Jerry Jeudy is being drafted as the 68th player overall, and the 27th wide receiver, according to ESPN’s current PPR ADP. This is simply too low.
Hindered by a poor offense which dealt with many injuries on the offensive line, a horrible head coach and an outlier season for Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy was still the PPR WR22. When looking at fantasy points per game, Jerry Jeudy was the WR18. But in Jeudy’s last seven full games, he averaged 19.4 points, which would rank 7th among receivers.
Jeudy got off to a slow start last year, averaging 2.8 catches for 48.3 yards in the first six weeks of the season. He averaged 8.7 points in those games. In Week 7, Jeudy caught 7 passes for 96 yards on a season-high 11 targets. That’s when things flipped for him. From that point on, he averaged 8.4 targets, 6.6 catches and 88 yards in his final seven full games, with 4 TDs. (In those final 12 weeks, Jeudy had an ankle injury that kept him out of two games and caused him to miss most of two others.)
Once Jeudy got things going, he averaged 19.4 points. His target share also increased, from 18 percent in Weeks 1-6 to 28 percent in his last seven full games. The chart below shows the most productive receivers from the 2022 season. For each, you’re seeing his average fantasy points per game (in games where he was on the field for at least half of his team’s plays), and also his target share in those games. For Jeudy, I’m listing not his full numbers but instead how he performed from Week 7 on.
| LEADING RECEIVERS FROM 2022 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | PPR/G | Tgt share |
| Cooper Kupp | 22.4 | 26.2% |
| Justin Jefferson | 21.7 | 28.7% |
| JaMarr Chase | 20.2 | 28.5% |
| Tyreek Hill | 20.1 | 30.2% |
| Stefon Diggs | 19.8 | 29.7% |
| Davante Adams | 19.7 | 32.2% |
| Jeudy (last 7 G) | 19.4 | 27.8% |
| Keenan Allen | 18.7 | 26.7% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 18.6 | 30.1% |
| A.J. Brown | 17.6 | 28.7% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 17.4 | 28.6% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 16.9 | 29.4% |
Granted, the sample size isn’t huge. But if Jeudy can play at anything close that level, he’ll be paying off relative to where he was chosen. If we extrapolate his last eight games over a full season, we’d be looking at 143 targets, 112 catches, 1,656 yards and 8.5 touchdowns. Using 2022 statistics, Jeudy would rank 6th in catches among receivers and 3rd in yards.
For Jeudy to really blossom, the offense around him needs to improve, and there’s some hope that happens. Certainly the offensive line will be substantially better. (Of course, it could hardly be worse after allowing a league-worst 63 sacks last year.) Tackle Garett Bolles and center Lloyd Cushenberry are back after missing most of last year with injuries; that will help. And the Broncos spent big early in free agency on a pair of blockers (Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers). A better line will help Russell Wilson and in turn lead to a more productive season for Jeudy.
Perhaps the largest offseason acquisition that the Broncos made was trading for Sean Payton. In his 15 years as the coach in New Orleans, nine of his teams ranked in the top 5 in scoring (only one of his teams didn’t rank in the top 12). The Broncos, in contrast, ranked last in scoring last year. Reasonable, therefore, to expect a substantial increase in scoring this year.
Jeudy looks certain to be this team’s No. 1 receiver. The Broncos don’t have much else -- Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Marvin Mims, KJ Hamler and Marquez Callaway. Sutton was the PPR WR43 last season, averaging 2 fewer yards per target than Jeudy. Patrick is coming off a torn ACL and should not play a large role. Mims is a rookie who might start by the end of the season but does not figure to draw a larger target share.
Revisiting Jeudy’s ADP, he is being drafted behind guys like Mike Evans, Christian Watson, D'Andre Swift and Rachaad White, and in the same range as Mike Williams, Tyler Lockett and Cam Akers. Jeudy is being drafted at his floor, and has a foreseeable path to being a top-8 WR in 2023. This is why I am all in on Jeudy in 2023.
—Michael Spoto
Spoto is a finance professional, fantasy football analyst and professional esports player based in Staten Island. He graduated with a degree in business administration from the University of Albany, SUNY. He competes in redraft fantasy leagues.