Jamaal Williams was one of 2022's more surprising stars, scoring a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns for Detroit. It was nice timing, with Williams in a contract year. Detroit hopes to bring him back, but it will probably cost a little more than when they signed him two years ago. Unlikely he scores 17 touchdowns again.
Some decline is definitely in order, so I thought I'd take a guess as to how much. Can he at least score double-digit touchdowns again?
Over the last 10 years, 49 other backs have scored at least 10 touchdowns. (Rushing touchdowns; I left out receiving scores for this table.) Of those 49, about a quarter (12) have come back and rushed for at least 10 touchdowns again one year later. Ten others ran for at least 8 TDs that next season. So about a 45 percent success rate of at least rushing for another 8 touchdowns the following season.
Table shows all backs with at least 10 rushing scores since 2013, and their rushing numbers a year later, sorted by increase or decrease. Nine of them (about 1 in 5) rushed for more touchdowns in the ensuing season. Players who rushed for 10 TDs again are in bold, 8 TDs the next year are in italics.
10-TD RUNNING BACKS, ONE YEAR LATER (2013-PRESENT) | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Att | Yds | TD | Next | Att | Yds | TD | +/- |
2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 232 | 1169 | 11 | 2021 | 332 | 1811 | 18 | +7 |
2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 279 | 1305 | 13 | 2018 | 256 | 1251 | 17 | +4 |
2018 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 215 | 1059 | 12 | 2019 | 303 | 1540 | 16 | +4 |
2019 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 250 | 1135 | 13 | 2020 | 312 | 1557 | 16 | +3 |
2021 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 219 | 937 | 10 | 2022 | 349 | 1538 | 13 | +3 |
2021 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 237 | 1002 | 10 | 2022 | 231 | 876 | 12 | +2 |
2013 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 301 | 1257 | 12 | 2014 | 280 | 1306 | 13 | +1 |
2019 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 303 | 1540 | 16 | 2020 | 378 | 2027 | 17 | +1 |
2021 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 206 | 911 | 12 | 2022 | 204 | 915 | 13 | +1 |
2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 265 | 1056 | 11 | 2016 | 227 | 1079 | 11 | 0 |
2013 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 284 | 1178 | 11 | 2014 | 246 | 1139 | 9 | -2 |
2015 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 223 | 794 | 11 | 2016 | 222 | 839 | 9 | -2 |
2016 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 254 | 997 | 10 | 2017 | 284 | 1105 | 8 | -2 |
2018 | Melvin Gordon, LAC | 175 | 885 | 10 | 2019 | 162 | 612 | 8 | -2 |
2013 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 259 | 1287 | 12 | 2014 | 206 | 1033 | 9 | -3 |
2019 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 223 | 857 | 12 | 2020 | 195 | 678 | 9 | -3 |
2020 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 273 | 1065 | 12 | 2021 | 217 | 872 | 9 | -3 |
2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 229 | 1106 | 10 | 2016 | 278 | 885 | 6 | -4 |
2016 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 227 | 1079 | 11 | 2017 | 196 | 865 | 7 | -4 |
2016 | Latavius Murray, Oak. | 195 | 788 | 12 | 2017 | 216 | 842 | 8 | -4 |
2020 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 170 | 795 | 11 | 2021 | 258 | 1037 | 7 | -4 |
2020 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 190 | 1067 | 12 | 2021 | 228 | 1259 | 8 | -4 |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 261 | 1307 | 11 | 2019 | 217 | 1003 | 6 | -5 |
2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 256 | 1251 | 17 | 2019 | 223 | 857 | 12 | -5 |
2017 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 230 | 1124 | 12 | 2018 | 138 | 645 | 6 | -6 |
2019 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 301 | 1357 | 12 | 2020 | 244 | 979 | 6 | -6 |
2021 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 292 | 1205 | 13 | 2022 | 210 | 814 | 7 | -6 |
2014 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 392 | 1845 | 13 | 2015 | 193 | 702 | 6 | -7 |
2015 | DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. | 200 | 907 | 11 | 2016 | 98 | 343 | 4 | -7 |
2016 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 234 | 1267 | 13 | 2017 | 287 | 1138 | 6 | -7 |
2019 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 236 | 1084 | 16 | 2020 | 201 | 1104 | 9 | -7 |
2020 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 378 | 2027 | 17 | 2021 | 219 | 937 | 10 | -7 |
2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 322 | 1631 | 15 | 2017 | 242 | 983 | 7 | -8 |
2018 | James Conner, Pitt. | 215 | 973 | 12 | 2019 | 116 | 464 | 4 | -8 |
2019 | Mark Ingram, Balt. | 202 | 1018 | 10 | 2020 | 72 | 299 | 2 | -8 |
2020 | Kenyan Drake, Ariz. | 239 | 955 | 10 | 2021 | 63 | 254 | 2 | -8 |
2021 | James Conner, Ariz. | 202 | 752 | 15 | 2022 | 183 | 782 | 7 | -8 |
2013 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 241 | 1038 | 10 | 2014 | 31 | 148 | 1 | -9 |
2018 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 194 | 883 | 14 | 2019 | 171 | 797 | 5 | -9 |
2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 279 | 1266 | 10 | 2014 | 21 | 75 | 0 | -10 |
2014 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 280 | 1306 | 13 | 2015 | 111 | 417 | 3 | -10 |
2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 287 | 1387 | 15 | 2020 | 59 | 225 | 5 | -10 |
2020 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 312 | 1557 | 16 | 2021 | 249 | 1159 | 6 | -10 |
2015 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 327 | 1485 | 11 | 2016 | 37 | 72 | 0 | -11 |
2020 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 187 | 932 | 16 | 2021 | 240 | 898 | 4 | -12 |
2021 | Damien Harris, N.E. | 202 | 929 | 15 | 2022 | 106 | 462 | 3 | -12 |
2021 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 332 | 1811 | 18 | 2022 | 192 | 861 | 4 | -14 |
2016 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 293 | 1239 | 16 | 2017 | 11 | 23 | 0 | -16 |
2016 | LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 299 | 1161 | 18 | 2017 | 173 | 766 | 2 | -16 |
2022 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 204 | 915 | 13 | 2023 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
2022 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 349 | 1538 | 13 | 2023 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
2022 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 231 | 876 | 12 | 2023 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
2022 | Jamaal Williams, Det. | 262 | 1066 | 17 | 2023 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
2022 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 340 | 1653 | 12 | 2023 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
2022 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 259 | 1269 | 11 | 2023 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
2022 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 302 | 1525 | 12 | 2023 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
2022 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 295 | 1312 | 10 | 2023 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
Derrick Henry is the all-time king in this area. He's rushed for at least 10 TDs five years in a row.
Looking at the impressive collection of 2022 performers in this area -- eight backs who rushed for at least 10 TDs -- I notice they all picked a nice time to have those seasons. Four are headed for free agency. Nice contract-year push.
I expect Williams will re-up with the Lions, maybe even before free agency opens. Barkley, Sanders and Jacobs are less certain, though the franchise tag might be an option. Ian has mentioned the dearth of appealing free agent wideouts; the opposite looks true at the running back position.
--Andy Richardson