A report by Adam Schefter yesterday indicated that Ezekiel Elliott is hoping to make his decision soon on where to play next year. The report was surprising, in that Elliott didn't seem likely to have multiple good options. According to Schefter, he does.
He's narrowed his options down to the Eagles, Bengals and Jets, which seem like pretty great options (for him). The Eagles and Bengals were two of the final four teams a year ago, with the Eagles going to the Super Bowl. They let Miles Sanders walk in free agency, and to this point have only replaced him with Rashaad Penny (who's making a pittance in 2023). Penny is a much better runner than Elliott at this point, but he's not more durable.
The Bengals actually make quite a bit of sense -- if they release Joe Mixon, as has been speculated. They also lost Samaje Perine, so it could be a void in the backfield. But Mixon is still on the roster.
The Jets are a little harder to figure, unless there is some concern about Breece Hall's recovery from a torn ACL last October. Hall himself was none too happy, sending out a Tweet that said "I think we're good here" and then deleting it. Elliott with the Jets wouldn't be great news for anyone looking to invest in that backfield.
In any case, it's a little surprising that there's three contending (theoretically on the part of the Jets) teams apparently interested in bringing Elliott in. He'll turn 28 this summer, which isn't ancient but is kind of old for a running back these days. And it's not just the years but the mileage -- he's had a heavy workload for the last seven seasons (nine if you want to include his back-to-back 300-touch seasons at Ohio State).
Looking at his numbers, all that work seems to have taken its toll. Over the past five years, it's been a steady decline in nearly every statistical measurable. In the table, I've bolded all the stats that show a decline from the previous seasons. Lots of bold -- attempts, yards, receptions, etc.
| ELLIOTT'S YEAR TO YEAR DECLINE | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Att | Run | TD | Avg | Run/G | No | Rec | Y/R | TD | Rec/G |
| 2018 | 304 | 1434 | 6 | 4.7 | 95.6 | 77 | 567 | 7.4 | 3 | 37.8 |
| 2019 | 301 | 1357 | 12 | 4.5 | 84.8 | 54 | 420 | 7.8 | 2 | 26.3 |
| 2020 | 244 | 979 | 6 | 4.0 | 65.3 | 52 | 338 | 6.5 | 2 | 22.5 |
| 2021 | 237 | 1002 | 10 | 4.2 | 58.9 | 47 | 287 | 6.1 | 2 | 16.9 |
| 2022 | 231 | 876 | 12 | 3.8 | 58.4 | 17 | 92 | 5.4 | 0 | 6.1 |
The noteworthy area that Elliott hasn't declined is in terms of rushing touchdowns (12 last year). If the offense gets down around the goal line, he remains pretty adept at punching the ball in. That of course is why his presence would be a drag on the incumbent backs on those teams. If you're selecting Penny, as a for instance, you don't want Elliott getting the carries inside the 5-yard-line.
In any case, if Schefter's report is to be believed, some otherwise intriguing backfield is about to have a wrench thrown it by the name of Elliott.
--Andy Richardson