I don’t know who I’ll be picking at kicker this year. But I know it won’t be Jake Elliott. I’ve made that mistake before.
Elliott is a capable enough kicker. He’s converted 89 percent of his field goals over the last two years. But I don’t have any confidence the Eagles will get him on the field enough. More so than other teams, they prefer to leave their offense on the field on fourth downs, trying for touchdowns rather than field goal attempts.
That’s admirable and cool. The league would be better if more teams did the same. But it’s a killer for us fantasy guys holding the kicker of such a team. I started off with Elliott last year, and he cost me a couple of close games before I swapped him out – games I would have won with more conservative play-calling.
Fool me once, shame on you.
Now with the benefit of hindsight, we can sift through the wreckage, assessing the damage. With that style of play-calling, the Eagles last year had the only offense that generated over twice as many touchdowns as field goal attempts. They ranked next-to-last in field goal tries.
Including the playoffs, there were 23 instances where the Eagles could have attempted a field goal but instead left their offense on the field. They fared remarkably well on those plays, picking up the first down (or scoring) on all but four of them. With that kind of success rate, I imagine they’ll be attempting plenty more fourth-down plays in the red zone this year.
In the chart below, the unsuccessful fourth downs are tagged with black dots.
| EAGLES SKIPPING FIELD GOAL OPPORTUNITIES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opp | Down | Yd line | Detail |
| 9/11/22 | Det. | 4th-and-1 | DET 1 | Hurts 1 run, TD |
| 9/25/22 | Was. | 4th-and-1 | WAS 8 | • Pascal 0 run |
| 9/25/22 | Was. | 4th-and-2 | WAS 2 | Hurts 2 pass to Smith, TD |
| 10/2/22 | Jac. | 4th-and-3 | JAX 3 | Hurts 3 run, TD |
| 10/2/22 | Jac. | 4th-and-3 | JAX 21 | • Incomplete (Hurts to Brown) |
| 10/2/22 | Jac. | 4th-and-1 | JAX 12 | Hurts 2 run |
| 10/9/22 | Ariz. | 4th-and-1 | AZ 3 | Hurts 2 run |
| 10/16/22 | Dall. | 4th-and-4 | DAL 10 | Penalty 5 yards (neutral zone) |
| 11/3/22 | Hou. | 4th-and-2 | HOU 2 | Sanders 2 run, TD |
| 11/20/22 | Ind. | 4th-and-2 | IND 9 | Hurts 3 run |
| 11/27/22 | G.B. | 4th-and-2 | GB 35 | Hurts 2 run |
| 12/4/22 | Ten. | 4th-and-1 | TEN 4 | Hurts 1 run |
| 12/4/22 | Ten. | 4th-and-1 | TEN 15 | Hurts 2 run |
| 12/18/22 | Chi. | 4th-and-3 | CHI 34 | Hurts 3 run |
| 12/18/22 | Chi. | 4th-and-6 | CHI 33 | • Incomplete (Hurts to Brown) |
| 12/24/22 | Dall. | 4th-and-10 | DAL 19 | • Incomplete (Minshew to Brown) |
| 12/24/22 | Dall. | 4th-and-3 | DAL 14 | Minshew 14 pass to Smith, TD |
| 12/24/22 | Dall. | 4th-and-1 | DAL 1 | Minshew 1 run, TD |
| 1/29/23 | S.F. | 4th-and-3 | SF 35 | Hurts 29 pass to Smith |
| 1/29/23 | S.F. | 4th-and-10 | SF 28 | Penalty 14 yards (un. roughness) |
| 1/29/23 | S.F. | 4th-and-2 | SF 23 | Gainwell 6 run |
| 2/12/23 | K.C. | 4th-and-2 | KC 8 | Penalty 4 yards (neutral zone) |
| 2/12/23 | K.C. | 4th-and-1 | KC 21 | Hurts 2 run |
So count me out on Elliott. But in fairness to those who are willing to take a longer look at him, I should point out that Elliott was able to overcome this dynamic late last year. The Eagles averaged only 5.7 kicking points in their first 10 games, which is a bottom-5 number, but Elliott averaged 8.6 points in his final 10 including the playoffs, which is more of a top-5 number. Overall, the Eagles scored 119 kicking points last year, which is close to the league average.
But for me personally, too much bad history with the player.
—Ian Allan