Four running backs were selected in the third round, and that’s a tricky area of the draft. Players selected in that area aren’t guaranteed to do much of anything. Trey Sermon and Tyrion Davis-Price, as recent examples, were picked in that round. But on the other hand, Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt were third-round picks.
To get a general lay of the land, consult the chart below. It shows the 30 running backs selected with third-round picks in the last 10 years. Of the group, 10 percent were league-winner type picks, posting top-10 stats – Kamara, Hunt and David Johnson. Three others finished with top-25 stats (using PPR scoring) at the position: Antonio Gibson, Duke Johnson and David Montgomery. And three others were at least the most productive back on their own NFL team.
Of the 30, on the other hand, 21 – 70 percent – didn’t do much at all, ranking outside the top 40 in season-long production.
Not all third-round picks, of course, are created equal. Looking back at the past guys, we had some sense of some of the rookies that were going to be good. With Kareem Hunt, for example, Spencer Ware tore his ACL in a preseason game at Seattle. At that point, it became very clear Hunt was going to be a starting running back for a good team.
With David Montgomery, the Bears had traded away Jordan Howard. It was clear Montgomery was going to be big part of their backfield, in some time-share situation with Tarik Cohen.
And with Kamara, things were jumbled (with the Saints also having Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram) but Kamara ripped off a 50-yard touchdown run in a preseason game at San Diego and had a cool 22-yard run in another. It was apparent he was a player.
With David Johnson, I don’t remember exactly how it went down. He carried 13 times for 66 yards in a preseason game, but the Cardinals had Andre Ellington coming back. Ellington was a smaller third-down type back but had put up 1,055 combined yards and 5 TDs in 12 games the previous season. Johnson began the 2015 season as a backup and then played his way into a larger role.
With Antonio Gibson, he was an odd draft pick, having great measurables but not having played much running back at Memphis. Washington didn’t have much else at the position – Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissic.
| RUNNING BACKS SELECTED IN THIRD ROUND (last 10 yrs) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2013 | Knile Davis, K.C. | 70 | 242 | 11 | 75 | 5 | 72.7 | 56 |
| 2014 | • Tre Mason, St.L. | 179 | 765 | 16 | 148 | 5 | 137.3 | 30 |
| 2014 | Terrance West, Cle. | 171 | 673 | 11 | 64 | 5 | 114.7 | 41 |
| 2014 | Jerick McKinnon, Min. | 113 | 538 | 27 | 135 | 0 | 94.3 | 48 |
| 2014 | Charles Sims, T.B. | 66 | 185 | 19 | 190 | 1 | 62.5 | 73 |
| 2014 | Dri Archer, Pitt. | 10 | 40 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 13.3 | 124 |
| 2015 | • David Johnson, Ariz. | 125 | 581 | 36 | 457 | 13 | 217.8 | 7 |
| 2015 | • Duke Johnson, Cle. | 104 | 379 | 61 | 534 | 2 | 164.3 | 24 |
| 2015 | • Matt Jones, Was. | 144 | 490 | 19 | 304 | 4 | 122.4 | 41 |
| 2015 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 87 | 392 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 48.6 | 79 |
| 2016 | C.J. Prosise, Sea. | 30 | 172 | 17 | 208 | 1 | 61.0 | 67 |
| 2016 | Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 33 | 179 | 9 | 46 | 3 | 49.5 | 73 |
| 2017 | • Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 120 | 728 | 81 | 826 | 14 | 322.4 | 3 |
| 2017 | • Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 272 | 1327 | 53 | 455 | 11 | 297.2 | 4 |
| 2017 | D'Onta Foreman, Hou. | 78 | 327 | 6 | 83 | 2 | 59.0 | 74 |
| 2017 | James Conner, Pitt. | 32 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.4 | 113 |
| 2018 | Royce Freeman, Den. | 130 | 521 | 14 | 72 | 5 | 103.3 | 46 |
| 2019 | • David Montgomery, Chi. | 242 | 889 | 25 | 185 | 7 | 174.4 | 24 |
| 2019 | • Devin Singletary, Buff. | 151 | 775 | 29 | 194 | 4 | 149.9 | 33 |
| 2019 | Alexander Mattison, Min. | 100 | 462 | 10 | 82 | 1 | 70.4 | 61 |
| 2019 | Darrell Henderson, LAR | 39 | 147 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 22.4 | 98 |
| 2019 | Damien Harris, N.E. | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 142 |
| 2020 | • Antonio Gibson, Was. | 170 | 795 | 36 | 247 | 11 | 206.2 | 14 |
| 2020 | Zack Moss, Buff. | 112 | 481 | 14 | 95 | 5 | 101.6 | 49 |
| 2020 | KeShawn Vaughn, T.B. | 26 | 109 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 25.3 | 98 |
| 2020 | Darrynton Evans, Ten. | 14 | 54 | 2 | 27 | 1 | 16.1 | 119 |
| 2021 | Trey Sermon, S.F. | 41 | 167 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 28.3 | 99 |
| 2022 | Rachaad White, T.B. | 129 | 481 | 50 | 290 | 3 | 145.1 | 35 |
| 2022 | Brian Robinson, Was. | 205 | 797 | 9 | 60 | 3 | 112.7 | 43 |
| 2022 | Tyrion Davis-Price, S.F. | 34 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.9 | 123 |
| 2023 | Kendre Miller, N.O. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2023 | Tyjae Spears, Ten. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2023 | Devon Achane, Mia. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2023 | Tank Bigsby, Jac. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
For the 2023 guy, I’m not super excited about any of them yet. I don’t see a Hunt-Kamara 10-percenter. But if form holds, one of these third-round rookies will finish with top-25 numbers. (In my gut, I don’t think that will happen, but it’s what the past numbers suggest.)
Tank Bigsby, to me, looks like a true backup. Assuming he shows up camp and plays the way they think he can, he’ll be the backup behind Travis Etienne. That one’s clearcut.
With Tyjae Spears, he’s probably also an AFC South backup. There’s been some chatter about Derrick Henry and his contract, but I don’t think Henry is going anywhere. If I’m drafting today, I’m operating under the assumption that Spears will be the No. 2 back there.
With Kendre Miller, there’s the added dimension of Alvin Kamara probably headed for a six-game suspension. But the Saints also signed Jamaal Williams in the offseason. I would think they’ll be using a one-two punch if Kamara misses some games. If Miller busts loose for a 50-yard touchdown in the preseason, that will change my thinking. For now, I see him as a modest prospect.
Devon Achane, I guess, I would consider the best of the third-round backs for now. He’s going to play. He’s small (5-8, 188) but with the speed to bust loose for big plays. And the Dolphins have a coaching staff that’s demonstrated some ability to scheme up plays. I would think they’ll be going with a committee approach at running back. They’ve got Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert and Achane, and I think they’ll all be playing a bunch.
—Ian Allan