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Team projections

Great expectations

Rankings the offenses 1-32

The season opens in less than a week, so now seems like a good time to lock in only my overall projections for the lay of the land – the 1 thru 32 expectations for each offense.

Apologies if there are not enough “surprise” choices in here, but these are the numbers I’ve settled on. These are the numbers that are then divvied up amongst the players on each offense, driving our individual player ratings.

Note that offenses over the last two years have averaged 40.4 touchdowns. I try to keep about half of the teams above that level. A few teams will finish below 30 total touchdowns. I’m comfortable saying the Cardinals will be one of those teams. With the Bucs, Colts, Texans and Rams, I wasn’t confident enough yet to move them all the way down into that sucky 28-TD range.

I am projecting that 10 teams will score at least 4 more touchdowns than they did last year. I’ve got those teams tagged with black dots. Most notably the four up-and-coming offenses that might crack the top 10 – Chargers, Jaguars, Jets, Ravens (I am buying into those teams, with Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers looking like key players).

I have projected only five offenses to score at least 4 fewer touchdowns than last year, and I’ve got them in bold. (Three are of the of regression-to-the-mean variety: Eagles, Cowboys, Lions.) I am often accused of being somewhat negative, but here’s a year where I have twice as many offenses improving by 4 TDs rather than declining by that amount.

TEAM TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
OffensePassRunTotal
Kansas City39.616.856.4
Philadelphia27.224.351.5
Cincinnati37.713.651.3
Buffalo34.017.051.0
• LA Chargers35.215.350.5
San Francisco28.219.247.4
• Jacksonville32.115.047.1
Dallas30.816.046.8
Detroit27.218.745.9
• NY Jets31.313.845.2
Miami31.113.444.5
• Baltimore27.516.644.1
Minnesota30.413.443.9
Seattle28.414.643.0
Cleveland23.218.541.7
• New Orleans26.214.841.0
AVG (2021-22)24.915.540.4
• Pittsburgh24.015.839.8
Green Bay25.314.339.7
Chicago21.917.038.9
• Atlanta20.218.438.6
NY Giants22.415.838.3
• Denver23.713.837.5
• New England21.915.237.2
Las Vegas24.412.837.1
Washington23.612.536.1
Carolina21.612.434.0
Tennessee19.614.534.0
LA Rams19.912.632.5
Houston19.012.831.8
• Indianapolis14.816.230.9
Tampa Bay21.19.030.1
Arizona16.59.025.5

Looking solely at passing production, I’ve got the expected cast of characters in my top half dozen – KC, Bengals, Chargers, Bills, Dolphins, Jaguars.

And nothing too surprising at the bottom, where there are a healthy number of lesser or run-oriented offenses. Mildly surprising, perhaps, that I was able to find 10 offenses that will finish with crappier passing numbers than the Patriots.

Teams ranked using 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 passing yards, but if you were to instead use 4 for TD passes and 1 for every 20 or 25 passing yards, the ordering would be very similar.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
OffenseYardsTDPPoints
Kansas City2982.3343.8
Cincinnati2822.2241.5
LA Chargers2852.0740.9
Buffalo2602.0038.0
Miami2641.8337.4
Jacksonville2561.8936.9
Minnesota2611.7936.8
NY Jets2511.8436.2
Dallas2481.8135.7
Philadelphia2581.6035.4
Seattle2471.6734.7
Baltimore2471.6234.4
San Francisco2401.6634.0
Detroit2421.6033.8
New Orleans2441.5433.6
Avg (2021-22)2391.4732.7
Las Vegas2401.4332.6
Pittsburgh2371.4132.2
Green Bay2311.4932.0
NY Giants2391.3231.8
Denver2341.3931.8
Cleveland2351.3631.7
New England2341.2931.1
Washington2261.3930.9
LA Rams2361.1730.6
Tampa Bay2201.2429.4
Carolina2181.2729.4
Atlanta2141.1928.5
Tennessee2151.1528.4
Chicago2031.2928.0
Houston2051.1227.2
Arizona200.9725.8
Indianapolis190.8724.2

For rushing production, the projections might be a little stagnant. The top half dozen are all teams that were really good last year – Eagles, Bears, 49ers, Falcons, Browns, Ravens.

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
OffenseYardsTDRPoints
Philadelphia1401.4322.6
Chicago1501.0021.0
San Francisco1401.1320.8
Atlanta1361.0820.1
Cleveland1341.0919.9
Baltimore135.9719.3
Buffalo1311.0019.1
Indianapolis133.9519.0
Detroit1191.1018.5
Pittsburgh122.9317.8
Kansas City118.9917.7
Green Bay125.8417.6
NY Giants119.9317.5
Dallas118.9417.4
Avg (2021-22)118.9117.3
Tennessee121.8517.2
Seattle118.8617.0
New England114.9016.8
New Orleans115.8716.7
Jacksonville114.8816.7
Denver117.8116.6
Washington120.7316.4
NY Jets113.8116.2
Las Vegas116.7516.1
LA Chargers104.9015.8
Miami110.7915.7
Carolina108.7315.2
LA Rams105.7414.9
Houston103.7514.8
Minnesota98.7914.5
Cincinnati97.8014.5
Tampa Bay95.5312.7
Arizona93.5312.5

—Ian Allan

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