The Bengals play the Falcons tonight, and the running back usage (for both teams) is one interesting thing to watch. For Atlanta, perhaps we'll get a sense of how their talented backfield might play out. For Cincinnati, they need to settle on a Joe Mixon backup.
Mixon is getting up there in age, and seemed to slow down some last year (Samaje Perine was on the field more than Mixon in both of their playoff games), But Cincinnati has shown no interest in adding a veteran, so they'll apparently be backing him up with some late-round draft pick. It will either be former sixth-rounder Chris Evans, or fifth-round rookie Chase Brown (pictured).
(There was some early camp buzz about another former sixth-rounder, Trayveon Williams, but I have zero interest in a guy who's averaged 12 carries the last four seasons suddenly emerging, plus he's been sidelined with an ankle injury anyway.)
Should be Evans or Brown, each of whom contributed one longer play in the first exhibition while alternating series. Perhaps tonight will offer some clarity on which one is most likely to be Mixon's backup. While it's true there haven't been a ton of hits from that area of the draft, it does happen.
In the last decade, there have been 40 top-30 fantasy seasons (PPR) from running backs selected in the fifth through seventh rounds. I extended it to 30 to include Falcons' runner Tyler Allgeier, who finished 30th at the position last year. So that's an average of four relevant seasons per year from a running back selected from the fifth round on. Obviously Evans or Brown will require an injury, or suspension, ahead of them to join that group, but you never know. Perhaps one will be the next Aaron Jones, Chris Carson or Allgeier.
| TOP-30 SEASONS, RUNNING BACKS DRAFTED 5TH-7TH ROUNDS (2013-) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Year | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | Pts | Rk |
| 5 | 2022 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 1121 | 59 | 395 | 7 | 254.6 | 7 |
| 5 | 2022 | Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 1035 | 16 | 139 | 4 | 159.4 | 30 |
| 5 | 2021 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 799 | 52 | 391 | 10 | 231.0 | 11 |
| 7 | 2021 | Myles Gaskin, Mia. | 612 | 49 | 234 | 7 | 175.6 | 25 |
| 6 | 2021 | Elijah Mitchell, S.F. | 963 | 19 | 137 | 6 | 165.0 | 26 |
| 5 | 2020 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 1104 | 47 | 355 | 11 | 258.9 | 5 |
| 7 | 2020 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 681 | 37 | 287 | 9 | 187.8 | 20 |
| 7 | 2020 | Myles Gaskin, Mia. | 584 | 41 | 388 | 5 | 168.2 | 25 |
| 5 | 2019 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 1084 | 49 | 474 | 19 | 318.8 | 2 |
| 7 | 2019 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 1230 | 37 | 266 | 9 | 240.6 | 12 |
| 6 | 2019 | Latavius Murray, N.O. | 637 | 34 | 235 | 6 | 157.2 | 29 |
| 7 | 2018 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 1151 | 20 | 163 | 9 | 205.4 | 15 |
| 5 | 2018 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 935 | 20 | 145 | 9 | 182.0 | 21 |
| 5 | 2018 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 728 | 26 | 206 | 9 | 173.4 | 24 |
| 5 | 2018 | Dion Lewis, Ten. | 517 | 59 | 400 | 2 | 162.7 | 27 |
| 5 | 2017 | Dion Lewis, N.E. | 896 | 32 | 214 | 10 | 203.0 | 13 |
| 5 | 2017 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1122 | 23 | 125 | 9 | 201.7 | 15 |
| 5 | 2017 | Alex Collins, Balt. | 973 | 23 | 187 | 6 | 175.0 | 19 |
| 6 | 2017 | Latavius Murray, Min. | 842 | 15 | 103 | 8 | 157.5 | 25 |
| 6 | 2017 | Theo Riddick, Det. | 286 | 53 | 444 | 5 | 156.0 | 26 |
| 5 | 2017 | Chris Thompson, Was. | 294 | 39 | 510 | 6 | 155.4 | 27 |
| 5 | 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1313 | 29 | 298 | 7 | 232.1 | 10 |
| 5 | 2016 | Jay Ajayi, Mia. | 1272 | 27 | 151 | 8 | 217.3 | 11 |
| 6 | 2016 | Latavius Murray, Oak. | 788 | 33 | 264 | 12 | 210.2 | 13 |
| 6 | 2016 | Spencer Ware, K.C. | 921 | 33 | 447 | 5 | 199.8 | 16 |
| 6 | 2016 | Theo Riddick, Det. | 357 | 53 | 371 | 6 | 161.8 | 25 |
| 5 | 2016 | Chris Thompson, Was. | 356 | 49 | 349 | 5 | 149.5 | 28 |
| 6 | 2015 | Latavius Murray, Oak. | 1066 | 41 | 232 | 6 | 206.8 | 10 |
| 6 | 2015 | Theo Riddick, Det. | 133 | 80 | 697 | 3 | 181.0 | 19 |
| 6 | 2015 | James Starks, G.B. | 601 | 43 | 392 | 5 | 172.3 | 21 |
| 7 | 2015 | Rashad Jennings, NYG | 863 | 29 | 296 | 4 | 168.9 | 22 |
| 7 | 2014 | Justin Forsett, Balt. | 1266 | 44 | 263 | 8 | 246.9 | 8 |
| 6 | 2014 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 1074 | 17 | 155 | 8 | 187.9 | 17 |
| 6 | 2014 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 660 | 46 | 395 | 5 | 181.5 | 19 |
| 7 | 2014 | Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind. | 425 | 38 | 300 | 8 | 158.5 | 23 |
| 7 | 2014 | Rashad Jennings, NYG | 639 | 30 | 226 | 4 | 140.5 | 29 |
| 6 | 2013 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 1275 | 9 | 78 | 7 | 186.3 | 20 |
| 5 | 2013 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 973 | 26 | 141 | 8 | 185.4 | 21 |
| 7 | 2013 | Rashad Jennings, Oak. | 733 | 36 | 292 | 6 | 174.5 | 24 |
| 6 | 2013 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 652 | 39 | 371 | 4 | 165.3 | 26 |
Based on what I saw last week, I'll give the edge to Brown. Neither looked great (small sample set) against the Packers, though they got what was blocked. Evans seems to have had his shot without really capitalizing, while Brown is a comparative unknown. Hopefully tonight will provide a little more information on both players.
--Andy Richardson