Trey Lance has been traded from the 49ers to the Cowboys, and I like the move for both franchises. San Francisco had to move on from their draft bust/No. 3 quarterback, while Dallas gives up only a fourth-round pick (how often do you land a Dak Prescott with that kind of selection?) for a potential backup with upside. Win-win.
Football-wise, perhaps Lance will benefit from backing up a dual-threat type quarterback, fitting better into Dallas' offense than San Francisco's. More importantly, though, he should benefit from being free of the expectations with the 49ers, having not only been the No. 3 overall pick, but having cost San Francisco two additional first-round picks just to move up and draft him. San Francisco fell in love with him and that's their mistake, but he would have had to be pretty amazing to live up to that price. A fresh start is good for everyone.
On the other hand...
Very seldom do these fresh starts work out. I couldn't really find any recent examples of it with similarly regarded prospects.
Digging into the files, I found 10 other examples of quarterbacks selected with top-10 picks this century who washed out with their original team in fewer than five years. All of their names are familiar, since they carried high expectations but failed to achieve them. A couple of those guys are still playing (including the guy who made Lance expendable this preseason, Sam Darnold) and can perhaps still turn things around, but the overall track record isn't good.
The most successful (to use the term very loosely) of these second-chance quarterbacks was Joey Harrington. He finished 26th at the position (reminder: there are only 32 NFL teams) in seasons for Miami and Atlanta. Darnold and Baker Mayfield are guys who could maybe still put together relevant seasons for other franchises. But guys becoming solid starters elsewhere after doing nothing at their original homes just hasn't happened.
Table shows best ensuing seasons from those prior draft busts. Two names I excluded were JaMarcus Russell and Jake Locker, since they didn't actually play for another team after flopping with the one that drafted them.
| SECOND-CHANCE QUARTERBACKS (TOP-10 PICKS), 2000-PRESENT | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Cmp | Att | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | Rk |
| 2006 | Joey Harrington, Mia. | 11 | 223 | 388 | 2236 | 12 | 15 | 24 | 0 | 26 |
| 2007 | Joey Harrington, Atl. | 12 | 215 | 348 | 2215 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 26 |
| 2021 | Sam Darnold, Car. | 12 | 243 | 406 | 2527 | 9 | 13 | 222 | 5 | 27 |
| 2022 | Baker Mayfield, 2TM | 12 | 201 | 335 | 2163 | 10 | 8 | 89 | 1 | 29 |
| 2015 | Blaine Gabbert, S.F. | 8 | 178 | 282 | 2031 | 10 | 7 | 185 | 1 | 29 |
| 2016 | Blaine Gabbert, S.F. | 6 | 91 | 160 | 925 | 5 | 6 | 173 | 2 | 34 |
| 2022 | Sam Darnold, Car. | 6 | 82 | 140 | 1143 | 7 | 3 | 106 | 2 | 35 |
| 2022 | Mitchell Trubisky, Pitt. | 7 | 117 | 180 | 1252 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 2 | 37 |
| 2017 | Blaine Gabbert, Ariz. | 5 | 95 | 171 | 1086 | 6 | 6 | 82 | 0 | 38 |
| 2001 | Ryan Leaf, Dall. | 4 | 45 | 88 | 494 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 0 | 46 |
| 2019 | Josh Rosen, Mia. | 6 | 58 | 109 | 567 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 49 |
| 2012 | Matt Leinart, Oak. | 2 | 16 | 33 | 115 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| 2011 | Matt Leinart, Hou. | 2 | 10 | 13 | 57 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 63 |
| 2021 | Mitchell Trubisky, Buff. | 6 | 6 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 63 |
Maybe Lance gets a chance to start some games in Dallas (Dak Prescott has missed time due to injury), but expectations should be modest. That applies to Mayfield and Darnold, too.
--Andy Richardson