Some drama was added to the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson situation yesterday, when Jackson revealed he's asked to be traded. It can be debated whether the Ravens or Jackson are being more stubborn in this contract standoff. But I think the Colts should think long and hard about making a run at the running quarterback.
Various teams have come out to say they're not interested in pursuing Jackson, either because they're happy with their own options at the position or no more eager to meet Jackson's contract demands than Baltimore to this point. One team that hasn't said they're not interested is the Colts, which is easy to understand.
The Colts have Gardner Minshew, who I've expressed some fondness for in the past, but the size of his contract (1 year, $3.5 million) makes it clear he's in no way considered a sure thing. Their other quarterbacks (Nick Foles, Sam Ehlinger) are just competing for a roster spot, probably behind the quarterback the team drafts at 1.04. But making an effort to trade for Jackson might be just as good a move.
At 1.04, the team isn't guaranteed to get any better than their 3rd-favorite quarterback coming out of college, with the Panthers definitely taking one at the top and the Texans probably taking one at 1.02. And some team might well trade ahead of the Colts with the Cardinals, picking at No. 3. Even assuming they get one of their top 2 choices, that player is a complete unknown, while Jackson is a former MVP.
The last four years, since Andrew Luck retired, the Colts have brought in four different veteran starting quarterbacks. Among the 100 quarterbacks who've started at least 12 games over the last four seasons, the Colts have sent out four of the 25 worst -- fantasy scoring -- quarterbacks, in terms of points per game. Not to rip Philip Rivers, who had a fine year while taking the team to playoffs, but he wasn't carrying the team, either.
Jackson in those four seasons has three of the top 25 seasons among those 100 quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points per game; his worst was 37th last year.
QUARTERBACK FANTASY POINTS PER GAME, 2019-2022 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | GS | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | FF/G |
2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 3127 | 36 | 6 | 1206 | 7 | 30.9 |
2022 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 4283 | 35 | 14 | 762 | 7 | 29.8 |
2020 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 4544 | 37 | 10 | 421 | 8 | 29.6 |
2020 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 15 | 4740 | 38 | 6 | 308 | 2 | 29.2 |
2022 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 17 | 5250 | 41 | 12 | 358 | 4 | 29.1 |
2022 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 15 | 3701 | 22 | 6 | 760 | 13 | 28.7 |
2021 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 17 | 4407 | 36 | 15 | 763 | 6 | 28.4 |
2020 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 3971 | 26 | 12 | 819 | 11 | 28.2 |
2020 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 4299 | 48 | 5 | 149 | 3 | 27.5 |
2020 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 16 | 4823 | 33 | 7 | 444 | 3 | 27.3 |
2020 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 4212 | 40 | 13 | 513 | 2 | 27.2 |
2021 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 17 | 5014 | 38 | 15 | 302 | 3 | 27.2 |
2021 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 17 | 5316 | 43 | 12 | 81 | 2 | 26.9 |
2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 5109 | 33 | 30 | 250 | 1 | 26.7 |
2022 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 16 | 4475 | 35 | 12 | 257 | 5 | 26.6 |
2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 4336 | 31 | 10 | 234 | 5 | 26.5 |
2021 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 17 | 4839 | 37 | 13 | 381 | 2 | 26.1 |
2019 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 15 | 3852 | 26 | 12 | 413 | 7 | 26.0 |
2019 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 4902 | 30 | 11 | 277 | 3 | 25.8 |
2020 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 2757 | 26 | 9 | 1005 | 7 | 25.8 |
2020 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 16 | 4633 | 40 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 25.6 |
2021 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 14 | 3787 | 24 | 10 | 423 | 5 | 25.6 |
2021 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 12 | 2882 | 16 | 13 | 767 | 2 | 25.1 |
2020 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 16 | 3819 | 33 | 7 | 266 | 7 | 24.9 |
2021 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 4449 | 37 | 10 | 146 | 1 | 24.8 |
2021 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 16 | 4611 | 34 | 14 | 118 | 2 | 24.5 |
2021 | Matthew Stafford, LAR | 17 | 4886 | 41 | 17 | 43 | 0 | 24.5 |
2019 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 14 | 4031 | 26 | 5 | 218 | 2 | 24.4 |
2021 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 15 | 3144 | 16 | 9 | 784 | 10 | 24.4 |
2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 3027 | 24 | 12 | 279 | 2 | 24.3 |
2020 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 16 | 4265 | 35 | 13 | 156 | 1 | 24.1 |
2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 12 | 3271 | 21 | 6 | 344 | 0 | 24.0 |
2019 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 4110 | 31 | 5 | 342 | 3 | 24.0 |
2021 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 4115 | 37 | 4 | 101 | 3 | 23.9 |
2019 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mia. | 13 | 3529 | 20 | 13 | 243 | 4 | 23.6 |
2019 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 15 | 4466 | 26 | 14 | 147 | 1 | 23.3 |
2022 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 12 | 2242 | 17 | 7 | 764 | 3 | 23.0 |
2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 15 | 2242 | 17 | 11 | 1143 | 8 | 23.0 |
2021 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 16 | 4221 | 33 | 7 | 115 | 1 | 22.5 |
2020 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 4581 | 26 | 11 | 92 | 2 | 22.3 |
2022 | Geno Smith, Sea. | 17 | 4282 | 30 | 11 | 366 | 1 | 22.2 |
2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 3722 | 20 | 12 | 544 | 4 | 21.9 |
2020 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 12 | 2620 | 16 | 15 | 276 | 5 | 21.9 |
2022 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 13 | 3548 | 25 | 8 | 70 | 0 | 21.9 |
2022 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 17 | 4547 | 29 | 14 | 97 | 2 | 21.8 |
2020 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 15 | 3803 | 33 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 21.8 |
2022 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 4113 | 25 | 8 | 291 | 5 | 21.8 |
2020 | Derek Carr, L.V. | 16 | 4103 | 27 | 9 | 140 | 3 | 21.7 |
2022 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 12 | 2860 | 23 | 15 | 182 | 1 | 21.6 |
2019 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 3089 | 20 | 9 | 510 | 9 | 21.6 |
2019 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 4039 | 27 | 7 | 243 | 1 | 21.5 |
2019 | Kyle Allen, Car. | 12 | 3322 | 17 | 16 | 106 | 2 | 21.4 |
2020 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 12 | 2942 | 24 | 6 | -2 | 2 | 21.2 |
2019 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 13 | 3494 | 16 | 14 | 73 | 4 | 21.1 |
2022 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 16 | 3205 | 15 | 5 | 708 | 7 | 21.1 |
2019 | Jared Goff, LAR | 16 | 4638 | 22 | 16 | 40 | 2 | 21.0 |
2019 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 4002 | 26 | 4 | 183 | 1 | 20.9 |
2020 | Jared Goff, LAR | 15 | 3952 | 20 | 13 | 99 | 4 | 20.9 |
2022 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 17 | 4739 | 25 | 10 | 147 | 0 | 20.9 |
2020 | Cam Newton, N.E. | 15 | 2657 | 8 | 10 | 592 | 12 | 20.6 |
2022 | Jared Goff, Det. | 17 | 4438 | 29 | 7 | 73 | 0 | 20.6 |
2021 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 14 | 3113 | 25 | 6 | 183 | 2 | 20.6 |
2019 | Philip Rivers, LAC | 16 | 4615 | 23 | 20 | 29 | 0 | 20.5 |
2020 | Teddy Bridgewater, Car. | 15 | 3733 | 15 | 11 | 279 | 5 | 20.4 |
2022 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 17 | 4694 | 25 | 9 | -1 | 1 | 20.3 |
2020 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 16 | 4084 | 26 | 10 | 112 | 0 | 20.2 |
2019 | Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F. | 16 | 3978 | 27 | 13 | 62 | 1 | 20.2 |
2021 | Derek Carr, L.V. | 17 | 4804 | 23 | 14 | 108 | 0 | 20.2 |
2019 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 4057 | 24 | 8 | 34 | 3 | 20.1 |
2021 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 17 | 3734 | 21 | 14 | 270 | 7 | 20.1 |
2019 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 15 | 3603 | 26 | 6 | 63 | 1 | 19.9 |
2021 | Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F. | 15 | 3810 | 20 | 12 | 51 | 3 | 19.7 |
2019 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 16 | 3827 | 22 | 21 | 141 | 3 | 19.6 |
2021 | Taylor Heinicke, Was. | 15 | 3419 | 20 | 15 | 313 | 1 | 19.4 |
2019 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 3024 | 19 | 13 | 62 | 2 | 19.3 |
2020 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 16 | 3563 | 26 | 8 | 165 | 1 | 19.3 |
2019 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 16 | 4054 | 21 | 8 | 82 | 2 | 19.2 |
2022 | Russell Wilson, Den. | 15 | 3524 | 16 | 11 | 277 | 3 | 19.1 |
2021 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 12 | 2653 | 16 | 10 | 128 | 3 | 19.1 |
2020 | Philip Rivers, Ind. | 16 | 4169 | 24 | 11 | -8 | 0 | 19.1 |
2020 | Drew Lock, Den. | 13 | 2933 | 16 | 15 | 160 | 3 | 19.0 |
2022 | Derek Carr, L.V. | 15 | 3522 | 24 | 14 | 102 | 0 | 18.8 |
2021 | Carson Wentz, Ind. | 17 | 3563 | 27 | 7 | 215 | 1 | 18.7 |
2022 | Marcus Mariota, Atl. | 13 | 2219 | 15 | 9 | 438 | 4 | 18.7 |
2022 | Matt Ryan, Ind. | 12 | 3057 | 14 | 13 | 70 | 1 | 18.5 |
2021 | Jared Goff, Det. | 14 | 3245 | 19 | 8 | 87 | 0 | 18.2 |
2022 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 17 | 3695 | 26 | 12 | 94 | 1 | 18.1 |
2019 | Jacoby Brissett, Ind. | 15 | 2942 | 18 | 6 | 228 | 4 | 17.9 |
2021 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 16 | 3740 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 17.8 |
2021 | Teddy Bridgewater, Den. | 14 | 3052 | 18 | 7 | 106 | 2 | 17.8 |
2021 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 14 | 3010 | 17 | 13 | 134 | 1 | 17.4 |
2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 17 | 3801 | 22 | 13 | 129 | 0 | 17.4 |
2021 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 17 | 3968 | 20 | 12 | 82 | 1 | 17.3 |
2020 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 14 | 2943 | 11 | 10 | 423 | 1 | 17.2 |
2019 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 15 | 3138 | 17 | 10 | 193 | 2 | 17.2 |
2022 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 12 | 2536 | 13 | 6 | 98 | 2 | 16.9 |
2022 | Davis Mills, Hou. | 15 | 3118 | 17 | 15 | 108 | 2 | 16.6 |
2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 3641 | 12 | 17 | 334 | 2 | 16.4 |
2022 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 14 | 2997 | 14 | 11 | 102 | 1 | 16.0 |
2022 | Andy Dalton, N.O. | 14 | 2871 | 18 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 15.9 |
Merely signing Jackson while he's on the franchise tag would cost the Colts two first-round picks, one of which is of course No. 4 overall. And the contract needs to be such that the Ravens wouldn't match. But perhaps a deal can be worked out, with the Ravens apparently hesitant to commit to Jackson long-term, and maybe enamored of one of the rookies they could select with that pick. Some risk for the Ravens, of course, but it's a deal that might make sense for the Colts. Considerable risk in selecting a rookie and hoping that player works out. With Jackson, they could at least put an end to their annual search for a new quarterback.
--Andy Richardson