Hayden Hurst and Dalton Schultz worked last year with Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott. Now they’re both going to be playing with rookie quarterbacks selected with top-5 picks. What kind of impact, if any, is that likely to have on their numbers?
I mention it because a couple of times in this offseason I have heard the suggestion that a rookie quarterback can be a good thing for a tight end – with more shorter passes. I heard some chatter on a podcast about Schultz (pictured) being a big part of Houston’s offense. And Hurst said when he signed (before the Panthers even picked Bryce Young) that he expects to play a big role in their passing game.
“Tight ends are always a quarterback’s best friend,” Hurst said in an article on the team’s website. “Especially [for] a rookie coming in, you want that reliable guy in the middle of the field, where your vision is. Obviously, you need the guys on the outside, too, to make your life easier. But if you can have that reliable guy where you know he’s going to be somewhere within 10 yards or going down the middle of the field, and just put it up, that’s why I came here.”
It got me curious to look at the past numbers, and they’re not as bad as I expected. In the 32-team era, there have been 41 quarterbacks selected in the first round who started most of their rookie season. Nine of those teams had a top-10 tight end, and another seven had one in the top 20. (If you’re a glass half-empty kind of guy, 24 of those 41 teams didn’t have a top-20 tight end.)
But to sharpen the focus a little, consider the stats this way. Below you’re seeing the 41 tight ends who were the position leaders for each of those teams. Fourteen of those players posted top-20 stats the year before the rookie showed up, and all but three again posted top-20 numbers with the rookie starting most of the season. (These 14 quarterbacks are tagged with black dots).
Fine-tuning it further, there were eight tight ends who posted top-12 numbers the year before the rookie showed up. All but two of those again posted top-12 numbers (using PPR scoring). Marcedes Lewis and Kyle Brady fell apart statistically, but the others were all just fine.
If Bryce Young is the quick-thinking deliverer of the ball that he’s supposed to be, then I guess maybe a credible season for Hurst? And maybe Schultz can be a security-blanket type guy, hanging with the Tyler Higbees of the position. I don’t think I’ll be selecting either Schultz or Hurst, but it seems reasonable for them to be picked in the last couple rounds of a draft as second tight ends.
LEADING TIGHT ENDS WITH ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk | Quarterback | Prev Yr |
2002 | Mikhael Ricks, Det. | 27 | 339 | 3 | 78.9 | 22 | Joey Harrington | 18-252-1 |
2002 | Billy Miller, Hou. | 51 | 613 | 3 | 130.3 | 6 | David Carr | college |
2003 | • Todd Heap, Balt. | 57 | 693 | 3 | 154.4 | 3 | Kyle Boller | 68-836-6 |
2003 | • Kyle Brady, Jac. | 29 | 281 | 1 | 63.1 | 29 | Byron Leftwich | 43-461-4 |
2004 | Jerame Tuman, Pitt. | 9 | 89 | 3 | 35.9 | 45 | Ben Roethlisberger | 12-113-0 |
2006 | Bo Scaife, Ten. | 29 | 370 | 2 | 85.3 | 18 | Vince Young | 37-273-2 |
2006 | Leonard Pope, Ariz. | 16 | 161 | 0 | 32.1 | 49 | Matt Leinart | college |
2008 | Justin Peelle, Atl. | 15 | 159 | 2 | 42.9 | 40 | Matt Ryan | 29-228-2 |
2008 | Todd Heap, Balt. | 35 | 403 | 3 | 93.3 | 24 | Joe Flacco | 23-239-1 |
2009 | • Dustin Keller, NYJ | 45 | 522 | 2 | 111.9 | 19 | Mark Sanchez | 48-535-3 |
2009 | • Kellen Winslow, T.B. | 77 | 884 | 5 | 196.1 | 7 | Josh Freeman | 43-428-3 |
2009 | Brandon Pettigrew, Det. | 30 | 346 | 2 | 76.6 | 27 | Matthew Stafford | college |
2010 | Daniel Fells, St.L. | 41 | 391 | 2 | 92.1 | 28 | Sam Bradford | 21-273-3 |
2011 | • Marcedes Lewis, Jac. | 39 | 460 | 0 | 85.0 | 30 | Blaine Gabbert | 58-700-10 |
2011 | Visanthe Shiancoe, Min. | 36 | 409 | 3 | 94.9 | 27 | Christian Ponder | 47-530-2 |
2011 | Greg Olsen, Car. | 45 | 540 | 5 | 131.0 | 18 | Cam Newton | 41-404-5 |
2012 | Anthony Fasano, Mia. | 41 | 332 | 5 | 106.2 | 28 | Ryan Tannehill | 32-451-5 |
2012 | Benjamin Watson, Cle. | 49 | 501 | 3 | 117.1 | 24 | Brandon Weeden | 37-410-2 |
2012 | Logan Paulsen, Was. | 25 | 308 | 1 | 61.8 | 40 | Robert Griffin | 11-138-0 |
2012 | Dwayne Allen, Ind. | 45 | 521 | 3 | 115.6 | 25 | Andrew Luck | college |
2013 | • Scott Chandler, Buff. | 53 | 655 | 2 | 130.5 | 16 | EJ Manuel | 43-571-6 |
2014 | Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 24 | 231 | 2 | 59.1 | 38 | Teddy Bridgewater | 30-313-3 |
2014 | Clay Harbor, Jac. | 26 | 289 | 1 | 60.9 | 37 | Blake Bortles | 24-292-2 |
2015 | • Delanie Walker, Ten. | 94 | 1088 | 6 | 244.4 | 3 | Marcus Mariota | 63-890-4 |
2015 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins, T.B. | 21 | 338 | 4 | 78.8 | 32 | Jameis Winston | 21-221-2 |
2016 | • Zach Ertz, Phil. | 78 | 816 | 4 | 183.6 | 6 | Carson Wentz | 75-853-2 |
2017 | • Zach Miller, Chi. | 20 | 236 | 2 | 55.6 | 40 | Mitchell Trubisky | 47-486-4 |
2018 | David Njoku, Cle. | 56 | 639 | 4 | 143.9 | 9 | Baker Mayfield | 32-386-4 |
2018 | Ricky Seals-Jones, Ariz. | 34 | 343 | 1 | 74.3 | 29 | Josh Rosen | 12-201-3 |
2018 | Chris Herndon, NYJ | 39 | 502 | 4 | 113.2 | 16 | Sam Darnold | college |
2018 | Jason Croom, Buff. | 22 | 259 | 1 | 59.9 | 37 | Josh Allen | college |
2019 | • Evan Engram, NYG | 44 | 467 | 3 | 109.4 | 18 | Daniel Jones | 45-577-3 |
2019 | Charles Clay, Ariz. | 18 | 237 | 1 | 47.7 | 45 | Kyler Murray | 21-184-0 |
2020 | • Hunter Henry, LAC | 60 | 613 | 4 | 145.3 | 12 | Justin Herbert | 55-652-5 |
2020 | • Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 53 | 703 | 6 | 159.3 | 7 | Tua Tagovailoa | 51-570-5 |
2020 | Drew Sample, Cin. | 40 | 349 | 1 | 80.9 | 30 | Joe Burrow | 5-30-0 |
2021 | • Hunter Henry, N.E. | 50 | 603 | 9 | 164.3 | 10 | Mac Jones | 60-613-4 |
2021 | Cole Kmet, Chi. | 60 | 612 | 0 | 121.2 | 21 | Justin Fields | 28-243-2 |
2021 | Ryan Griffin, NYJ | 27 | 261 | 2 | 65.1 | 38 | Zach Wilson | 9-86-0 |
2021 | James O'Shaughnessy, Jac. | 24 | 244 | 0 | 50.4 | 50 | Trevor Lawrence | 28-262-0 |
2022 | • Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 63 | 732 | 2 | 148.2 | 8 | Kenny Pickett | 60-497-7 |
2022 | Hayden Hurst, Car. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | Bryce Young | 52-414-2 |
2023 | • Dalton Schultz, Hou. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | C.J. Stroud | 57-577-5 |
2023 | Jelani Woods, Ind. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | Anthony Richardson | 25-312-3 |
—Ian Allan