Earlier this week I posted a recap of a PPR draft I'm participating in, and a reader noted that quarterbacks went considerably later than his custom rankings suggested. At the time I noted that quarterbacks tend to go later in experts drafts, but it merits further discussion.
Yes, quarterbacks tend to go later in experts leagues than they do in home leagues. It almost, I think, becomes a point of pride not to select a quarterback. But not always: in the Experts Draft in our preseason magazine, Josh Allen went in the second round. No two drafts are alike, and occasionally the right drafter, expert or not, in the right spot will see the value in taking a top quarterback before anyone else. There's no one way to win a league.
Broadly, how much better off might you be if you're the first expert to select a quarterback, or the last? There's no easy way to answer the question, because we don't know for sure, right now, who the top quarterback will be (or the 12th). But for now, I thought I'd take a look at just how much of an edge the top quarterbacks gave you over the 12th-best quarterbacks in recent years. If they're close, it's an argument for waiting to be one of the last participants to select a quarterback. If the top ones are routinely lapping the field, giving a significant edge week after week, you probably did the right thing selecting one early (even if it doesn't always work out that the first quarterback selected is the No. 1 guy that season).
Table shows the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks (1 point for 20 passing and 10 rushing yards, 4 point TD passes, 6 point TD runs, no negative points for interceptions) in each of the last five years, sorted by fantasy points per game. The No. 1 QB (for the season) in each year is in bold, the No. 12 is in italics, so the disparity can easily be spotted.
| TOP 12 FANTASY QUARTERBACKS, 2018-2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pass | TD | Run | TD | Pts | Rk | Pts/G |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 5250 | 41 | 358 | 4 | 493.9 | 1 | 29.1 |
| 2022 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 4283 | 35 | 762 | 7 | 476.4 | 2 | 29.8 |
| 2022 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 3701 | 22 | 760 | 13 | 431.1 | 3 | 28.7 |
| 2022 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 4475 | 35 | 257 | 5 | 425.5 | 4 | 26.6 |
| 2022 | Geno Smith, Sea. | 4282 | 30 | 366 | 1 | 376.7 | 5 | 22.2 |
| 2022 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 4547 | 29 | 97 | 2 | 371.1 | 6 | 21.8 |
| 2022 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 4113 | 25 | 291 | 5 | 370.8 | 7 | 21.8 |
| 2022 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 4739 | 25 | 147 | 0 | 354.7 | 8 | 20.9 |
| 2022 | Jared Goff, Det. | 4438 | 29 | 73 | 0 | 350.7 | 9 | 20.6 |
| 2022 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 4694 | 25 | -1 | 1 | 344.6 | 10 | 20.3 |
| 2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 2242 | 17 | 1143 | 8 | 344.4 | 11 | 23.0 |
| 2022 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 3205 | 15 | 708 | 7 | 337.1 | 12 | 21.1 |
| 2021 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 4407 | 36 | 763 | 6 | 482.7 | 1 | 28.4 |
| 2021 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 5014 | 38 | 302 | 3 | 462.9 | 2 | 27.2 |
| 2021 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 5316 | 43 | 81 | 2 | 457.9 | 3 | 26.9 |
| 2021 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 4839 | 37 | 381 | 2 | 444.1 | 4 | 26.1 |
| 2021 | Matthew Stafford, LAR | 4886 | 41 | 43 | 0 | 416.6 | 5 | 24.5 |
| 2021 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 4449 | 37 | 146 | 1 | 397.1 | 6 | 24.8 |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 4611 | 34 | 118 | 2 | 392.4 | 7 | 24.5 |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4115 | 37 | 101 | 3 | 382.5 | 8 | 23.9 |
| 2021 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 3144 | 16 | 784 | 10 | 365.6 | 9 | 24.4 |
| 2021 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 4221 | 33 | 115 | 1 | 360.6 | 10 | 22.5 |
| 2021 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 3787 | 24 | 423 | 5 | 358.4 | 11 | 25.6 |
| 2021 | Derek Carr, L.V. | 4804 | 23 | 108 | 0 | 343.0 | 12 | 20.2 |
| 2020 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 4544 | 37 | 421 | 8 | 473.5 | 1 | 29.6 |
| 2020 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 3971 | 26 | 819 | 11 | 450.5 | 2 | 28.2 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4299 | 48 | 149 | 3 | 440.3 | 3 | 27.5 |
| 2020 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 4740 | 38 | 308 | 2 | 437.8 | 4 | 29.2 |
| 2020 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 4823 | 33 | 444 | 3 | 437.6 | 5 | 27.3 |
| 2020 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 4212 | 40 | 513 | 2 | 435.9 | 6 | 27.2 |
| 2020 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 4633 | 40 | 6 | 3 | 410.3 | 7 | 25.6 |
| 2020 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 3819 | 33 | 266 | 7 | 398.6 | 8 | 24.9 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 4336 | 31 | 234 | 5 | 398.2 | 9 | 26.5 |
| 2020 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 2757 | 26 | 1005 | 7 | 386.4 | 10 | 25.8 |
| 2020 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 4265 | 35 | 156 | 1 | 384.9 | 11 | 24.1 |
| 2020 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4581 | 26 | 92 | 2 | 356.3 | 12 | 22.3 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 3127 | 36 | 1206 | 7 | 463.0 | 1 | 30.9 |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 5109 | 33 | 250 | 1 | 426.5 | 2 | 26.7 |
| 2019 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 4902 | 30 | 277 | 3 | 412.8 | 3 | 25.8 |
| 2019 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 3852 | 26 | 413 | 7 | 389.5 | 4 | 26.0 |
| 2019 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 4110 | 31 | 342 | 3 | 383.7 | 5 | 24.0 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 3722 | 20 | 544 | 4 | 350.5 | 6 | 21.9 |
| 2019 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4466 | 26 | 147 | 1 | 350.0 | 7 | 23.3 |
| 2019 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 3089 | 20 | 510 | 9 | 345.5 | 8 | 21.6 |
| 2019 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 4039 | 27 | 243 | 1 | 344.3 | 9 | 21.5 |
| 2019 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 4031 | 26 | 218 | 2 | 341.4 | 10 | 24.4 |
| 2019 | Jared Goff, LAR | 4638 | 22 | 40 | 2 | 335.9 | 11 | 21.0 |
| 2019 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4002 | 26 | 183 | 1 | 334.4 | 12 | 20.9 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 5097 | 50 | 272 | 2 | 496.1 | 1 | 31.0 |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 5129 | 34 | 98 | 3 | 429.2 | 2 | 26.8 |
| 2018 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4924 | 35 | 125 | 3 | 428.2 | 3 | 26.8 |
| 2018 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 4593 | 39 | 148 | 0 | 405.9 | 4 | 25.4 |
| 2018 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 4165 | 26 | 551 | 5 | 397.4 | 5 | 24.8 |
| 2018 | Jared Goff, LAR | 4688 | 32 | 108 | 2 | 397.2 | 6 | 24.8 |
| 2018 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4442 | 25 | 269 | 2 | 367.0 | 7 | 22.9 |
| 2018 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 4298 | 30 | 123 | 1 | 360.1 | 8 | 22.5 |
| 2018 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 3992 | 32 | 22 | 4 | 356.9 | 9 | 23.8 |
| 2018 | Philip Rivers, LAC | 4308 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 354.1 | 10 | 22.1 |
| 2018 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 3885 | 22 | 305 | 6 | 352.8 | 11 | 22.0 |
| 2018 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 3448 | 35 | 376 | 0 | 351.9 | 12 | 22.0 |
Again, we don't know for sure going into each season who the No. 1 quarterback will be. But it's not surprising to see it was Allen twice and Patrick Mahomes twice, with Lamar Jackson also sneaking in one year. Nor do we know who the No. 12 quarterback will be (few ranked Daniel Jones there last year). But this is the gap in each of the last five years between the 1st-best and 12th-best quarterbacks for the full season.
Three times it was 8 points per week, once it was 9 points per week, and once it was 10 points per week. So you can look at that and at least say, landing the 12th-best quarterback in a fantasy league is a pretty significant weekly disadvantage compared to the guys who have the top ones.
As far as getting the No. 1 overall quarterback (versus getting the No. 4 or 5), that seems to be a year-by-year proposition. The Lamar Jackson year (2019), and the Patrick Mahomes 50-TD year (2018), those guys averaged 4-4.5 points per game more than the 2nd guy. But in the other three years, the 2-4 quarterbacks were within a couple of points of the No. 1, and in one of those (2020) even the No. 6 guy was within 2 points of the best of the quarterbacks.
In any case, I think you can argue for both sides. It's an edge to select the top 1 or 2 quarterbacks, especially when we have a pretty good idea who those players will probably be (I don't think many drafted Hurts as that player last year, but they certainly drafted Allen and Mahomes up there). And if you wait to be one of the last teams to select a quarterback, maybe you'll hit on the breakout star; the Hurts or perhaps Lamar back in 2019. But if you actually wind up with the 10th-12th best quarterback, you'll be facing a significant weekly disadvantage.