Factoid

August 04, 2023

No. 2 pick quarterbacks

Zach Wilson part of troubling history

Watching the Jets-Browns game last night, I tried to see the good in Zach Wilson. He made a nice deep throw to Malik Taylor that went for 57 yards; that was encouraging. But he also fell down without being touched on a 3rd-and-2 scramble that went for a sack; that's the lowlight. The question is, is there hope for the youngster?

The Jets gave up a mint to bring in 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers, which essentially suggests they've turned the page on Wilson. Yes he'll be the backup this season, but if Rodgers actually plays two years in New York, the team will have cut ties and he'll be some other team's reclamation project a year or two from now.

Three decades of quarterbacks drafted No. 2 overall suggest Wilson is very unlikely to ever amount to much in the league.

It wasn't always the case. Archie Manning and Bert Jones; those guys had some good seasons. But looking at the last 30 years, there have been almost entirely misses -- one multi-year success story, and a bunch of other guys who had one good season, and that's it.

Donovan McNabb took the Eagles to a Super Bowl; he was also excellent in fantasy terms, with four top-10 seasons. That's your star from the past three decades of No. 2 picks. Carson Wentz did it twice, at the beginning of his career (also with the Eagles), but has bounced around the league since.

Otherwise? Rick Mirer and Robert Griffin, as rookies, had one top 10 season. And that was it for them. Marcus Mariota and Mitchell Trubisky never made it. Wilson is looking like he'll be even below the success of those former No. 2 picks. Based on his first two years, he's in the Ryan Leaf territory.

All the seasons from No. 2 overall quarterbacks from the last 30 years who started at least half the games that year are shown below, sorted by fantasy ranking. Setting aside McNabb, that's four top-12 seasons and a whole lot of junk.

QUARTERBACKS DRAFTED NO. 2 OVERALL, 1993-2022
Year	Player	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Run	TD	Rk
2004	Donovan McNabb, Phil.	15	300	469	3875	31	8	220	3	3
2000	Donovan McNabb, Phil.	16	330	569	3365	21	13	629	6	5
2008	Donovan McNabb, Phil.	16	345	571	3916	23	11	147	2	7
2017	Carson Wentz, Phil.	13	265	440	3296	33	7	299	0	8
2001	Donovan McNabb, Phil.	16	285	493	3233	25	12	482	2	8
2019	Carson Wentz, Phil.	16	388	607	4039	27	7	243	1	9
1993	Rick Mirer, Sea.	16	274	486	2833	12	17	343	3	9
2012	Robert Griffin, Was.	15	258	393	3200	20	5	815	7	10
2009	Donovan McNabb, Phil.	14	267	443	3553	22	10	140	2	12
2002	Donovan McNabb, Phil.	10	211	361	2289	17	6	460	6	13
2003	Donovan McNabb, Phil.	16	275	478	3216	16	11	355	3	13
2021	Carson Wentz, Ind.	17	322	516	3563	27	7	215	1	14
2016	Marcus Mariota, Ten.	15	276	451	3426	26	9	349	2	14
2007	Donovan McNabb, Phil.	14	291	473	3324	19	7	236	0	14
2018	Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.	14	289	434	3223	24	12	421	3	15
2006	Donovan McNabb, Phil.	10	180	316	2647	18	6	212	3	16
2017	Marcus Mariota, Ten.	15	281	453	3232	13	15	312	5	17
2013	Robert Griffin, Was.	13	274	456	3203	16	12	489	0	19
2022	Marcus Mariota, Atl.	13	184	300	2219	15	9	438	4	20
2005	Donovan McNabb, Phil.	9	211	357	2507	16	9	55	1	20
2020	Carson Wentz, Phil.	12	251	437	2620	16	15	276	5	21
2010	Donovan McNabb, Was.	13	275	472	3377	14	15	151	0	21
2016	Carson Wentz, Phil.	16	379	607	3782	16	14	150	2	22
2015	Marcus Mariota, Ten.	12	230	370	2818	19	10	252	3	22
1994	Rick Mirer, Sea.	13	195	381	2151	11	7	153	0	22
2018	Carson Wentz, Phil.	11	279	401	3074	21	7	93	0	23
1995	Rick Mirer, Sea.	13	209	391	2564	13	20	193	1	25
2019	Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.	15	326	516	3138	17	10	193	2	26
2020	Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.	9	199	297	2055	16	8	195	1	27
2018	Marcus Mariota, Ten.	13	228	331	2528	11	8	357	2	27
2000	Ryan Leaf, S.D.	9	161	322	1883	11	18	54	0	28
2017	Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.	12	196	330	2193	7	7	248	2	29
2021	Zach Wilson, NYJ	13	213	383	2334	9	11	185	4	30
1996	Rick Mirer, Sea.	9	136	265	1546	5	12	191	2	31
2022	Zach Wilson, NYJ	9	132	242	1688	6	7	102	2	33
2003	Rick Mirer, Oak.	8	116	221	1267	3	5	83	1	37
1998	Ryan Leaf, S.D.	9	111	245	1289	2	15	80	0	38

No offense is intended to this year's No. 2 overall pick, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. But at least based on where he was selected, it's an ugly history he's up against.

--Andy Richardson

Zach Wilson

6 Reader Comments:

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY

2023-08-04T14:41:52Z

Quarterbacks drafted 1st overall in those same 30 years: Lawrence, Burrow, Murray, Mayfield, Goff, Winston, Luck, Newton, Bradford, Stafford, Russell, Smith, Manning, Palmer, Carr, Vick, Couch, Manning, Bledsoe. It actually isn't quite as impressive as I was expecting, but looks like about a 60 percent hit rate (by my count, 11 out of 19) even if we consider Goff, Winston and Smith all flops (and those guys have had a good season or two along the way).

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2023-08-04T14:42:02Z

Rick Mirer as the No. 9 quarterback in 1993 looks like a typo. He averaged only 177 passing yards, with 12 TDs and 17 interceptions (while starting all 16 games). But a different game at the time. Only four quarterbacks that year threw 20-plus touchdowns. And Mirer ran for 343 yards and 3 TDs (below-average rushing numbers today, but most teams had immobile pocket passers in 1993). I did double-check the numbers, and Mirer was, in fact, the 9th-most productive quarterback that year, using standard scoring. (Also helped by having played a full season -- would rank lower in per-game production.)

Luke Wilson

Richardson, TX

2023-08-04T15:02:54Z

The Jets did something interesting when they finally (mercifully) completed their acquisition of Aaron Rodgers: they didn't immediately dump Wilson on the first team to offer a conditional 8th round pick. It would be a circuitous route to getting to develop under an established vet after starting 22 games, but it's the same one Aaron Rodgers himself took in Green Bay. I don't know if the Jets necessarily still 'have faith' in Wilson but in the always brutal NY media environment to keep Wilson around and invite the potential for even more scalding scrutiny of his selection if he were to be pressed into action could be construed as them thinking he could still maybe be the guy one day. Maybe.

Drew Paterson

Ferndale, WA

2023-08-04T16:25:27Z

Hopefully, between Hard Knocks and the pre-season games, we'll get to see Wilson more than the brief audition last night. The real culprit with the Wilson pick was the Jets scouting department. The offense he played at BYU and the level of competition was not a good comp. for the NFL. That said, Wilson has two more years under contract and another team option for a third. If Rodgers does walk after 1-2 years, and Wilson works on his game and endears himself to the coaches and locker room, there's an outside chance he salvages his career with the Jets as Rodgers successor. With Rodgers talking like he's going to play 3 or more years, however, then Wilson is more likely to get traded or released.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY

2023-08-04T18:56:10Z

The problem with that team option for a third season is New York would need to decide whether or not to pick that up next offseason. Realistically they're declining that option, and (if Rodgers plays two seasons), deciding whether to franchise Wilson in 2025, which isn't happening unless he shows something the next two years (starting a stretch of games while Rodgers is hurt or something), or looking elsewhere for their next quarterback.

Vin Kmetz

Danbury, CT

2023-08-05T02:52:18Z

So, like ZERO hope for Stroud who adds the Ohio State "lost in translation" thing for QBs.. helming a mediocre roster...with its third coach in four years

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No. 2 pick quarterbacks

6 Reader Comments:

Andy Richardson

Ian Allan

Luke Wilson

Drew Paterson

Andy Richardson

Vin Kmetz

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