A comment on the Kenneth Walker article asked about past success rates of No. 2 running backs. It's something we look at regularly but there's not really a one-size-fits-all answer. Situations vary from year to year, team to team, and from different stages of the offseason to the next.
For example, some No. 2s, everyone knew last preseason might be very good -- guys like Tony Pollard (pictured), Rhamondre Stevenson and Walker. Walker was actually drafted earlier than anticipated starter Rashaad Penny in many (most?) leagues. And there's a huge difference between drafting a backup in a middle round (as you'd have to do with guys like AJ Dillon or Kareem Hunt) or in the last few rounds, a little risk (ala Jaylen Warren or Samaje Perine).
In any case, I decided to take a look at the 32 projected No. 2 running backs from last August, and how those players wound up faring. In the table, sorted by their final fantasy ranking (PPR) after last season, I also offer my own take on how things played out.
| NO. 2 RUNNING BACKS LAST SEASON | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | GS | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk | Note |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 17 | 7 | 1040 | 69 | 421 | 6 | 251.1 | 8 | Emerged as best running back |
| Tony Pollard, Dall. | 16 | 4 | 1007 | 39 | 371 | 12 | 248.8 | 9 | Emerged as best running back |
| Jamaal Williams, Det. | 17 | 9 | 1066 | 12 | 73 | 17 | 229.9 | 12 | Emerged as best running back |
| Raheem Mostert, Mia. | 16 | 14 | 891 | 31 | 202 | 5 | 170.3 | 26 | Emerged as best running back |
| AJ Dillon, G.B. | 17 | 3 | 770 | 28 | 206 | 7 | 167.6 | 27 | Solid but blocked by Aaron Jones |
| Jeff Wilson, S.F. | 16 | 7 | 860 | 22 | 185 | 6 | 162.5 | 29 | Split time in San Francisco and Miami |
| Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 16 | 7 | 1035 | 16 | 139 | 4 | 159.4 | 30 | Very good season for those who gambled |
| Rachaad White, T.B. | 17 | 8 | 481 | 50 | 290 | 3 | 145.1 | 35 | Leonard Fournette stayed healthy |
| Samaje Perine, Cin. | 16 | 2 | 394 | 38 | 287 | 6 | 142.1 | 36 | Had some good games along the way |
| Isiah Pacheco, K.C. | 17 | 11 | 830 | 13 | 130 | 5 | 139.0 | 37 | Rookie star in second half |
| Michael Carter, NYJ | 16 | 10 | 402 | 41 | 288 | 3 | 128.0 | 39 | Committee back all year |
| Kareem Hunt, Cle. | 17 | 0 | 468 | 35 | 210 | 4 | 126.8 | 40 | Fell out of favor |
| Khalil Herbert, Chi. | 13 | 1 | 731 | 9 | 57 | 5 | 117.8 | 41 | Quality No. 2, may start in 2023 |
| Brian Robinson, Was. | 12 | 9 | 797 | 9 | 60 | 3 | 112.7 | 43 | Emerged as main runner |
| Jaylen Warren, Pitt. | 16 | 0 | 379 | 28 | 214 | 1 | 93.3 | 47 | Najee Harris stayed healthy |
| Melvin Gordon, Den. | 10 | 6 | 318 | 25 | 223 | 2 | 91.1 | 48 | Phased out due to miscues |
| Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 15 | 2 | 466 | 14 | 171 | 2 | 89.7 | 50 | Surpassed by D'Onta Foreman |
| Eno Benjamin, Ari. | 15 | 3 | 313 | 25 | 193 | 2 | 89.6 | 51 | No clear No. 2 behind workhorse James Conner |
| James Robinson, Jac. | 11 | 5 | 425 | 11 | 51 | 5 | 88.6 | 52 | Started strong, but wound up inactive, traded |
| Alexander Mattison, Min. | 17 | 0 | 283 | 15 | 91 | 6 | 88.4 | 53 | Dalvin Cook stayed healthy |
| Kenneth Gainwell, Phil. | 17 | 0 | 240 | 23 | 169 | 4 | 87.9 | 54 | Miles Sanders stayed healthy |
| Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 16 | 5 | 33 | 30 | 241 | 4 | 81.4 | 56 | Modest production, traded to Buffalo |
| Rex Burkhead, Hou. | 16 | 0 | 80 | 37 | 204 | 2 | 77.4 | 58 | Non-factor |
| Darrell Henderson, LAR | 10 | 7 | 283 | 17 | 102 | 3 | 73.5 | 61 | Non-factor, released |
| Zack Moss, Buff. | 13 | 3 | 456 | 11 | 39 | 1 | 66.5 | 63 | Non-factor, traded to Indianapolis |
| Joshua Kelley, LAC | 13 | 1 | 287 | 14 | 101 | 2 | 64.8 | 64 | Non-factor |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 9 | 4 | 433 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 61.3 | 65 | Slow to return from injury |
| Matt Breida, NYG | 17 | 1 | 220 | 20 | 118 | 1 | 59.8 | 66 | Saquon Barkley stayed healthy |
| Mark Ingram, N.O. | 10 | 3 | 233 | 16 | 68 | 1 | 54.1 | 69 | Modest production |
| Rashaad Penny, Sea. | 5 | 5 | 346 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 52.2 | 72 | Injured early on |
| Hassan Haskins, Ten. | 15 | 1 | 93 | 11 | 57 | 0 | 26.0 | 96 | Derrick Henry stayed healthy |
| Zamir White, L.V. | 14 | 0 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 132 | Barely got on field |
In a rough sense, I think about a quarter of those projected No. 2 running backs wound up having very good seasons. Nobody who drafted Stevenson or Pollard early was disappointed. Those who used later picks on Tyler Allgeier, Rachaad White or Isiah Pacheco got some good or great production. Jamaal Williams had a great year, certainly above where he was drafted in most leagues (although that backfield was always viewed as a likely committee). AJ Dillon, Jeff Wilson (albeit for a different team) and Brian Robinson all provided usable stats, with Robinson kind of a complex case.
In general what we say with No. 2 running backs is that they're lottery tickets. Can be very rewarding if they pay off, but more often than not -- Zamir White leaps to mind -- they don't.
--Andy Richardson