Plan B - Hit rates for running backs selected in the middle rounds

Rookie running backs can be slippery to evaluate. Particularly those selected in the later rounds. With the vast majority of these players, you’re not looking for overall value. You’re instead hoping you can latch onto a few viable games at some point during the season.

With running backs like Israel Abanikanda, Eric Gray and Tyjae Spears, we’re looking more at insurance-policy type guys, rather than players who might finish with top-30 overall numbers. If these players can be used for three-four starts in December, they’ll be successful choices, even if their overall production doesn’t rank them among the top 50 running backs.

With that in mind, reasonable to take a step back and look at the hit-miss rates of these kind of backs. On this one, I’m focusing on the third, fourth and fifth rounds. With the guys picked earlier, the decision making is different (when you choose Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson, you’re looking for every-week production). And the late-round guys, it’s tough to count on much from them (though Isiah Pacheco hit big last year).

We all use different scoring systems – PPR, standard, TD-only. I didn’t want to dabble in “fantasy points” because those can be tough to follow if the scoring system doesn’t match your own. So I’m instead using 50 rushing yards as a benchmark of sorts. If a player runs for 50-plus yards in a game, he’s a starter of sorts – definitely a contributor. Counting up those games gives us some sense of how many useful weeks rookies are generating.

Starting with third-round running backs. There were 32 selected in the 2013-2022 drafts. Two home-run type guys in that group: Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara (who caught a zillion passes, which aren’t reflected here). Three others ran for at least 50 yards in at least half of their team’s games. Then it tails off pretty quickly.

Four rookies selected in the third round this year: Kendre Miller, Tyjae Spears, Devon Achane, Tank Bigsby. The numbers suggest you’ll be fortunate if you can get much out of any of these guys. With Miller, there’s the decent likelihood that Kamara will be suspended for six games, but they also have Jamaal Williams.

In the chart below, the third column is the key one. It shows the number of games the player ran for at least 50 yards. The additional stats (courtesy pro-football-reference) show the rushing stats of the game in which the player ran for the most yards. (I didn’t want to get into listing a phonebook’s worth of games, so a limit of one game for each guy, showing you his top-end.)

NUMBER OF 50-YARD GAMES BY BACKS DRAFTED IN 3RD ROUND (last 10 yrs)
Year	Player	Num	Opp	Result	Att	Yards	TD
2017	Kareem Hunt, K.C.	10	at LAC	W 24-10	17	172	1
2022	Brian Robinson, Was.	9	Atl.	W 19-13	18	105	0
2019	David Montgomery, Chi.	9	LAC	L 16-17	27	135	1
2019	Devin Singletary, Buff.	8	Den.	W 20-3	21	106	0
2014	Tre Mason, St.L.	7	Oak.	W 52-0	14	117	2
2020	Antonio Gibson, Was.	6	Dall.	W 25-3	20	128	1
2017	Alvin Kamara, N.O.	6	at Buff.	W 47-10	12	106	1
2014	Terrance West, Cle.	6	at Pitt.	L 27-30	16	100	0
2019	Alexander Mattison, Min.	5	Phil.	W 38-20	14	63	0
2014	Jerick McKinnon, Min.	5	Atl.	W 41-28	18	135	0
2020	Zack Moss, Buff.	4	at Den.	W 48-19	13	81	0
2018	Royce Freeman, Den.	4	Sea.	W 27-24	15	71	0
2022	Rachaad White, T.B.	3	Sea.	W 21-16	22	105	0
2015	David Johnson, Ari.	3	at Phil.	W 40-17	29	187	3
2015	Matt Jones, Was.	3	St.L.	W 24-10	19	123	2
2017	D'Onta Foreman, Hou.	2	Ari.	W 31-21	10	65	2
2016	C.J. Prosise, Sea.	2	Phil.	W 26-15	4	76	1
2015	Tevin Coleman, Atl.	2	Min.	L 10-20	18	110	0
2021	Trey Sermon, S.F.	1	Sea.	L 21-28	19	89	0
2020	KeShawn Vaughn, T.B.	1	at Det.	W 47-7	15	62	0
2016	Kenyan Drake, Mia.	1	at Buff.	W 34-31	4	56	1
2015	Duke Johnson, Cle.	1	S.F.	W 24-10	13	78	0
2014	Charles Sims, T.B.	1	N.O.	L 20-23	18	69	1
2013	Knile Davis, K.C.	1	at S.D.	L 24-27	27	81	2
2023	Kendre Miller, N.O.	?	?	?	?	?	?
2023	Tyjae Spears, Ten.	?	?	?	?	?	?
2023	Devon Achane, Mia.	?	?	?	?	?	?
2023	Tank Bigsby, Jac.	?	?	?	?	?	?

Looking at the same stats for the fourth round backs, and they’re pretty bleak. There have been 44 drafted, with just one solid hit: Dameon Pierce, and he made it clear in the preseason last year that he was going to be pretty good. Chuba Hubbard had some value the previous year, when Christian McCaffrey was hurt for most of the season.

Only one running back selected in the fourth round this year, Roschon Johnson, and he’ll be competing for carries with two other notable running backs and a quarterback who might run for more yards than all of them.

NUMBER OF 50-YARD GAMES BY BACKS DRAFTED IN 4TH ROUND (last 10 yrs)
Year	Player	Num	Opp	Result	Att	Yards	TD
2022	Dameon Pierce, Hou.	9	Phil.	L 17-29	27	139	0
2021	Chuba Hubbard, Car.	6	Phil.	L 18-21	24	101	0
2017	Jamaal Williams, G.B.	6	T.B.	W 26-20	21	113	1
2014	Andre Williams, NYG	6	at Ten.	W 36-7	24	131	1
2021	Michael Carter, NYJ	5	Jac.	W 26-21	16	118	0
2021	Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E.	5	Jac.	W 50-10	19	107	2
2016	Devontae Booker, Den.	5	Hou.	W 27-9	17	83	1
2015	Javorius Allen, Balt.	5	Pitt.	W 20-17	17	77	1
2019	Benny Snell, Pitt.	4	at Cin.	W 16-10	21	98	0
2017	Samaje Perine, Was.	4	at N.O.	L 31-34	23	117	1
2015	Jeremy Langford, Chi.	4	at T.B.	W 26-21	19	83	0
2019	Tony Pollard, Dall.	3	LAR	W 44-21	12	131	1
2017	Tarik Cohen, Chi.	3	at Cin.	W 33-7	12	80	0
2017	Wayne Gallman, NYG	3	Was.	W 18-10	15	89	0
2020	Joshua Kelley, LAC	2	K.C.	L 20-23	23	64	0
2018	Ito Smith, Atl.	2	at G.B.	L 20-34	11	60	0
2016	Kenneth Dixon, Balt.	2	at Pitt.	L 27-31	12	57	0
2014	Lorenzo Taliaferro, Balt.	2	at Cle.	W 23-21	18	91	1
2022	Pierre Strong, N.E.	1	at Ari.	W 27-13	5	70	1
2018	Kalen Ballage, Mia.	1	at Min.	L 17-41	12	123	1
2018	Nyheim Hines, Ind.	1	at Oak.	W 42-28	11	78	0
2018	Chase Edmonds, Ari.	1	at G.B.	W 20-17	5	53	2
2017	Marlon Mack, Ind.	1	S.F.	W 26-23	9	91	1
2014	KaDeem Carey, Chi.	1	G.B.	L 17-38	14	72	0
2013	Johnathan Franklin, G.B.	1	at Cin.	L 30-34	13	103	1
2023	Roschon Johnson, Chi.	?	?	?	?	?	?

When we get down to the fifth round, we’re in the area where it’s common for players to not even make it on the field. Some will wind up on practice squads. There have been 33 selected in the last 10 years. I think just one really big hit, Jordan Howard of the 2016 Bears. Two others who ran for 50-plus yards in over half of their teams games: Tyler Allgeier and Zac Stacy. And then not much from the rest.

There were four selected in the fifth round this year: Israel Abanikanda, Chase Brown, Eric Gray and Evan Hull.

Brown (pictured) is in the best situation. The Bengals don’t have much else at the position and probably will want to squeeze Joe Mixon to take a pay cut, possibly (but probably not) even releasing him. And Mixon, like Kamara, is a candidate for a league suspension as he faces charges that he pointed a pistol at a woman. But I wouldn’t think the Bengals, being a Super Bowl contender, would be comfortable going into the season with Brown as their starting tailback. I don’t think he’s quite big enough or good enough, and he definitely isn’t experienced enough to give them what they need in the passing game.

NUMBER OF 50-YARD GAMES BY BACKS DRAFTED IN 5TH ROUND (last 10 yrs)
Year	Player	Num	Opp	Result	Att	Yards	TD
2022	Tyler Allgeier, Atl.	11	at N.O.	L 18-21	17	139	1
2016	Jordan Howard, Chi.	11	Min.	W 20-10	26	153	1
2013	Zac Stacy, St.L.	10	Sea.	L 9-14	26	134	0
2015	Karlos Williams, Buff.	4	Mia.	W 33-17	9	110	2
2016	Paul Perkins, NYG	3	at Was.	W 19-10	21	102	0
2021	Kenneth Gainwell, Phil.	2	Dall.	L 26-51	12	78	1
2018	Jordan Wilkins, Ind.	2	at Was.	W 21-9	10	61	0
2017	Aaron Jones, G.B.	2	N.O.	L 17-26	17	131	1
2016	DeAndre Washington, Oak.	2	Ind.	W 33-25	12	99	2
2016	Wendell Smallwood, Phil.	2	Pitt.	W 34-3	17	79	1
2013	Joseph Randle, Dall.	2	at Phil.	W 17-3	19	65	0
2016	Alex Collins, Sea.	1	at S.F.	W 25-23	7	55	0
2015	David Cobb, Ten.	1	at Ind.	L 24-30	19	73	1
2015	Cameron Artis-Payne, Car.	1	at NYG	W 38-35	14	59	0
2023	Israel Abanikanda, NYJ	?	?	?	?	?	?
2023	Chase Brown, Cin.	?	?	?	?	?	?
2023	Eric Gray, NYG	?	?	?	?	?	?

—Ian Allan

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