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Factoid

Wide receivers in poor passing games

How good can London, Pittman be?

In my Drake London story yesterday, a reader asked how good even a No. 1 wide receiver in a lesser passing game might be. Although we can't be certain, we can say with some degree of confidence that the Falcons are one of those teams that will have a lesser passing game.

Some of the highly regarded wide receivers we're relatively cool on include Michael Pittman (pictured), Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. They're No. 1 type guys who have put up top numbers in the past, but the Colts will probably emphasize the run (particularly if Anthony Richardson starts most of the season), while the Bucs will be starting either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask and probably not pass it very well. If I had to guess right now what the bottom-5 passing offenses would be, they'd probably include the Falcons, Colts, Texans, Bucs and either the Bears or Titans -- those seem like the favorites.

So I pulled the five worst passing offenses from each of the last 10 years; that's 50 total offenses. And then I looked at how the No. 1 wide receiver from each of those teams fared. Ultimately, it wasn't as bad as I thought it would be.

There were no top-10 wideouts (PPR) from those 50 teams. So if you're with us on those being the worst passing offenses this year, don't be looking for that level of production.

But there were 10 who finished between 15th and 25th at the position, and 10 more who made it into the top 30. Lesser passing offense or no -- and again, all of these players were on teams that ranked 28th-32nd in passing -- the No. 1 wideouts on those teams can be quality fantasy starters; top 30 at the position 40 percent of the time. So it gives you an idea of the ceiling for players like London and Pittman, but doesn't mean they shouldn't be drafted. Just that they shouldn't be overvalued.

No. 1 wideouts from each of those bottom-5 passing offenses the last 10 years are shown below, sorted by PPR rank. The 2022 representatives (which include London) are in bold.

NO. 1 WRS FROM BOTTOM-5 PASSING GAMES, 2013-2022
YearPlayerTgtRecYdsAvgTDRk
2015Jeremy Maclin, K.C.12487108812.5815
2013Anquan Boldin, S.F.12985117913.9715
2013Vincent Jackson, T.B.16078122415.7716
2021DJ Moore, Car.16393115712.4417
2021Michael Pittman, Ind.12988108212.3618
2019Courtland Sutton, Den.12472111215.4619
2014Anquan Boldin, S.F.13083106212.8519
2015Sammy Watkins, Buff.9660104717.5920
2017Devin Funchess, Car.1116384013.3822
2022DJ Moore, Car.1186388814.1725
2018Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.1126973410.6626
2014Eric Decker, NYJ1157496213.0526
2017T.Y. Hilton, Ind.1095796617.0427
2015Tavon Austin, St.L.87524739.1527
2022Drake London, Atl.1177286612.0428
2016Kenny Britt, LAR11168100214.7528
2018Corey Davis, Ten.1126589113.7429
2016DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.1517895412.2429
2021DeVonta Smith, Phil.1046491614.3530
2019Terry McLaurin, Was.935891915.8730
2020Marquise Brown, Balt.1005876913.3836
2017Mike Wallace, Balt.925274814.4438
2020Jamison Crowder, NYJ895969911.9639
2019Diontae Johnson, Pitt.925968011.5539
2015Anquan Boldin, S.F.1116978911.4440
2014Greg Jennings, Min.925974212.6642
2021Marquez Callaway, N.O.844669815.2643
2020Sterling Shepard, NYG90666569.9343
2020Tim Patrick, Den.795174214.6644
2016Quincy Enunwa, NYJ1055885714.8445
2019Marquise Brown, Balt.714658412.7746
2015Stefon Diggs, Min.845272013.9447
2014Allen Hurns, Jac.975167713.3649
2018Kenny Stills, Mia.643755315.0652
2020Jakobi Meyers, N.E.815972912.4053
2019Zach Pascal, Ind.724160714.8553
2017Kendall Wright, Chi.915961410.4153
2016Jeremy Kerley, S.F.1156466710.4353
2013Tavon Austin, St.L.694041810.5453
2013Stevie Johnson, Buff.1015259711.5354
2022Robert Woods, Ten.91535279.9257
2014Dwayne Bowe, K.C.956075412.6057
2013Jeremy Kerley, NYJ724352312.2360
2022Devin Duvernay, Balt.493740711.0361
2018Josh Doctson, Was.784453212.1267
2016Robert Woods, Buff.765161312.0167
2022Darnell Mooney, Chi.614049312.3273
2018Robert Foster, Buff.442754120.0376
2021Kenny Golladay, NYG763752114.1079
2017Zay Jones, Buff.742731611.7287

--Andy Richardson

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