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Factoid

Slower running backs

Speed isn't everything

A couple of the running backs drafted in the first three rounds this year turned in less than ideal 40 times at the NFL combine. Zach Charbonnet (4.53) and Tank Bigsby (pictured; 4.56) are on the slow side, certainly compared to first-rounders Jahmyr Gibbs (4.36) and Bijan Robinson (4.46). Does it matter?

It might not. For this table, I took a look at all the running backs drafted in the first three rounds the last 10 years. In that 10-year period, there were 32 running backs selected that early who ran a 4.51 or slower. More than half of them were clocked at 4.6 or worse. Here's how those backs have turned out.

Running backs drafted in the first three rounds are organized by 40 times at the combine. The final column shows their best fantasy performance (PPR) in those seasons. Players who didn't run at the combine (including some big names like Todd Gurley and Josh Jacobs) are excluded.

What was surprising to me was that just slightly under half of them (13) have had at least 1 top-12 fantasy season. Two others made it into the top 15, and several of the more recent picks (AJ Dillon, Brian Robinson) still might. Some of the top performers aren't 4.5 guys like Nick Chubb, but ran 4.6 or worse -- Bell, Hunt, Montgomery, Conner, Hill. Keep that in mind before underestimating either Charbonnet or Bigsby.

RUNNING BACKS RUNNING 4.51 OR SLOWER AT COMBINE, 2013-PRESENT
YearRdPkPlayerSchoolHtWt40Best
2020376KeShawn VaughnIllinois5.102144.5190th
201714Leonard FournetteLouisiana State6.012304.516th
2018235Nick ChubbGeorgia5.102254.526th
2015115Melvin GordonWisconsin6.012154.525th
2022398Brian RobinsonAlabama6.022254.5343rd
2020262AJ DillonBoston College6.002474.5323rd
2013237Giovani BernardNorth Carolina5.092084.5313th
2018131Sony MichelGeorgia5.112144.5431st
2018371Royce FreemanOregon6.002294.5438th
2016245Derrick HenryAlabama6.022474.543rd
2015377Duke JohnsonMiami5.092074.5411th
2013262Christine MichaelTexas A&M5.102214.5435th
2015394Ty MontgomeryStanford6.002214.5533rd
2013261Eddie LacyAlabama5.112304.556th
2017367Alvin KamaraTennessee5.102144.561st
2014394Terrance WestTowson5.092254.5623rd
2019387Damien HarrisAlabama 5.102164.5714th
2020132Clyde Edwards-HelaireLouisiana State5.072074.6022nd
2015254Ameer AbdullahNebraska5.092054.6040th
2013248LeVeon BellMichigan State6.012304.601st
2015236T.J. YeldonAlabama6.012264.6122nd
2015395Matt JonesFlorida6.022314.6141st
2017386Kareem HuntToledo5.102164.624th
2019373David MontgomeryIowa State5.102224.634th
2020386Zack MossUtah5.092234.6549th
20173105James ConnerPittsburgh6.012334.655th
2019374Devin SingletaryFlorida Atlantic 5.072034.6620th
2018238Ronald JonesSouthern California6.002004.6619th
2014255Jeremy HillLouisiana State6.012334.6610th
2014257Carlos HydeOhio State6.002304.668th
2013258Montee BallWisconsin5.102154.6643rd
20193102Alexander MattisonBoise State 5.112214.6737th

At the bottom of the table is a guy the Vikings are counting on as their starter this year: Alexander Mattison. Him we're kind of cool on, due to his modest production (aside from some big games against terrible defenses) as a pro. But as James Conner, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde, who turned in similarly slow 40s, indicate, he could still be a very good back.

--Andy Richardson

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