I'm weary of the Aaron Rodgers stories. All of them talk about "Rodgers' decision," as if the Packers are waiting to hear what he wants to do in 2023. When in fact I think it's pretty certain that the team has made its own decision regardless of what Rodgers wants to do. Jordan Love will be Green Bay's quarterback in 2023.
This is not a slam on Rodgers (though I won't deny the guy is pretty unlikable). Green Bay with Rodgers at quarterback is a lot more likely to be a playoff team in 2023 than with Love. But the fact is that they've failed to get to the Super Bowl the last dozen years with Rodgers, and he's 39 years old. That relationship seems to have run its course. And they need to see what they have in Love, who's entering the fourth year of his rookie deal, just as Rodgers was in 2008 when the team pushed Brett Favre out the door. Bring Rodgers back, make Love sit another year, and they're paying Love franchise quarterback money a year from now even with him having started just a single game in his career.
The oddsmakers seem to believe that Rodgers will be elsewhere next year. The Detroit Lions are the favorites to win the NFC North next season. The Packers with Love are less likely to be competitive in the upcoming season. But he's 15 years younger. Assuming Rodgers even plays in 2023, it's very likely it's his final season, or perhaps next to last.
The negative is that if Love hits as a franchise quarterback, he'll be beating pretty long odds for quarterback selected where he was -- bottom third of the first round. Since 2000, just seven quarterbacks selected in that area of the draft have had even one top-20 season. Just two have had a top-12 season: Rodgers, and Lamar Jackson.
| LATE-FIRST ROUND QBS WITH TOP-20 SEASONS, 2000-PRESENT | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Year | Player | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | FF | Rk |
| 24 | 2016 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4428 | 40 | 7 | 369 | 4 | 446.3 | 1 |
| 24 | 2009 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4434 | 30 | 7 | 316 | 5 | 409.3 | 1 |
| 32 | 2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 3127 | 36 | 6 | 1206 | 7 | 463.0 | 1 |
| 24 | 2014 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4381 | 38 | 5 | 269 | 2 | 412.0 | 2 |
| 24 | 2012 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4295 | 39 | 8 | 259 | 2 | 411.6 | 2 |
| 24 | 2011 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4643 | 45 | 6 | 257 | 3 | 455.9 | 2 |
| 24 | 2010 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 3922 | 28 | 11 | 356 | 4 | 367.7 | 2 |
| 24 | 2008 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4038 | 28 | 13 | 207 | 4 | 362.6 | 2 |
| 24 | 2020 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4299 | 48 | 5 | 149 | 3 | 440.3 | 3 |
| 24 | 2018 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4442 | 25 | 2 | 269 | 2 | 367.0 | 7 |
| 24 | 2021 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4115 | 37 | 4 | 101 | 3 | 382.5 | 8 |
| 24 | 2015 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 3821 | 31 | 8 | 344 | 1 | 363.5 | 8 |
| 32 | 2020 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 2757 | 26 | 9 | 1005 | 7 | 386.4 | 10 |
| 24 | 2019 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4002 | 26 | 4 | 183 | 1 | 334.4 | 12 |
| 22 | 2006 | Rex Grossman, Chi. | 3193 | 23 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 252.5 | 13 |
| 24 | 2022 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 3695 | 26 | 12 | 94 | 1 | 308.2 | 13 |
| 22 | 2006 | J.P. Losman, Buff. | 3051 | 19 | 14 | 140 | 1 | 248.6 | 14 |
| 25 | 2009 | Jason Campbell, Was. | 3618 | 20 | 15 | 236 | 1 | 290.5 | 15 |
| 32 | 2021 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 2882 | 16 | 13 | 767 | 2 | 300.8 | 15 |
| 25 | 2008 | Jason Campbell, Was. | 3245 | 13 | 6 | 258 | 1 | 246.1 | 17 |
| 32 | 2022 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 2242 | 17 | 7 | 764 | 3 | 276.5 | 17 |
| 25 | 2007 | Jason Campbell, Was. | 2700 | 12 | 11 | 185 | 1 | 211.5 | 18 |
| 25 | 2011 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 1729 | 12 | 6 | 660 | 6 | 240.5 | 19 |
| 32 | 2020 | Teddy Bridgewater, Car. | 3733 | 15 | 11 | 279 | 5 | 306.6 | 19 |
| 22 | 2011 | Rex Grossman, Was. | 3151 | 16 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 228.7 | 20 |
Love's actual body of work is of course quite thin. He started a game at Kansas City in 2021, completing 19 of 34 for 190 yards and a touchdown, while running for 23 more. He threw a long touchdown to Christian Watson in relief during a loss at Philadelphia last season. His preseason work has been uneven (notably, he had a 3-interception game last August).
It might be another week or more before we know what will happen with Rodgers. But I'm sticking with my belief he'll be elsewhere before the draft -- Raiders, Jets (which seems to be the media's belief) or another team. And we'll see Love as the starter in Green Bay this summer, and in the 2023 season.
--Andy Richardson