In our system of player evaluations, the teams and players are knotted together. (When a team is projected to average 260 passing yards, those yards are then allocated to the team’s pass catchers.) With that in mind, it makes sense to not only look at the player grades, but our expectations for offenses in general.
With the preseason in full about to kick off, it’s a good time to take a step back and consider the overall lay of the land – our projections for all 32 offenses in the key offensive categories.
For touchdowns in general, we’ve got Kansas City as the clear No. 1 – currently projected to score 5 more touchdowns than any other team. We’ve got three other offenses projected to average about 3 TDs per week: Eagles, Bills, Bengals. Granted, nothing original about these picks – all four of these offenses were good last year. But those are our top 4.
The most noteworthy selections in the top 10 are the Chargers and Jets. We’ve got the Bolts at 50 touchdowns – the No. 5 offense. So no surprise that we’re high on Justin Herbert. And we’ve got the Jets, despite a difficult schedule, riding an Aaron Rodgers bump into the bottom of the top 10.
| OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| Kansas City | 39.8 | 17.0 | 56.8 |
| Philadelphia | 27.1 | 24.4 | 51.5 |
| Buffalo | 34.0 | 17.0 | 51.0 |
| Cincinnati | 37.9 | 12.9 | 50.8 |
| LA Chargers | 35.9 | 14.1 | 50.0 |
| Dallas | 30.8 | 17.7 | 48.5 |
| Jacksonville | 32.8 | 14.5 | 47.3 |
| San Francisco | 26.5 | 20.4 | 46.9 |
| Detroit | 28.1 | 18.7 | 46.8 |
| NY Jets | 32.1 | 13.9 | 46.1 |
| Miami | 30.9 | 14.3 | 45.2 |
| Baltimore | 27.5 | 17.2 | 44.7 |
| Minnesota | 30.4 | 13.6 | 44.0 |
| Seattle | 28.2 | 15.0 | 43.2 |
| Cleveland | 23.3 | 19.4 | 42.7 |
| New Orleans | 26.4 | 15.1 | 41.5 |
| Denver | 25.3 | 15.1 | 40.5 |
| Green Bay | 24.3 | 15.4 | 39.7 |
| New England | 22.6 | 16.2 | 38.8 |
| Chicago | 20.9 | 17.7 | 38.6 |
| Atlanta | 19.6 | 18.9 | 38.4 |
| Pittsburgh | 22.1 | 16.2 | 38.3 |
| NY Giants | 20.2 | 17.3 | 37.6 |
| Las Vegas | 24.8 | 12.4 | 37.2 |
| Carolina | 22.8 | 14.0 | 36.8 |
| Washington | 21.8 | 13.8 | 35.6 |
| Tennessee | 20.7 | 14.3 | 35.0 |
| LA Rams | 19.9 | 13.9 | 33.8 |
| Indianapolis | 14.6 | 18.9 | 33.5 |
| Houston | 19.8 | 12.2 | 32.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 20.7 | 9.0 | 29.8 |
| Arizona | 17.0 | 11.1 | 28.1 |
For passing, we’ve got the same cast of characters at the top: KC, Bengals, Chargers, Bills. The Jaguars, with Trevor Lawrence continuing to emerge, fill the No. 5 spot.
Perhaps the biggest surprise on this list are the Ravens. They’ve run a wildly run-dominated system in recent years, but we’re expecting to see them open things up under Todd Monken (and with an improved receiving corps). We’ve got Baltimore above-average.
On this one, the teams are ordered using 1 point for every 10 passing yards and 6 for each TD pass. (If you were to order them using 1 for every 20 passing yards and 4 for TD passes, the ordering would be similar – here, we’re trying to paint the picture for both passing and receiving.)
Note that the Colts, with the combination of a raw rookie and a coach who put together a lot of run-heavy game plans in Philadelphia, are a distant last in this category. That’s a driving factor behind Michael Pittman ranking way lower on our board than where you’ll see him on ADP lists.
| TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TD | Points |
| Kansas City | 298 | 2.34 | 28.9 |
| Cincinnati | 284 | 2.23 | 27.6 |
| LA Chargers | 288 | 2.11 | 27.1 |
| Buffalo | 260 | 2.00 | 25.0 |
| Jacksonville | 258 | 1.93 | 24.5 |
| NY Jets | 258 | 1.89 | 24.2 |
| Minnesota | 266 | 1.79 | 24.0 |
| Miami | 262 | 1.82 | 24.0 |
| Dallas | 248 | 1.81 | 23.3 |
| Philadelphia | 262 | 1.59 | 22.7 |
| Seattle | 245 | 1.66 | 22.2 |
| Baltimore | 248 | 1.62 | 22.1 |
| Detroit | 243 | 1.65 | 22.1 |
| New Orleans | 243 | 1.55 | 21.5 |
| San Francisco | 232 | 1.56 | 21.0 |
| Denver | 238 | 1.49 | 20.8 |
| Las Vegas | 240 | 1.46 | 20.8 |
| Cleveland | 237 | 1.37 | 20.1 |
| New England | 240 | 1.33 | 20.0 |
| Green Bay | 225 | 1.43 | 19.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 235 | 1.30 | 19.6 |
| Carolina | 228 | 1.34 | 19.4 |
| NY Giants | 236 | 1.19 | 18.9 |
| LA Rams | 237 | 1.17 | 18.9 |
| Washington | 214 | 1.28 | 18.4 |
| Tennessee | 220 | 1.22 | 18.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 218 | 1.22 | 18.2 |
| Houston | 212 | 1.17 | 17.6 |
| Atlanta | 208 | 1.15 | 17.3 |
| Chicago | 195 | 1.23 | 17.1 |
| Arizona | 222 | 1.00 | 17.1 |
| Indianapolis | 185 | .86 | 14.4 |
Finally, for rushing production, the top teams look easy to spot. The half dozen that we’ve slotted the highest all have some combination of run-oriented schemes, mobile quarterbacks, talented tailbacks and conservative coaches.
Arguably the league’s seven most productive running quarterbacks are all on teams in the top 9 of our list: Hurts, Richardson, Fields, Watson, Jackson, Allen and Daniel Jones. The other two teams in the top 9 have coaches who’ve shown they can put together killer run games: Kyle Shanahan and Arthur Smith.
As with passing, ordering is based on 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.
| TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TD | Points |
| Philadelphia | 138 | 1.44 | 22.4 |
| Indianapolis | 148 | 1.11 | 21.5 |
| Chicago | 152 | 1.04 | 21.4 |
| San Francisco | 140 | 1.20 | 21.2 |
| Atlanta | 141 | 1.11 | 20.8 |
| Cleveland | 134 | 1.14 | 20.2 |
| Baltimore | 138 | 1.01 | 19.9 |
| Buffalo | 134 | 1.00 | 19.4 |
| NY Giants | 128 | 1.02 | 18.9 |
| Dallas | 124 | 1.04 | 18.6 |
| Detroit | 120 | 1.10 | 18.6 |
| Green Bay | 128 | .90 | 18.2 |
| Pittsburgh | 124 | .95 | 18.1 |
| Kansas City | 120 | 1.00 | 18.0 |
| Seattle | 121 | .88 | 17.4 |
| New England | 116 | .95 | 17.3 |
| Washington | 124 | .81 | 17.3 |
| Denver | 119 | .89 | 17.2 |
| Tennessee | 118 | .84 | 16.8 |
| New Orleans | 114 | .89 | 16.7 |
| Jacksonville | 114 | .85 | 16.5 |
| Carolina | 115 | .83 | 16.5 |
| Miami | 111 | .84 | 16.1 |
| LA Rams | 109 | .82 | 15.8 |
| Las Vegas | 111 | .73 | 15.5 |
| NY Jets | 104 | .82 | 15.3 |
| Cincinnati | 101 | .76 | 14.7 |
| Houston | 103 | .72 | 14.6 |
| LA Chargers | 95 | .83 | 14.5 |
| Minnesota | 92 | .80 | 14.0 |
| Arizona | 100 | .65 | 13.9 |
| Tampa Bay | 102 | .53 | 13.4 |
As usual with this kind of piece, if you see something that looks out of whack, mention it in the comments and we can hash it out.
—Ian Allan