520221837827-8
2013Knowshon Moreno, Den.2411038102014311481-9
2018Alvin Kamara, N.O.1948831420191717975-9
2013Adrian Peterson, Min.279126610201421750-10
2014Marshawn Lynch, Sea.28013061320151114173-10
2019Christian McCaffrey, Car.2871387152020592255-10
2020Dalvin Cook, Min.312155716202124911596-10
2015Adrian Peterson, Min.327148511201637720-11
2020Alvin Kamara, N.O.1879321620212408984-12
2021Damien Harris, N.E.2029291520221064623-12
2021Jonathan Taylor, Ind.33218111820221928614-14
2016David Johnson, Ariz.293123916201711230-16
2016LeGarrette Blount, N.E.29911611820171737662-16
2022Austin Ekeler, LAC204915132023????????????
2022Derrick Henry, Ten.3491538132023????????????
2022Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.231876122023????????????
2022Jamaal Williams, Det.2621066172023????????????
2022Josh Jacobs, L.V.3401653122023????????????
2022Miles Sanders, Phil.2591269112023????????????
2022Nick Chubb, Cle.3021525122023????????????
2022Saquon Barkley, NYG2951312102023????????????

Derrick Henry is the all-time king in this area. He's rushed for at least 10 TDs five years in a row.

Looking at the impressive collection of 2022 performers in this area -- eight backs who rushed for at least 10 TDs -- I notice they all picked a nice time to have those seasons. Four are headed for free agency. Nice contract-year push.

I expect Williams will re-up with the Lions, maybe even before free agency opens. Barkley, Sanders and Jacobs are less certain, though the franchise tag might be an option. Ian has mentioned the dearth of appealing free agent wideouts; the opposite looks true at the running back position.

--Andy Richardson