In my Drake London story yesterday, a reader asked how good even a No. 1 wide receiver in a lesser passing game might be. Although we can't be certain, we can say with some degree of confidence that the Falcons are one of those teams that will have a lesser passing game.
Some of the highly regarded wide receivers we're relatively cool on include Michael Pittman (pictured), Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. They're No. 1 type guys who have put up top numbers in the past, but the Colts will probably emphasize the run (particularly if Anthony Richardson starts most of the season), while the Bucs will be starting either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask and probably not pass it very well. If I had to guess right now what the bottom-5 passing offenses would be, they'd probably include the Falcons, Colts, Texans, Bucs and either the Bears or Titans -- those seem like the favorites.
So I pulled the five worst passing offenses from each of the last 10 years; that's 50 total offenses. And then I looked at how the No. 1 wide receiver from each of those teams fared. Ultimately, it wasn't as bad as I thought it would be.
There were no top-10 wideouts (PPR) from those 50 teams. So if you're with us on those being the worst passing offenses this year, don't be looking for that level of production.
But there were 10 who finished between 15th and 25th at the position, and 10 more who made it into the top 30. Lesser passing offense or no -- and again, all of these players were on teams that ranked 28th-32nd in passing -- the No. 1 wideouts on those teams can be quality fantasy starters; top 30 at the position 40 percent of the time. So it gives you an idea of the ceiling for players like London and Pittman, but doesn't mean they shouldn't be drafted. Just that they shouldn't be overvalued.
No. 1 wideouts from each of those bottom-5 passing offenses the last 10 years are shown below, sorted by PPR rank. The 2022 representatives (which include London) are in bold.
| NO. 1 WRS FROM BOTTOM-5 PASSING GAMES, 2013-2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Rk |
| 2015 | Jeremy Maclin, K.C. | 124 | 87 | 1088 | 12.5 | 8 | 15 |
| 2013 | Anquan Boldin, S.F. | 129 | 85 | 1179 | 13.9 | 7 | 15 |
| 2013 | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 160 | 78 | 1224 | 15.7 | 7 | 16 |
| 2021 | DJ Moore, Car. | 163 | 93 | 1157 | 12.4 | 4 | 17 |
| 2021 | Michael Pittman, Ind. | 129 | 88 | 1082 | 12.3 | 6 | 18 |
| 2019 | Courtland Sutton, Den. | 124 | 72 | 1112 | 15.4 | 6 | 19 |
| 2014 | Anquan Boldin, S.F. | 130 | 83 | 1062 | 12.8 | 5 | 19 |
| 2015 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 96 | 60 | 1047 | 17.5 | 9 | 20 |
| 2017 | Devin Funchess, Car. | 111 | 63 | 840 | 13.3 | 8 | 22 |
| 2022 | DJ Moore, Car. | 118 | 63 | 888 | 14.1 | 7 | 25 |
| 2018 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 112 | 69 | 734 | 10.6 | 6 | 26 |
| 2014 | Eric Decker, NYJ | 115 | 74 | 962 | 13.0 | 5 | 26 |
| 2017 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 109 | 57 | 966 | 17.0 | 4 | 27 |
| 2015 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 87 | 52 | 473 | 9.1 | 5 | 27 |
| 2022 | Drake London, Atl. | 117 | 72 | 866 | 12.0 | 4 | 28 |
| 2016 | Kenny Britt, LAR | 111 | 68 | 1002 | 14.7 | 5 | 28 |
| 2018 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 112 | 65 | 891 | 13.7 | 4 | 29 |
| 2016 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 151 | 78 | 954 | 12.2 | 4 | 29 |
| 2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 104 | 64 | 916 | 14.3 | 5 | 30 |
| 2019 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 93 | 58 | 919 | 15.8 | 7 | 30 |
| 2020 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 100 | 58 | 769 | 13.3 | 8 | 36 |
| 2017 | Mike Wallace, Balt. | 92 | 52 | 748 | 14.4 | 4 | 38 |
| 2020 | Jamison Crowder, NYJ | 89 | 59 | 699 | 11.9 | 6 | 39 |
| 2019 | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 92 | 59 | 680 | 11.5 | 5 | 39 |
| 2015 | Anquan Boldin, S.F. | 111 | 69 | 789 | 11.4 | 4 | 40 |
| 2014 | Greg Jennings, Min. | 92 | 59 | 742 | 12.6 | 6 | 42 |
| 2021 | Marquez Callaway, N.O. | 84 | 46 | 698 | 15.2 | 6 | 43 |
| 2020 | Sterling Shepard, NYG | 90 | 66 | 656 | 9.9 | 3 | 43 |
| 2020 | Tim Patrick, Den. | 79 | 51 | 742 | 14.6 | 6 | 44 |
| 2016 | Quincy Enunwa, NYJ | 105 | 58 | 857 | 14.8 | 4 | 45 |
| 2019 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 71 | 46 | 584 | 12.7 | 7 | 46 |
| 2015 | Stefon Diggs, Min. | 84 | 52 | 720 | 13.9 | 4 | 47 |
| 2014 | Allen Hurns, Jac. | 97 | 51 | 677 | 13.3 | 6 | 49 |
| 2018 | Kenny Stills, Mia. | 64 | 37 | 553 | 15.0 | 6 | 52 |
| 2020 | Jakobi Meyers, N.E. | 81 | 59 | 729 | 12.4 | 0 | 53 |
| 2019 | Zach Pascal, Ind. | 72 | 41 | 607 | 14.8 | 5 | 53 |
| 2017 | Kendall Wright, Chi. | 91 | 59 | 614 | 10.4 | 1 | 53 |
| 2016 | Jeremy Kerley, S.F. | 115 | 64 | 667 | 10.4 | 3 | 53 |
| 2013 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 69 | 40 | 418 | 10.5 | 4 | 53 |
| 2013 | Stevie Johnson, Buff. | 101 | 52 | 597 | 11.5 | 3 | 54 |
| 2022 | Robert Woods, Ten. | 91 | 53 | 527 | 9.9 | 2 | 57 |
| 2014 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 95 | 60 | 754 | 12.6 | 0 | 57 |
| 2013 | Jeremy Kerley, NYJ | 72 | 43 | 523 | 12.2 | 3 | 60 |
| 2022 | Devin Duvernay, Balt. | 49 | 37 | 407 | 11.0 | 3 | 61 |
| 2018 | Josh Doctson, Was. | 78 | 44 | 532 | 12.1 | 2 | 67 |
| 2016 | Robert Woods, Buff. | 76 | 51 | 613 | 12.0 | 1 | 67 |
| 2022 | Darnell Mooney, Chi. | 61 | 40 | 493 | 12.3 | 2 | 73 |
| 2018 | Robert Foster, Buff. | 44 | 27 | 541 | 20.0 | 3 | 76 |
| 2021 | Kenny Golladay, NYG | 76 | 37 | 521 | 14.1 | 0 | 79 |
| 2017 | Zay Jones, Buff. | 74 | 27 | 316 | 11.7 | 2 | 87 |
--Andy Richardson