I expect a rookie tight end or two will make an impact. Nine of them, after all, were selected in the first three rounds. You throw that many darts, and something is going to hit. But the track record for rookie tight ends is pretty lousy.
For this one, I’m going to focus on the second and third rounds. So let’s put Dalton Kincaid to the side; when a tight end is selected in the first round – like Kyle Pitts or T.J. Hockenson – expectations are a little different. I’m looking more at the players who are being drafted to come in and potentially win a viable role. And recent years show that doesn’t happen often.
In the last 10 drafts, 44 tight ends have been selected in the second and third rounds (that’s separate from the eight this year). Of those 44, there’s been a lot more misses than hits. Only four of those 44 posted top-20 numbers in their first season (and I’ve got them in bold in the chart below).
Furthermore, only 12 of those 44 were even the most productive tight ends on their own teams in their first season. Just over a third (15) on the other hand, weren’t even the 2nd-best tight ends on their own roster.
| TIGHT ENDS SELECTED IN THE SECOND AND THIRD ROUNDS (last 10 yrs) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk | Team |
| 2013 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 35 | 36 | 469 | 4 | 106.9 | 23 | 2 |
| 2013 | Gavin Escobar, Dall. | 47 | 9 | 134 | 2 | 34.4 | 54 | 2 |
| 2013 | Vance McDonald, S.F. | 55 | 8 | 119 | 0 | 19.9 | 62 | 2 |
| 2013 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- | 4 |
| 2013 | Jordan Reed, Was. | 85 | 45 | 499 | 3 | 114.7 | 22 | 1 |
| 2014 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins, T.B. | 38 | 21 | 221 | 2 | 55.1 | 41 | 1 |
| 2014 | Jace Amaro, NYJ | 49 | 38 | 345 | 2 | 84.5 | 24 | 1 |
| 2014 | Troy Niklas, Ariz. | 52 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 6.8 | 93 | 4 |
| 2014 | C.J. Fiedorowicz, Hou. | 65 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 12.8 | 80 | 3 |
| 2014 | Richard Rodgers, G.B. | 98 | 20 | 225 | 2 | 54.5 | 43 | 2 |
| 2014 | Crockett Gillmore, Balt. | 99 | 10 | 121 | 1 | 28.1 | 58 | 3 |
| 2015 | Maxx Williams, Balt. | 55 | 32 | 268 | 1 | 64.8 | 39 | 2 |
| 2015 | Clive Walford, Oak. | 68 | 28 | 329 | 3 | 78.9 | 31 | 1 |
| 2015 | Tyler Kroft, Cin. | 85 | 11 | 129 | 1 | 29.9 | 59 | 2 |
| 2015 | Jeff Heuerman, Den. | 92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- | 3 |
| 2016 | Hunter Henry, S.D. | 35 | 36 | 478 | 8 | 131.8 | 18 | 2 |
| 2016 | Austin Hooper, Atl. | 81 | 19 | 271 | 3 | 64.1 | 38 | 1 |
| 2016 | Nick Vannett, Sea. | 94 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 | 94 | 3 |
| 2017 | Gerald Everett, LAR | 44 | 16 | 244 | 2 | 53.7 | 42 | 2 |
| 2017 | Adam Shaheen, Chi. | 45 | 12 | 127 | 3 | 42.7 | 49 | 2 |
| 2017 | Jonnu Smith, Ten. | 100 | 18 | 157 | 2 | 45.7 | 47 | 2 |
| 2018 | Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 42 | 22 | 202 | 0 | 42.2 | 49 | 1 |
| 2018 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 49 | 33 | 334 | 4 | 90.4 | 20 | 2 |
| 2018 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 86 | 34 | 552 | 3 | 107.2 | 17 | 1 |
| 2018 | Jordan Akins, Hou. | 98 | 17 | 225 | 0 | 39.5 | 53 | 3 |
| 2019 | Irv Smith, Min. | 50 | 36 | 311 | 2 | 79.1 | 33 | 2 |
| 2019 | Drew Sample, Cin. | 52 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 8.0 | 92 | 3 |
| 2019 | Josh Oliver, Jac. | 69 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 4.5 | 99 | 4 |
| 2019 | Jace Sternberger, G.B. | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- | 4 |
| 2019 | Kahale Warring, Hou. | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- | 5 |
| 2019 | Dawson Knox, Buff. | 96 | 28 | 388 | 2 | 79.7 | 32 | 1 |
| 2020 | Cole Kmet, Chi. | 43 | 28 | 243 | 2 | 64.0 | 42 | 2 |
| 2020 | Devin Asiasi, N.E. | 91 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 11.9 | 81 | 2 |
| 2020 | Josiah Deguara, G.B. | 94 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2.2 | 107 | 5 |
| 2020 | Dalton Keene, N.E. | 101 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 4.6 | 99 | 3 |
| 2020 | Adam Trautman, N.O. | 105 | 15 | 171 | 1 | 38.1 | 57 | 2 |
| 2021 | Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 55 | 60 | 497 | 7 | 153.7 | 13 | 1 |
| 2021 | Hunter Long, Mia. | 81 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 | 113 | 5 |
| 2021 | Tommy Tremble, Car. | 83 | 20 | 180 | 2 | 53.1 | 45 | 1 |
| 2021 | Tre McKitty, LAC | 97 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Trey McBride, Ariz. | 55 | 29 | 265 | 1 | 61.5 | 40 | 2 |
| 2022 | Jelani Woods, Ind. | 73 | 25 | 312 | 3 | 74.2 | 35 | 1 |
| 2022 | Greg Dulcich, Den. | 80 | 33 | 411 | 2 | 86.1 | 30 | 1 |
| 2022 | Jeremy Ruckert, NYJ | 101 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 | 113 | 3 |
| 2023 | • Sam LaPorta, Det. | 34 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2023 | • Michael Mayer, L.V. | 35 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2023 | • Luke Musgrave, G.B. | 42 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2023 | • Luke Schoonmaker, Dall. | 58 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2023 | • Brenton Strange, Jac. | 61 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2023 | • Tucker Kraft, G.B. | 78 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2023 | • Darnell Washington, Pitt. | 93 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2023 | • Cameron Latu, S.F. | 101 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
With those kind of sobering numbers in mind, best to keep expectations modest. But at the same time, I’m thinking at least one of these first-year guys will play a meaningful role.
If we’re going off offseason press clippings, Sam LaPorta and Luke Musgrave make the most sense. Both generated some buzz at their teams’ OTAs in June. Both were selected early in the second round, and both are going to teams that are looking for pass catchers. I could see selecting one of them as a second tight end in a 12-team league.
Michael Mayer is also a possibility. He’ll probably start for Las Vegas. The other primary option is Austin Hooper (they may both play plenty). But I’m not crazy about that offense in general. I think the Raiders will be the last-place team in the AFC West, and the wheels could really fall off when Jimmy Garoppolo gets hurt like he always done. (Granted, I picked Davante Adams with the 12th pick in a recent PPR draft, but do as I say, not as I do.)
One of the other eight, I think, is worth a mention: Luke Schoonmaker, given that the Cowboys need to replace Dalton Schultz. I expect that Jake Ferguson will be that guy on opening day, but we’ll see. If there’s a clear starting tight end in Dallas, I’m interested.
The other four rookie tight ends drafted in the second and third rounds, I don’t see any of them being worth a roster spot in a typical fantasy league.
—Ian Allan