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Team projections

Revised team forecast

Offensive projections for all 32 teams

We’ve completed the weekly audit of our player projections. Adjustments have been made, and they’re working their way through our system as we speak. They’ll be showing up in your email box soon.

Player adjustments have been made to account for injuries, and we’ve re-worked the projections for the backfields of the Jets (Dalvin Cook) and Patriots (Ezekiel Elliott).

In our system of player grading, the players and the teams are tied together. That is, when Kansas City is projected to throw 40 touchdowns, those touchdowns are then allocated among their various receivers. (It wouldn’t make any sense for Patrick Mahomes to throw 40 touchdowns but his receivers to combine to catch 50.)

We also keep an eye on league averages. We’ve currently got half of the NFL’s offenses scoring 43-plus touchdowns, with four offenses reaching 3-plus touchdowns per week. And we’ve got the other half of the league under 43 touchdowns, with four teams averaging under 2 TDs per week. We’re trying to keep our model statistically sound.

Setting aside the players and looking at the teams, it provides a general sense of which offenses we think will be performing well. If our expectations are correct, five offenses will score 50-plus touchdowns. That includes four who were really good last year (KC, Bills, Eagles, Bengals) and the Chargers. (We’re believers in Los Angeles, with Justin Herbert a worthy member of the top tier of quarterbacks.)

TEAM TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
OffensePassRunTotal
Kansas City39.817.056.8
Buffalo34.017.351.3
Philadelphia27.024.351.3
Cincinnati37.713.351.0
LA Chargers36.013.950.0
Dallas30.617.347.9
Jacksonville32.315.047.3
San Francisco27.019.746.8
Detroit27.519.046.6
NY Jets31.614.145.7
Miami31.313.945.2
Baltimore27.517.044.5
Minnesota30.613.444.0
Seattle28.214.843.0
Cleveland23.119.442.5
New Orleans26.515.542.0
Chicago22.317.740.0
Green Bay24.815.140.0
Pittsburgh23.015.838.8
Denver24.514.338.8
New England22.616.238.8
Atlanta19.718.938.6
NY Giants20.617.337.9
Las Vegas24.713.037.7
Washington22.313.635.9
Indianapolis15.818.734.5
Tennessee20.513.934.4
Carolina21.112.934.0
LA Rams20.113.633.7
Houston19.612.932.4
Tampa Bay21.19.030.1
Arizona17.310.928.2

For passing production, we’ve got four of those same five teams in the top group, with the Vikings replacing the Eagles (who have a more run-oriented scheme).

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
OffenseYardsTDPPoints
Kansas City2982.3443.8
Cincinnati2852.2241.8
LA Chargers2882.1241.5
Buffalo2602.0038.0
Minnesota2651.8037.3
Miami2621.8437.2
Jacksonville2581.9037.2
NY Jets2531.8636.5
Philadelphia2601.5935.5
Dallas2471.8035.5
Seattle2451.6634.5
Baltimore2471.6234.4
Detroit2421.6233.9
New Orleans2441.5633.8
San Francisco2341.5932.9
Las Vegas2401.4532.7
Denver2351.4432.1
New England2401.3332.0
Pittsburgh2351.3531.6
Cleveland2331.3631.5
Green Bay2271.4631.5
NY Giants2361.2130.9
LA Rams2361.1830.7
Washington2151.3129.4
Tampa Bay2171.2429.1
Tennessee2181.2029.0
Carolina2151.2428.9
Chicago2031.3128.2
Arizona2201.0228.1
Atlanta2051.1627.5
Houston2051.1527.4
Indianapolis195.9325.1

For rushing production, we’re projecting that six offenses will average at least 20 points per game (using 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 rushing yards). We’re leaving the Colts in that group (figuring they’ll resolve their differences with Jonathan Taylor and be helped along by a mobile quarterback).

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
OffenseYardsTDRPoints
Philadelphia1401.4322.6
Chicago1501.0421.2
Indianapolis1451.1021.1
San Francisco1401.1621.0
Atlanta1411.1120.8
Cleveland1371.1420.5
Buffalo1361.0219.7
Baltimore1351.0019.5
NY Giants1261.0218.7
Detroit1191.1218.6
Dallas1221.0218.3
Green Bay127.8918.0
Kansas City1191.0017.9
Pittsburgh122.9317.8
Seattle120.8717.2
New England115.9517.2
Washington123.8017.1
New Orleans115.9117.0
Jacksonville114.8816.7
Denver116.8416.6
Tennessee117.8216.6
NY Jets112.8316.2
Miami110.8215.9
Las Vegas113.7615.9
Carolina112.7615.8
LA Rams109.8015.7
Houston107.7615.2
Cincinnati100.7814.7
LA Chargers96.8214.5
Minnesota93.7914.0
Arizona99.6413.7
Tampa Bay102.5313.4

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index