Some resolution yesterday for Alvin Kamara, and potentially good news for those who drafted him already in best-ball leagues. He's reached a plea deal to a lesser charge in the battery case against him from a 2022 incident in Las Vegas.
Initially, there was a felony charge, but he's pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor charge of breach of peace. It's important to note that this does not mean he won't be suspended by the league, nor that it won't be the 6 games that has generally been anticipated. But it at least means that the suspension will probably be announced well before the start of the season, so we'll all know exactly how much time he'll miss before drafting him, and it makes it pretty likely it won't be more than 6 games (which was anticipated) and maybe it will even be less (say, 4 games).
The deal includes community service, Kamara paying the hospital bills of the guy that got beat up, and an apology. It suddenly looks more like a gentlemanly skirmish than Kamara and his buddies assaulting a guy. I'm not a legal expert, but I think we can reasonably see 4-6 games as the likely outcome. If you draft Kamara, it's possible you'll have a featured running back available by mid-October. If you draft Jamaal Williams, his best work will probably come in September. Rookie Kendre Miller? I still like him in dynasty, but there's a really good chance he'll be New Orleans' No. 3 running back no later than Week 7, giving him limited appeal.
Kamara himself, with this case now behind him, looks a little more appealing. Yes he's going to miss some games, but at least there won't be a court case occurring in the preseason, and he's not going to wind up on the commissioner's exempt list (as happened to Adrian Peterson, for example). He'll be playing, once whatever suspension is served, and a Kamara in the lineup has been pretty great in recent years.
Over the last three seasons, among all running backs to play in at least 35 games, it's a really short list of names who have been better in PPR leagues than Kamara. Austin Ekeler, and Derrick Henry -- that's it. Only Ekeler has more receptions per game in that timeframe.
Data from pro-football-reference.com was used in assembling this table.
| RUNNING BACKS PER GAME, 2020-2022 (MINIMUM 35 GAMES) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR |
| Derrick Henry | 40 | 112.6 | 1.8 | 16.7 | 1.0 | 20.7 |
| Austin Ekeler | 43 | 54.8 | 5.4 | 41.2 | 1.0 | 20.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 43 | 63.4 | 4.3 | 39.2 | 0.8 | 19.2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 43 | 89.3 | 2.4 | 18.7 | 0.8 | 18.0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 44 | 88.4 | 2.7 | 20.0 | 0.8 | 17.8 |
| Joe Mixon | 36 | 68.0 | 3.4 | 24.8 | 0.8 | 17.4 |
| Josh Jacobs | 47 | 76.4 | 3.0 | 21.0 | 0.7 | 16.7 |
| Nick Chubb | 43 | 89.6 | 1.5 | 13.1 | 0.8 | 16.4 |
| Aaron Jones | 46 | 65.7 | 3.4 | 24.8 | 0.6 | 16.0 |
| James Conner | 41 | 55.0 | 2.9 | 21.7 | 0.8 | 15.2 |
| D'Andre Swift | 40 | 42.0 | 3.9 | 30.0 | 0.6 | 14.8 |
| David Montgomery | 44 | 61.8 | 3.0 | 24.0 | 0.5 | 14.5 |
| Leonard Fournette | 43 | 43.0 | 4.1 | 28.1 | 0.5 | 14.3 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 47 | 60.8 | 2.5 | 15.3 | 0.7 | 14.1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 45 | 52.8 | 2.8 | 19.9 | 0.6 | 13.3 |
| James Robinson | 39 | 58.0 | 2.3 | 15.8 | 0.6 | 13.2 |
| Miles Sanders | 41 | 70.5 | 1.8 | 10.6 | 0.4 | 12.3 |
| Melvin Gordon | 41 | 54.2 | 2.1 | 14.5 | 0.5 | 11.7 |
| Tony Pollard | 47 | 46.0 | 2.3 | 19.2 | 0.4 | 11.3 |
| Kareem Hunt | 41 | 41.3 | 2.3 | 16.8 | 0.5 | 11.1 |
| Damien Harris | 36 | 57.8 | 1.1 | 7.8 | 0.6 | 10.9 |
| Jamaal Williams | 44 | 49.4 | 1.6 | 10.6 | 0.5 | 10.8 |
| Devin Singletary | 49 | 48.5 | 2.4 | 15.9 | 0.3 | 10.6 |
| Latavius Murray | 42 | 45.6 | 1.4 | 9.1 | 0.4 | 9.4 |
This is not to say it's all good. As we noted in the magazine, Kamara has missed some time -- 7 games in those three seasons, due to knee, ankle and rib injuries. The last two years he's been down at 3.7 and 4.0 yards per attempt, a far cry from the 4.6-plus he averaged each of his first four years. He scored a total of 4 touchdowns last year, regularly vultured by Taysom Hill (and now Williams will be scoring some of those). He turns 28 later this month.
I'm seeing people call this both good news and not good news. The good news camp sees the positive of resolution and the possibility of a shorter suspension. The not good news camp says, He's definitely getting suspended for six games now that he's pled guilty to anything from this incident. I'm more in the former camp, but I suppose drafting a guy who won't be available at least the first month of the season is a deal-breaker for some.
Bottom line: the case is over. With any luck the league will announce its suspension in the next couple of weeks and those with early drafts will know exactly what they'll get, or won't get, from Kamara.
I think as long as you can come up with a fill-in (perhaps Jamaal Williams) at the start of the season, Kamara is now a viable target about 20-22 running backs into a draft (using the magazine, the Pierce-Dobbins area). There are negatives, but upside in PPR leagues, as well.
--Andy Richardson