I like the look of what’s going on in Pittsburgh. Their first-unit offense has been on the field for three possessions in the preseason, and it’s scored touchdowns on all of them.

Granted the Steelers finished last year with a league-12 TD passes, 3 fewer than every other team. But I’m thinking they might double that total. If they weren’t in tough division in a tough conference, I would call them a sure playoff team.

I like the talent. Kenny Pickett improved at the end of last year, going 6-1 in his last seven full games. He’s ready to do more. And he’s got an excellent cast of pass catchers to work with, including Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth.

That 12 touchdown pass number is a little intimidating, of course, but the fact is that teams are always changing. Below see the list of other teams in the 32-team era that have thrown 12 or fewer touchdown passes. Almost half (14 of 32) finished with at least 10 more touchdown passes the next year.

Most fantasy leagues also include yards, so I’ve included those in the chart below. And using the yards and touchdowns and assuming standard scoring, 9 of those 32 previous seemingly hapless offenses the next season finished with above-average passing numbers. (Another 17 again ranked in the bottom 10 in passing, but I don’t think any of them were trotting out a receiver tandem on par with Pickens-Johnson.)

The Steelers open the season as a 2.5-point underdog against San Francisco, but I’m not sure that point spread shouldn’t be reversed. They look to me like a team that’s ready to play. Pittsburgh has won its last three openers, including surprising upsets on the road against Buffalo and Cincinnati.

I expect I’ll be selecting some Steelers on all of my fantasy teams this year.

In the chart below, teams appear in chronological order. The “before” column shows the number of touchdown passes in the previous season.

OFFENSES WITH 12 OR FEWER TD PASSES
YearTeamBeforeYardsTDRk
2003Houston11177.61428
2004• Oakland9251.22411
2004• Buffalo11189.52124
2004Chicago12165.1932
2005• NY Giants12235.1247
2005Chicago9137.61131
2006• Chicago11215.42413
2006NY Jets11209.51719
2006San Francisco8180.61629
2007• Oakland7180.81728
2008Miami12235.12012
2008• Minnesota12201.12218
2008Buffalo12206.41424
2008Tennessee9181.41329
2009• Cincinnati11195.92122
2009St. Louis11185.61229
2009Cleveland11140.91132
2010NY Jets12213.82025
2010St. Louis12219.51826
2010Oakland10216.91827
2010Cleveland11200.21330
2011• Carolina9255.62112
2011• Arizona10247.12115
2012• St. Louis9236.42219
2012Jacksonville12234.12021
2013• Arizona11268.22414
2013• Kansas City8222.62422
2015Cleveland12259.82024
2016St. Louis11207.11432
2021• New England12241.12414
2021NY Giants12203.71532
2022• Jacksonville12244.02513
2023Pittsburgh12???

—Ian Allan