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Love the schedule

Green Bay set up for early success

The way the schedule is stacked, I like Aaron Rodgers’ old offense a lot more than his new one. The Packers have a much easier schedule than the Jets.

The season-long numbers are printed on page 169 of the magazine. Green Bay’s opponents project to allow the most touchdowns in the league (if they play just like they did last year), while the Jets have a bottom-10 schedule.

If we’re going off wins and losses, Green Bay has a top-10 schedule, while the Jets are in the bottom 10 (their opponents last year combined to win 17 more games than the Packers’).

It’s particularly sticky early in the year. The Jets don’t have an easy game in September or October, opening with the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, Kansas City, Broncos, Eagles and at the Giants. Denver is probably the softest opponent in there, and it might have a solid defense.

I like that Rodgers seems happy and engaged – revitalized. Reminds me of some other quarterbacks who’ve excelled late in their careers with new teams (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Brett Favre). But he’ll be working behind an iffy offensive line. “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth,” as Mike Tyson says.

With Jordan Love and the Packers, on the other hand, everything is queued up for them to build some momentum with some early wins and touchdowns. Their first eight are against the Bears, Falcons, Saints, Lions, Raiders, Broncos, Vikings and Rams.

If we look at just the first six games for each team, the Packers will be seeing defenses that allowed an average of 23.5 points per game last year, most in the league. The Jets are down at next-to-last, at over 3 fewer points per game.

The Packers currently are currently listing at an over-under of 7.5 wins. That’s a game behind the Vikings, a game and half below the Lions, and the same as the Bears. It’s a total that seems low to me.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (G 1-6)
TeamPoints
Green Bay23.5
Tampa Bay23.5
Carolina23.4
Seattle23.0
Kansas City23.0
Jacksonville22.9
LA Chargers22.7
Denver22.6
Washington22.6
Minnesota22.5
Cincinnati22.4
Atlanta22.4
Baltimore22.3
San Francisco22.3
Detroit22.1
LA Rams22.0
New Orleans21.9
Chicago21.8
Buffalo21.5
Pittsburgh21.5
Tennessee21.5
Indianapolis21.4
Philadelphia21.3
NY Giants21.3
Houston21.3
New England21.2
Dallas21.0
Miami21.0
Las Vegas20.7
Cleveland20.3
NY Jets20.2
Arizona20.2

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index