DJ Moore has consistently been one of the most frustrating wide receivers. He’s got too much potential to trade away for peanuts, but he hasn’t performed well enough to be anything more than a flex starter. With the trade to Chicago, there’s hope that the change in scenery will finally unlock Moore’s full potential. Proponents of this argument point to how similar his situation is to both Stefon Diggs in 2020 and A.J. Brown last year. But how similar are they and is this something you should rely on when investing in Moore’s future?
Let’s take a look at those similarities, the first being the QBs at their new teams. Diggs and Brown both joined third-year quarterbacks mostly known as rushing threats (Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts). Both had struggled passing the ball in their first two seasons – sound familiar to someone in Chicago? Let’s see how each quarterback’s stats compare through their first two years:
| QUARTERBACKS: FIRST TWO SEASONS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Year | St | PassY | TDP | Int | RunY | TDR | Rate |
| Jalen Hurts | 2020 | 4 | 231 | 1.25 | .75 | 68 | .75 | 77.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2021 | 15 | 210 | 1.07 | .60 | 52 | .67 | 87.2 |
| Josh Allen | 2018 | 11 | 182 | .91 | 1.09 | 55 | .73 | 67.9 |
| Josh Allen | 2019 | 16 | 193 | 1.25 | .56 | 32 | .56 | 85.3 |
| Justin Fields | 2021 | 10 | 180 | .70 | .90 | 39 | .10 | 73.2 |
| Justin Fields | 2022 | 15 | 150 | 1.13 | .73 | 76 | .53 | 85.2 |
Moore’s success hinges on Justin Fields making the same kind of third-year jump. He’s been on a similar trajectory so far, but with one notable difference. All three saw their TD-interception ratios and passer ratings improve in their second seasons, but Fields is lacking in passing yards. Both Allen and Hurts averaged over 43 more passing yards per game in their second seasons. This is pretty concerning for Moore; receivers need volume to be elite. But how much of the lack of passing volume last year was really Fields’ fault and how much was the Bears’ roster?
The Bears last year averaged a league-low 153 passing yards. This has been repeated ad nauseam since the trade to argue that he won’t produce in Chicago. But let’s look at how the Bills and Eagles passing offenses evolved during Allen’s and Hurts’ first three seasons. Is it really so far-fetched to see the Bears do something similar?
| TEAM PASSING RANKS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Yards | TD | Rk | Best receiver (PPR) |
| 2020 | Eagles | 233 | 22 | 25th | Greg Ward (58th) |
| 2021 | Eagles | 211 | 20 | 28th | DeVonta Smith (30th) |
| 2022 | Eagles | 257 | 25 | 9th | A.J. Brown (6th) |
| 2018 | Bills | 193 | 13 | 31st | Zay Jones (35th) |
| 2019 | Bills | 217 | 21 | 27th | John Brown (20th) |
| 2020 | Bills | 299 | 40 | 4th | Stefon Diggs (3rd) |
| 2021 | Bears | 214 | 16 | 29th | Darnell Mooney (23rd) |
| 2022 | Bears | 153 | 19 | 32nd | Darnell Mooney (72nd) |
| 2023 | Bears | ? | ? | ? | ? |
The numbers suggest it’s possible Chicago’s passing offense improves massively with the addition of Moore. This chart clearly shows the impact an elite WR can have on an offense. Both the Eagles and Bills were at the very bottom of the league in passing until they got their alpha receivers propelling them up 20 spots in the rankings. I think this is a fantastic sign for Moore. The Bears improving significantly over last year is not as crazy as some are making it seem; especially considering the improvements at offensive line they made over the offseason drafting Darnell Wright with the 10th pick in the draft.
This forecast depends on Moore being an elite receiver. This is hard to judge, though, with Moore’s situation in Carolina being significantly worse than what Diggs or Brown had in Minnesota and Tennessee.
| RECEIVERS WITH ORIGINAL TEAMS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk | Tm | Tm pts |
| 2019 | Brown | 52 | 1,051 | 9 | 217.1 | 22 | Ten. | 10th |
| 2020 | Brown | 70 | 1,075 | 12 | 249.5 | 11 | Ten. | 4th |
| 2021 | Brown | 63 | 869 | 5 | 180.9 | 33 | Ten. | 15th |
| 2015 | Diggs | 52 | 720 | 4 | 149.3 | 47 | Min. | 16th |
| 2016 | Diggs | 84 | 903 | 3 | 193.3 | 31 | Min. | 23rd |
| 2017 | Diggs | 64 | 849 | 8 | 198.2 | 19 | Min. | 10th |
| 2018 | Diggs | 102 | 1,021 | 9 | 266.3 | 10 | Min. | 19th |
| 2019 | Diggs | 63 | 1,130 | 6 | 218.1 | 21 | Min. | 8th |
| 2018 | Moore | 55 | 788 | 2 | 163.0 | 36 | Car. | 14th |
| 2019 | Moore | 87 | 1,175 | 4 | 232.5 | 16 | Car. | 20th |
| 2020 | Moore | 66 | 1,193 | 4 | 211.5 | 25 | Car. | 24th |
| 2021 | Moore | 93 | 1,157 | 4 | 239.5 | 17 | Car. | 29th |
| 2022 | Moore | 63 | 888 | 7 | 199.1 | 25 | Car. | 20th |
In every measure, Carolina had the worst passing offense of the three. Moore’s quarterback play was terrible, particularly recently. His various quarterbacks over the years have lagged behind what Diggs and Browns had in Minnesota (Kirk Cousins) and Tennessee (Ryan Tannehill). But Moore still performed comparably in his pre-trade years, making it seem realistic to hope for him to be as good Diggs and Brown.
To me, the number suggest Moore is an elite receiver. He should have an immediate and profound impact on Chicago’s passing game. That was the general vibe at the team’s recently completed OTAs – he’ll be their top pass catcher. And Fields looks capable of taking a nice step forward, with Moore helping to unlock that potential. When that happens, Moore could be a perennial top-10 receiver like Diggs and Brown for years to come. Moore’s price is higher after the trade, but I still think he is undervalued.
—Billy Olsson Olsson currently plays in 20 money dynasty leagues, as well as drafting best-ball teams. As a proponent of the statistical aspect of fantasy football, he uses machine learning and AI techniques to build models that predict the performance of incoming rookies. A native of Dallas, he is a Cowboys fan.