In a typical year, some lightly regarded rookie quarterback will start at least a month or so, and that seems to be where we’re headed again. Seven different rookies drafted outside the third round are in contention to open the season as backups for NFL teams.
Expectations are deservedly modest with just players, but we usually see some of them at the controls for a chunk of the season. In the 32-team era, 21 quarterbacks selected in the third round or later have started at least 5 games in their rookie season. That includes four who weren’t even drafted.
| LIGHTLY REGARDED ROOKIE QBs STARTING 5-PLUS GAMES | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (Rd) | St | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
| 2002 | Chad Hutchinson, Dall. (FA) | 9 | 127 | 250 | 1555 | 7 | 8 |
| 2004 | Craig Krenzel, Chi. (5) | 5 | 59 | 127 | 718 | 3 | 6 |
| 2005 | Kyle Orton, Chi. (4) | 15 | 190 | 368 | 1869 | 9 | 13 |
| 2005 | Charlie Frye, Cle. (3) | 5 | 98 | 164 | 1002 | 4 | 5 |
| 2006 | Bruce Gradkowski, T.B. (6) | 11 | 177 | 328 | 1661 | 9 | 9 |
| 2007 | Trent Edwards, Buff. (3) | 9 | 151 | 269 | 1630 | 7 | 8 |
| 2010 | Colt McCoy, Cle. (3) | 8 | 135 | 222 | 1576 | 6 | 9 |
| 2011 | T.J. Yates, Hou. (5) | 5 | 82 | 134 | 949 | 3 | 3 |
| 2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. (3) | 16 | 252 | 393 | 3118 | 26 | 10 |
| 2012 | Nick Foles, Phil. (3) | 6 | 161 | 265 | 1699 | 6 | 5 |
| 2013 | Matt McGloin, Oak. (FA) | 6 | 118 | 211 | 1547 | 8 | 8 |
| 2013 | Mike Glennon, T.B. (3) | 13 | 247 | 416 | 2608 | 19 | 9 |
| 2014 | Zach Mettenberger, Ten. (6) | 6 | 107 | 179 | 1412 | 8 | 7 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. (4) | 16 | 311 | 459 | 3667 | 23 | 4 |
| 2016 | Cody Kessler, Cle. (3) | 8 | 128 | 195 | 1380 | 6 | 2 |
| 2017 | C.J. Beathard, S.F. (3) | 5 | 123 | 224 | 1430 | 4 | 6 |
| 2019 | Devlin Hodges, Pitt. (FA) | 6 | 100 | 160 | 1063 | 5 | 8 |
| 2019 | David Blough, Det. (FA) | 5 | 94 | 174 | 984 | 4 | 6 |
| 2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. (6) | 12 | 285 | 470 | 3271 | 21 | 6 |
| 2021 | Davis Mills, Hou. (3) | 11 | 263 | 394 | 2664 | 16 | 10 |
| 2022 | Brock Purdy, S.F. (7) | 5 | 114 | 170 | 1374 | 13 | 4 |
Preseason play suggests that we’ve got an above-average group of these kind of quarterbacks, including nine that have better passer ratings than any of the quarterbacks chosen in the first round. (Both Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud threw interceptions on their first preseason possessions.)
Aidan O’Connell leads the way. He’s been awfully in impressive in his two games, driving the Raiders up and down the field. He’s passed for 304 yards and 3 TDs, with the ball coming out accurate and on time. He’s been in command, and it’s looking like he’ll be beating Brian Hoyer, and starter Jimmy Garoppolo has long had problems staying healthy. O’Connell has played well enough that it’s reasonable to wonder how much that offense would decline if he were thrust into action.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (pictured) is the other rookie with a passer rating over 100. He’s been able to consistently extend plays with his mobility. He has not, however, been quite as impressive as O’Connell; he had a couple of throws at Philadelphia that easily could have been intercepted. The Browns might stick with more experienced Joshua Dobbs as their backup.
Tyson Bagent, who wasn’t even drafted, has been far more impressive than P.J. Walker in Chicago. The Bears might decide to go with him as their backup behind Justin Fields.
In Philadelphia, sixth-rounder Tanner McKee looks a lot better than Marcus Mariota, with a lot more ability (and willingness) to drive the ball downfield. Mariota is more experienced and has a fully guaranteed $5 million contract, which probably will cause the Eagles to look the other way and stick with him.
Other quarterbacks selected outside the first 100 picks who’ll likely be backups on opening day include Stetson Bennett (Rams), Clayton Tune (Cardinals) and Sean Clifford (Packers).
| ROOKIE PASSING STATS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (round) | Comp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sack | Rating |
| Aidan O'Connell, L.V. (4) | 26 | 36 | 304 | 3 | 0 | 1/6 | 125.2 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cle. (5) | 30 | 46 | 348 | 2 | 0 | 1/1 | 102.4 |
| Tyson Bagent, Chi. (FA) | 13 | 15 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 2/11 | 98.1 |
| Tanner McKee, Phi. (6) | 20 | 38 | 295 | 1 | 0 | 4/18 | 87.1 |
| Tommy DeVito, NYG (FA) | 24 | 35 | 243 | 1 | 1 | 5/27 | 85.8 |
| Sean Clifford, G.B. (5) | 33 | 45 | 345 | 1 | 2 | 0/0 | 84.0 |
| Max Duggan, LAC (7) | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 3/23 | 84.0 |
| Jake Haener, N.O. (4) | 21 | 34 | 223 | 1 | 1 | 0/0 | 78.4 |
| Stetson Bennett, LAR (4) | 32 | 53 | 333 | 1 | 1 | 3/36 | 77.0 |
| Bryce Young, Car. (1) | 7 | 12 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 2/16 | 70.1 |
| Clayton Tune, Ari. (4) | 25 | 47 | 268 | 1 | 1 | 3/19 | 68.4 |
| Jaren Hall, Min. (5) | 10 | 21 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3/18 | 58.8 |
| Will Levis, Ten. (2) | 9 | 14 | 85 | 0 | 1 | 4/15 | 51.2 |
| C.J. Stroud, Hou. (1) | 9 | 16 | 73 | 0 | 1 | 1/15 | 41.9 |
| Anthony Richardson, Ind. (1) | 7 | 12 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 0/0 | 39.2 |
| Hendon Hooker, Det. (3) | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
—Ian Allan