Watching the Jets-Browns game last night, I tried to see the good in Zach Wilson. He made a nice deep throw to Malik Taylor that went for 57 yards; that was encouraging. But he also fell down without being touched on a 3rd-and-2 scramble that went for a sack; that's the lowlight. The question is, is there hope for the youngster?
The Jets gave up a mint to bring in 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers, which essentially suggests they've turned the page on Wilson. Yes he'll be the backup this season, but if Rodgers actually plays two years in New York, the team will have cut ties and he'll be some other team's reclamation project a year or two from now.
Three decades of quarterbacks drafted No. 2 overall suggest Wilson is very unlikely to ever amount to much in the league.
It wasn't always the case. Archie Manning and Bert Jones; those guys had some good seasons. But looking at the last 30 years, there have been almost entirely misses -- one multi-year success story, and a bunch of other guys who had one good season, and that's it.
Donovan McNabb took the Eagles to a Super Bowl; he was also excellent in fantasy terms, with four top-10 seasons. That's your star from the past three decades of No. 2 picks. Carson Wentz did it twice, at the beginning of his career (also with the Eagles), but has bounced around the league since.
Otherwise? Rick Mirer and Robert Griffin, as rookies, had one top 10 season. And that was it for them. Marcus Mariota and Mitchell Trubisky never made it. Wilson is looking like he'll be even below the success of those former No. 2 picks. Based on his first two years, he's in the Ryan Leaf territory.
All the seasons from No. 2 overall quarterbacks from the last 30 years who started at least half the games that year are shown below, sorted by fantasy ranking. Setting aside McNabb, that's four top-12 seasons and a whole lot of junk.
QUARTERBACKS DRAFTED NO. 2 OVERALL, 1993-2022 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | GS | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Run | TD | Rk |
2004 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 15 | 300 | 469 | 3875 | 31 | 8 | 220 | 3 | 3 |
2000 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 16 | 330 | 569 | 3365 | 21 | 13 | 629 | 6 | 5 |
2008 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 16 | 345 | 571 | 3916 | 23 | 11 | 147 | 2 | 7 |
2017 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 13 | 265 | 440 | 3296 | 33 | 7 | 299 | 0 | 8 |
2001 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 16 | 285 | 493 | 3233 | 25 | 12 | 482 | 2 | 8 |
2019 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 388 | 607 | 4039 | 27 | 7 | 243 | 1 | 9 |
1993 | Rick Mirer, Sea. | 16 | 274 | 486 | 2833 | 12 | 17 | 343 | 3 | 9 |
2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 258 | 393 | 3200 | 20 | 5 | 815 | 7 | 10 |
2009 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 14 | 267 | 443 | 3553 | 22 | 10 | 140 | 2 | 12 |
2002 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 10 | 211 | 361 | 2289 | 17 | 6 | 460 | 6 | 13 |
2003 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 16 | 275 | 478 | 3216 | 16 | 11 | 355 | 3 | 13 |
2021 | Carson Wentz, Ind. | 17 | 322 | 516 | 3563 | 27 | 7 | 215 | 1 | 14 |
2016 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 15 | 276 | 451 | 3426 | 26 | 9 | 349 | 2 | 14 |
2007 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 14 | 291 | 473 | 3324 | 19 | 7 | 236 | 0 | 14 |
2018 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 14 | 289 | 434 | 3223 | 24 | 12 | 421 | 3 | 15 |
2006 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 10 | 180 | 316 | 2647 | 18 | 6 | 212 | 3 | 16 |
2017 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 15 | 281 | 453 | 3232 | 13 | 15 | 312 | 5 | 17 |
2013 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 13 | 274 | 456 | 3203 | 16 | 12 | 489 | 0 | 19 |
2022 | Marcus Mariota, Atl. | 13 | 184 | 300 | 2219 | 15 | 9 | 438 | 4 | 20 |
2005 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 9 | 211 | 357 | 2507 | 16 | 9 | 55 | 1 | 20 |
2020 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 12 | 251 | 437 | 2620 | 16 | 15 | 276 | 5 | 21 |
2010 | Donovan McNabb, Was. | 13 | 275 | 472 | 3377 | 14 | 15 | 151 | 0 | 21 |
2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 379 | 607 | 3782 | 16 | 14 | 150 | 2 | 22 |
2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 230 | 370 | 2818 | 19 | 10 | 252 | 3 | 22 |
1994 | Rick Mirer, Sea. | 13 | 195 | 381 | 2151 | 11 | 7 | 153 | 0 | 22 |
2018 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 11 | 279 | 401 | 3074 | 21 | 7 | 93 | 0 | 23 |
1995 | Rick Mirer, Sea. | 13 | 209 | 391 | 2564 | 13 | 20 | 193 | 1 | 25 |
2019 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 15 | 326 | 516 | 3138 | 17 | 10 | 193 | 2 | 26 |
2020 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 9 | 199 | 297 | 2055 | 16 | 8 | 195 | 1 | 27 |
2018 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 13 | 228 | 331 | 2528 | 11 | 8 | 357 | 2 | 27 |
2000 | Ryan Leaf, S.D. | 9 | 161 | 322 | 1883 | 11 | 18 | 54 | 0 | 28 |
2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 196 | 330 | 2193 | 7 | 7 | 248 | 2 | 29 |
2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 213 | 383 | 2334 | 9 | 11 | 185 | 4 | 30 |
1996 | Rick Mirer, Sea. | 9 | 136 | 265 | 1546 | 5 | 12 | 191 | 2 | 31 |
2022 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 9 | 132 | 242 | 1688 | 6 | 7 | 102 | 2 | 33 |
2003 | Rick Mirer, Oak. | 8 | 116 | 221 | 1267 | 3 | 5 | 83 | 1 | 37 |
1998 | Ryan Leaf, S.D. | 9 | 111 | 245 | 1289 | 2 | 15 | 80 | 0 | 38 |
No offense is intended to this year's No. 2 overall pick, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. But at least based on where he was selected, it's an ugly history he's up against.
--Andy Richardson