Draft experts and dynasty enthusiasts alike were stunned in April when Detroit selected Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall. The Alabama running back was expected by most to go early in the second round or maybe sneak into the back end of the first.
Even more surprising was a few days later when it was reported by Tom Pelissero that the Lions (had they not traded back) would have taken Gibbs with the No. 6 pick – even before Bijan Robinson.
But I don’t think this should be so surprising. Gibbs should have been jumping off the screen at dynasty players for months. Last season he performed very well, rushing for 926 yards with 7 TDs and catching 44 passes for 444 yards and 3 TDs – leading his team in receptions. Let that sink in: he led the team in receptions as a running back.
The natural comparison for Gibbs is Alvin Kamara; both electric pass-catching backs who played at SEC schools. But Gibbs is the clear-cut better prospect coming out of college, hitting all the metrics indicative of success in the NFL, while Kamara missed quite a few.
| SCOUTING GIBBS-KAMARA-BIJAN | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Category | JG | AK | BR |
| BMI | 29.4 | 30.7 | 30.0 |
| 40 time | 4.36 | 4.56 | 4.46 |
| SpeedScore | 110.1 | 101.6 | 108.7 |
| Drafted | 12th | 67th | 8th |
| Early entry | yes | yes | yes |
| Dominator | 25.0 | 34.7 | 36.8 |
| Yards/Carry | 5.7 | 4.6 | 6.1 |
| Tgt share | 14.7% | 12.2% | 9.8% |
• BMI – Body Mass Index; measure of weight relative to height
• SpeedScore – player’s speed in relation to their size
• Early Declare – did they declare for the draft as a true junior?
• Dominator – total percentage of team’s offensive production
• Yds/carry – yards per carry
Where Gibbs rises above Kamara as a prospect is his SpeedScore and target share. In this category, 100 is the league average SpeedScore; Kamara came in at about average, but Gibbs’ is in elite territory at 110. You can compare this to Bijan with a 108; nearing that elite fringe at 110 but falling just short.
Gibbs also beats out Kamara in target share with a very high 14.7 percent – the 8th-highest target share for a running since 2015 (he handily beats Robinson, at 9.8 percent). For PPR players, a running back with a target share this high at a premier school should be catching your attention.
If you live by the metrics, Gibbs is the perfect running back prospect. Only three running backs have been drafted since 2015 that hit every metric like Gibbs: Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette and Jonathan Taylor. That’s very good company. Robinson’s numbers are just slightly lower but include seven more running backs – David Johnson, Cam Akers, Travis Etienne, C.J. Prosise, Tevin Coleman, Rashaad Penny, Kalen Ballage. Still pretty good odds for success, but I’ll take the 100 percent hit rate on Gibbs’ metrics any day.
The main concern for Gibbs has been his size – measuring in at 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds. Some argue that Gibbs is too small to be a workhorse back, but a 29.4 BMI really doesn’t exclude that at all. Other notable running backs with a BMI less than 29.4 include Christian McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley – three of the highest-volume backs in recent memory. Gibbs’ size might cause him to see less short-yardage work, but that should be a positive for dynasty players with the added longevity and decreased risk of injury that comes with avoiding 350-pound men trying to murder you every Sunday. And Gibbs will come into a situation where he doesn’t have to take all those short-yardage spots with David Montgomery on the roster.
In PPR dynasty leagues I think Gibbs has more potential. Robinson is a better rusher than Gibbs, and it’s not particularly close. That’s why the ground-and-pound Falcons selected him. But in PPR leagues, the best rushers don’t tend to perform nearly as well as the best pass-catching backs.
Alvin Kamara has not rushed for 1,000 yards once in his career, yet he finished as the RB 3, 4, 9, 1, and 9 in his first five seasons. Nick Chubb is considered the best rusher in the NFL; he has rushed for 1,500 yards twice but has only finished as the RB 17, 8, 11, 13, and 6 in PPR in his five seasons. Pass-catching backs dominate in PPR formats and Gibbs has an elite pass-catching profile.
It’s no stroke of genius to say that Gibbs will perform well in the NFL. Running backs taken in the top 15 selections of the draft since 2015 have all hit. But I’m all in on Gibbs being the RB1 overall of this class long-term. He has the pass-catching potential to be a league-winner immediately and greater potential for longevity than Robinson.
—Billy Olsson