So you’ve been drafting your regular fantasy teams and you’re getting ready to try a guillotine league. How might the overall draft board change?
Maybe you’re familiar with where certain players are going in the drafts, feeling as if you’ve got a leg up on them. Or perhaps you go into the draft room early, and mark players you see as values. Mock drafting, doing some real drafts, and checking into the platform’s draft room prior to your draft are highly encouraged.
While they do help you get a leg up in the race, I’m trying to put you in a car, slam on the gas, and fly past all the other competitors.
Guillotine Leagues ADP
I decided to look at average draft positions (ADP) on other platforms such as ESPN, Sleeper, NFL, and RTsports versus the numbers I’m seeing on GuillotineLeagues.com to not only provide an idea of what to expect in your guillotine league drafts but also not get your hopes up that you can wait on drafting a certain player because based on ADP, they would fall to you.
It should be noted that the ADP data from the other platforms is from the redraft format. While I’ll be cross-referencing both redraft and guillotine league formats, there are different strategies and mindsets between the two. In redraft, you need to come in first to win, while in a guillotine league, you just need to not come in last. Nevertheless, I find the ADP comparison helpful so that I can come to the draft fully prepared.
In the chart below, I’m listing only players who are being drafted five spots or later than on other sites. While most are considered values, I also highlighted (with a black dot) my personal favorites.
| PLAYERS FALLING IN GUILLOTINE DRAFTS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | Gui ADP | Reg ADP |
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 8 |
| Davante Adams | 18 | 13 |
| Josh Jacobs | 26 | 20 |
| Najee Harris | 33 | 28 |
| DK Metcalf | 37 | 32 |
| • Joe Mixon | 41 | 34 |
| • Miles Sanders | 53 | 48 |
| Deandre Hopkins | 56 | 50 |
| Terry McLaurin | 58 | 51 |
| Darren Waller | 61 | 54 |
| Kyle Pitts | 70 | 62 |
| Javonte Williams | 80 | 73 |
| Deshaun Watson | 85 | 74 |
Thoughts on undervalued players
I understand Jacob’s ADP being suppressed due to his potential of holding out. I personally don’t think that he does.
Najee Harris has a nice strength of schedule, but he does face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, so I’m guessing people are avoiding him to not risk getting chopped early.
Joe Mixon (pictured) seems to have the backfield on a great offense all to himself with the departure of Samaje Perine, who played on a lot of third downs. Given GuillotineLeagues.com is PPR, Mixon’s value is enhanced.
Again, given the PPR format, Sanders should be reliable enough to have a solid floor to keep you from getting chopped. I’d be comfortable with Sanders or Mixon as my RB1.
If you asked five people “who will be the target leader for the Giants?” you’d probably get five different answers. With that uncertainty and Waller’s athleticism, he could be a smash play in guillotine league formats.
Eleven months removed from when he tore his ACL in the 2022 season, Javonte Williams should start Week 1. He’s getting some limited preseason action now, with the expectation he’ll share time with Samaje Perine.
Deshaun Watson’s off-the-field issues will likely keep his ADP suppressed, perhaps his whole career. I totally understand if you don’t want to draft him. I chalk up last year’s horrific way to end a season due to being rusty and not fully with the team. The good news is that he can still run, so he hasn’t lost a step. And there is no reason to believe he has lost any arm talent. Prior to last year, the last time we saw him on the field, he was a top-5 quarterback three straight years.
Players Being Drafted Earlier than Expected
This list includes players who are being drafted sooner at guillotineleagues.com than other platforms. If you want to select these players, you may have to pull the trigger a little earlier.
| PLAYERS GOING EARLIER IN GUILLOTINE | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | Gui ADP | Reg ADP |
| J.K. Dobbins | 55 | 63 |
| Christian Kirk | 58 | 76 |
| Alexander Mattison | 58 | 66 |
| Drake London | 60 | 68 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 66 | 74 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 67 | 74 |
| Michael Pittman | 71 | 81 |
| • David Montgomery | 77 | 87 |
| Jordan Addison | 80 | 96 |
| Kirk Cousins | 82 | 101 |
| Marquise Brown | 83 | 88 |
| • Jahan Dotson | 89 | 96 |
| Gabe Davis | 91 | 106 |
| Brian Robinson | 94 | 110 |
| David Njoku | 86 | 99 |
Thoughts on overvalued players
Dobbins, Mattison, and Pacheco are all likely inflated because the teams that are drafting them, missed out on running backs early, thus forcing their hand to get one sooner, before the RB1s for a particular team are all gone. Dobbins and Pacheco aren’t expected to catch a ton of passes, so you’re really just banking on TDs and rushing volume.
Christian Kirk shouldn’t be going extremely late, so reaching for him makes sense.
London, Aiyuk, and Pittman are all expected to be the target leaders on their respective teams. Teams are likely drafting them earlier to just get that target share security.
Montgomery is a screaming value. If you think you can wait on drafting him until your next pick, you probably can’t. (In the guillotine format, with 18 teams drafting, it’s harder to let a player slip down a round.)
Based on player props, 2021’s Biletnikoff award winner, Jordan Addison, is expected to lead all the rookies in receiving yards.
Cousins is as safe as they come in guillotine leagues, so his earlier ADP makes a ton of sense.
Hollywood Brown is projected to be the target and yardage leader for what looks like one of the worst offenses in 2023.
With Terry McLaurin going down to a turf toe injury, the path for Dotson to lead the Commanders seems more likely than it did a week ago.
Davis is always inflated in ADP because of his big-play ability matched with Josh Allen’s talent.
Brian Robinson seems like a good safety-net player with a low ceiling, much like Cousins.
Watson was suppressed in ADP, but yet all of his pass catching weapons are being drafted earlier than expected. This tells me that people are out on Watson, but still think he’s talented.
—Colt Williams
Williams is working towards a degree in economics and statistics at Sonoma State. A United States Air Force veteran, he’s been playing fantasy football since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @_ColtWilliams