With the departure of Leonard Fournette, Rachaad White is positioned to step into a three-down role. That makes him a candidate to put up top-20 numbers.
He’ll play for an offense that will be significantly different. The Bucs last year ranked No. 1 in plays and pass attempts and 2nd in targets to running backs. They were the only team that passed the ball twice as often as they ran it. With Tampa Bay having a new coordinator (Dave Canales) and a new quarterback (probably Baker Mayfield), those kind of numbers won’t be repeated.
But using league averages (with an emphasis on the offenses Canales and Mayfield have been associated with), it’s realistic to expect the Bucs to average about 60 snaps per game. That should put them in the bottom 10. And with a more balanced run-pass mix, about 26 runs per game seems fair, along with 6 running back targets.
With the Bucs not having much else at running back, White has a good chance of accounting for the vast majority of those 32 running back plays.
Barring a free agent signing, Tampa Bay will have one of the leanest running back rooms in the league. Chase Edmonds has played for three other teams in the last two years; he’s signed at close to the minimum. KeShawn Vaughn carried the ball only 17 times last year. And Sean Tucker has some talent but is currently not practicing due to a heart condition that caused him to go undrafted. The door is open, it seems, for White to be heavily used.
He's got to be able to do it, of course. He wasn’t very effective last year, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and 1.3 yards after contact (about the same as Fournette). But with a different offensive system and an improved line, those numbers should improve.
The interior run blocking will be better. The Bucs played all of last year without their Pro Bowl center, Ryan Jensen; he’s back. And they used their second-round pick on Cody Mauch, who was a mauling run blocker at North Dakota State. The Bucs released Donovan Smith in a cap move, but they’ll be stronger at left tackle with Tristan Wirfs (sliding over from the right side). They won’t be as good on the right, of course, but the injuries last year at least allowed Luke Goedeke to get some invaluable snaps as a rookie.
In fantasy, volume is key and can mask inefficiency. White checks that box, given his receiving ability and the likelihood he gets most of the team’s rushing attempts. He could be a decent second back even without improving his yards-per-carry average. If he can start popping more runs, he might wind up being a top-10 player at his position.
White is currently being drafted 63rd overall, as the 24th running back in PPR drafts. He’s got a lot more receiving upside than Dameon Pierce and Isiah Pacheco (who are both being picked slightly earlier). He’s got a better offensive line than James Conner (who’s also going earlier). I am committing to the high floor that White provides, and will be taking a swing on the potential that he turns into a running back who helps win leagues.
—Michael Spoto
Spoto is a finance professional, fantasy football analyst and professional esports player based in Staten Island. He graduated with a degree in business administration from the University of Albany, SUNY. He competes in redraft fantasy leagues.