Hayden Hurst and Dalton Schultz worked last year with Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott. Now they’re both going to be playing with rookie quarterbacks selected with top-5 picks. What kind of impact, if any, is that likely to have on their numbers?

I mention it because a couple of times in this offseason I have heard the suggestion that a rookie quarterback can be a good thing for a tight end – with more shorter passes. I heard some chatter on a podcast about Schultz (pictured) being a big part of Houston’s offense. And Hurst said when he signed (before the Panthers even picked Bryce Young) that he expects to play a big role in their passing game.

“Tight ends are always a quarterback’s best friend,” Hurst said in an article on the team’s website. “Especially [for] a rookie coming in, you want that reliable guy in the middle of the field, where your vision is. Obviously, you need the guys on the outside, too, to make your life easier. But if you can have that reliable guy where you know he’s going to be somewhere within 10 yards or going down the middle of the field, and just put it up, that’s why I came here.”

It got me curious to look at the past numbers, and they’re not as bad as I expected. In the 32-team era, there have been 41 quarterbacks selected in the first round who started most of their rookie season. Nine of those teams had a top-10 tight end, and another seven had one in the top 20. (If you’re a glass half-empty kind of guy, 24 of those 41 teams didn’t have a top-20 tight end.)

But to sharpen the focus a little, consider the stats this way. Below you’re seeing the 41 tight ends who were the position leaders for each of those teams. Fourteen of those players posted top-20 stats the year before the rookie showed up, and all but three again posted top-20 numbers with the rookie starting most of the season. (These 14 quarterbacks are tagged with black dots).

Fine-tuning it further, there were eight tight ends who posted top-12 numbers the year before the rookie showed up. All but two of those again posted top-12 numbers (using PPR scoring). Marcedes Lewis and Kyle Brady fell apart statistically, but the others were all just fine.

If Bryce Young is the quick-thinking deliverer of the ball that he’s supposed to be, then I guess maybe a credible season for Hurst? And maybe Schultz can be a security-blanket type guy, hanging with the Tyler Higbees of the position. I don’t think I’ll be selecting either Schultz or Hurst, but it seems reasonable for them to be picked in the last couple rounds of a draft as second tight ends.

LEADING TIGHT ENDS WITH ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS
YearPlayerRecYdsTDPPRRkQuarterbackPrev Yr
2002Mikhael Ricks, Det.27339378.922Joey Harrington18-252-1
2002Billy Miller, Hou.516133130.36David Carrcollege
2003• Todd Heap, Balt.576933154.43Kyle Boller68-836-6
2003• Kyle Brady, Jac.29281163.129Byron Leftwich43-461-4
2004Jerame Tuman, Pitt.989335.945Ben Roethlisberger12-113-0
2006Bo Scaife, Ten.29370285.318Vince Young37-273-2
2006Leonard Pope, Ariz.16161032.149Matt Leinartcollege
2008Justin Peelle, Atl.15159242.940Matt Ryan29-228-2
2008Todd Heap, Balt.35403393.324Joe Flacco23-239-1
2009• Dustin Keller, NYJ455222111.919Mark Sanchez48-535-3
2009• Kellen Winslow, T.B.778845196.17Josh Freeman43-428-3
2009Brandon Pettigrew, Det.30346276.627Matthew Staffordcollege
2010Daniel Fells, St.L.41391292.128Sam Bradford21-273-3
2011• Marcedes Lewis, Jac.39460085.030Blaine Gabbert58-700-10
2011Visanthe Shiancoe, Min.36409394.927Christian Ponder47-530-2
2011Greg Olsen, Car.455405131.018Cam Newton41-404-5
2012Anthony Fasano, Mia.413325106.228Ryan Tannehill32-451-5
2012Benjamin Watson, Cle.495013117.124Brandon Weeden37-410-2
2012Logan Paulsen, Was.25308161.840Robert Griffin11-138-0
2012Dwayne Allen, Ind.455213115.625Andrew Luckcollege
2013• Scott Chandler, Buff.536552130.516EJ Manuel43-571-6
2014Kyle Rudolph, Min.24231259.138Teddy Bridgewater30-313-3
2014Clay Harbor, Jac.26289160.937Blake Bortles24-292-2
2015• Delanie Walker, Ten.9410886244.43Marcus Mariota63-890-4
2015Austin Seferian-Jenkins, T.B.21338478.832Jameis Winston21-221-2
2016• Zach Ertz, Phil.788164183.66Carson Wentz75-853-2
2017• Zach Miller, Chi.20236255.640Mitchell Trubisky47-486-4
2018David Njoku, Cle.566394143.99Baker Mayfield32-386-4
2018Ricky Seals-Jones, Ariz.34343174.329Josh Rosen12-201-3
2018Chris Herndon, NYJ395024113.216Sam Darnoldcollege
2018Jason Croom, Buff.22259159.937Josh Allencollege
2019• Evan Engram, NYG444673109.418Daniel Jones45-577-3
2019Charles Clay, Ariz.18237147.745Kyler Murray21-184-0
2020• Hunter Henry, LAC606134145.312Justin Herbert55-652-5
2020• Mike Gesicki, Mia.537036159.37Tua Tagovailoa51-570-5
2020Drew Sample, Cin.40349180.930Joe Burrow5-30-0
2021• Hunter Henry, N.E.506039164.310Mac Jones60-613-4
2021Cole Kmet, Chi.606120121.221Justin Fields28-243-2
2021Ryan Griffin, NYJ27261265.138Zach Wilson9-86-0
2021James O'Shaughnessy, Jac.24244050.450Trevor Lawrence28-262-0
2022• Pat Freiermuth, Pitt.637322148.28Kenny Pickett60-497-7
2022Hayden Hurst, Car.?????Bryce Young52-414-2
2023Dalton Schultz, Hou.?????C.J. Stroud57-577-5
2023Jelani Woods, Ind.?????Anthony Richardson25-312-3

—Ian Allan