We had our annual Experts Draft last night. You're gonna have to wait for the magazine to see how it turned out, but I'll talk about some elements every so often until then. One that prompted some discussion during the draft was when to take a quarterback.

Usually in experts drafts, quarterbacks go later than they do in home leagues or I'd say basically any league. It almost, I think, becomes a point of pride not to select a quarterback. But Josh Allen went in the second round, and people debated in the chat room whether it was too early or not.

I'm not sure what the ideal way is to answer the question, but I thought I'd take a look at just how much of an edge the top quarterbacks gave you over the 12th-best quarterbacks in recent years. If they're close, you're probably better off waiting to be one of the last participants to select a quarterback. If the top ones are routinely lapping the field, giving a significant edge week after week, you probably did the right thing selecting one.

Table shows the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks (1 point for 20 passing and 10 rushing yards, 4 point TD passes, 6 point TD runs, no negative points for interceptions) in each of the last five years, sorted by fantasy points per game. The No. 1 QB (for the season) in each year is in bold, the No. 12 is in italics, so the disparity can easily be spotted.

2022Patrick Mahomes, K.C.5250413584493.9129.1
2022Josh Allen, Buff.4283357627476.4229.8
2022Jalen Hurts, Phil.37012276013431.1328.7
2022Joe Burrow, Cin.4475352575425.5426.6
2022Geno Smith, Sea.4282303661376.7522.2
2022Kirk Cousins, Min.454729972371.1621.8
2022Trevor Lawrence, Jac.4113252915370.8721.8
2022Justin Herbert, LAC4739251470354.7820.9
2022Jared Goff, Det.443829730350.7920.6
2022Tom Brady, T.B.469425-11344.61020.3
2022Justin Fields, Chi.22421711438344.41123.0
2022Daniel Jones, NYG3205157087337.11221.1
2021Josh Allen, Buff.4407367636482.7128.4
2021Justin Herbert, LAC5014383023462.9227.2
2021Tom Brady, T.B.531643812457.9326.9
2021Patrick Mahomes, K.C.4839373812444.1426.1
2021Matthew Stafford, LAR488641430416.6524.5
2021Dak Prescott, Dall.4449371461397.1624.8
2021Joe Burrow, Cin.4611341182392.4724.5
2021Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4115371013382.5823.9
2021Jalen Hurts, Phil.31441678410365.6924.4
2021Kirk Cousins, Min.4221331151360.61022.5
2021Kyler Murray, Ariz.3787244235358.41125.6
2021Derek Carr, L.V.4804231080343.01220.2
2020Josh Allen, Buff.4544374218473.5129.6
2020Kyler Murray, Ariz.39712681911450.5228.2
2020Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4299481493440.3327.5
2020Patrick Mahomes, K.C.4740383082437.8429.2
2020Deshaun Watson, Hou.4823334443437.6527.3
2020Russell Wilson, Sea.4212405132435.9627.2
2020Tom Brady, T.B.46334063410.3725.6
2020Ryan Tannehill, Ten.3819332667398.6824.9
2020Justin Herbert, LAC4336312345398.2926.5
2020Lamar Jackson, Balt.27572610057386.41025.8
2020Kirk Cousins, Min.4265351561384.91124.1
2020Matt Ryan, Atl.458126922356.31222.3
2019Lamar Jackson, Balt.31273612067463.0130.9
2019Jameis Winston, T.B.5109332501426.5226.7
2019Dak Prescott, Dall.4902302773412.8325.8
2019Deshaun Watson, Hou.3852264137389.5426.0
2019Russell Wilson, Sea.4110313423383.7524.0
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.3722205444350.5621.9
2019Matt Ryan, Atl.4466261471350.0723.3
2019Josh Allen, Buff.3089205109345.5821.6
2019Carson Wentz, Phil.4039272431344.3921.5
2019Patrick Mahomes, K.C.4031262182341.41024.4
2019Jared Goff, LAR463822402335.91121.0
2019Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4002261831334.41220.9
2018Patrick Mahomes, K.C.5097502722496.1131.0
2018Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.512934983429.2226.8
2018Matt Ryan, Atl.4924351253428.2326.8
2018Andrew Luck, Ind.4593391480405.9425.4
2018Deshaun Watson, Hou.4165265515397.4524.8
2018Jared Goff, LAR4688321082397.2624.8
2018Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4442252692367.0722.9
2018Kirk Cousins, Min.4298301231360.1822.5
2018Drew Brees, N.O.399232224356.9923.8
2018Philip Rivers, LAC43083270354.11022.1
2018Dak Prescott, Dall.3885223056352.81122.0
2018Russell Wilson, Sea.3448353760351.91222.0

Granted, we don't know going into each season who the No. 1 quarterback will be. But it's not surprising to see it was Allen twice and Patrick Mahomes twice, with Lamar Jackson also sneaking in one year. Nor do we know who the No. 12 quarterback will be (few ranked Daniel Jones there last year). But this is the gap in each of the last five years between the 1st-best and 12th-best quarterbacks for the full season.

Three times it was 8 points per week, once it was 9 points per week, and once it was 10 points per week. So you can look at that and at least say, landing the 12th-best quarterback in a fantasy league is a pretty significant weekly disadvantage compared to the guys who have the top ones.

As far as getting the No. 1 overall quarterback (versus getting the No. 4 or 5), that seems to be a year-by-year proposition. The Lamar Jackson year (2019), and the Patrick Mahomes 50-TD year (2018), those guys averaged 4-4.5 points per game more than the 2nd guy. But in the other three years, the 2-4 quarterbacks were within a couple of points of the No. 1, and in one of those (2020) even the No. 6 guy was within 2 points of the best of the quarterbacks.

In any case, I think you can argue for both sides. It's an edge to select the top 1 or 2 quarterbacks, especially when we have a pretty good idea who those players will probably be (I don't think many drafted Hurts as that player last year, but they certainly drafted Allen and Mahomes up there). And if you wait to be one of the last teams to select a quarterback, maybe you'll hit on the breakout star; the Hurts or perhaps Lamar back in 2019. But if you actually wind up with the 10th-12th best quarterback, you'll be facing a significant weekly disadvantage.