Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Luke Musgrave's rising value. The diminishing value of home-field advantage. Skipping the franchise running backs in an auction. And more.
Question 1
With Doubs and Watson not practicing today with hamstring injuries, let's assume they are listed by the team as doubtful or out. I know Reed would get a bump, but would you consider starting Musgrave as a flex? I have Waller as my TE. I have Kupp on my team so my WR's for this week according to the rankings would be Dotson and Cooks. My Flex players would be Akers and McKinnon.
Brian Boyd (Maple Grove, MN)
Clever idea on Musgrave. I don’t think I could get him above Dotson or Cooks, but he would be busier. Musgrave went undrafted in my own league last year (12 teams picking 192 players). I’ve got Ferguson and Freiermuth as my two tight ends, but I am mulling whether to release one of my many second-string running backs (Chuba, Kelley or Chandler) to make room for Musgrave.
Question 2
When it comes to setting your roster each week, and two players are close in weekly ratings, I usually favor the player who is on a "home" team. You agree? And do you have any data to back up either way?
JEFF POWERS (Coral Springs, FL)
Home-field advantage doesn’t seem to mean quite as much as it used to. Road teams actually finished with a winning record in 2020 (an NFL first). That was the COVID year, with smaller crowds perhaps a factor, but road teams also won over 48 percent of their games in the two surrounding seasons. In only one other season since the merger have road teams won more than 47 percent of their games (1972).
| W-L RECORDS OF TEAMS ON THE ROAD | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | W | L | T | Pct. |
| 2002 | 107 | 148 | 1 | .420 |
| 2003 | 99 | 157 | 0 | .387 |
| 2004 | 111 | 145 | 0 | .434 |
| 2005 | 105 | 151 | 0 | .410 |
| 2006 | 120 | 136 | 0 | .469 |
| 2007 | 109 | 147 | 0 | .426 |
| 2008 | 109 | 146 | 1 | .428 |
| 2009 | 110 | 146 | 0 | .430 |
| 2010 | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
| 2011 | 111 | 145 | 0 | .434 |
| 2012 | 109 | 146 | 1 | .428 |
| 2013 | 102 | 153 | 1 | .400 |
| 2014 | 110 | 145 | 1 | .432 |
| 2015 | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
| 2016 | 107 | 147 | 2 | .422 |
| 2017 | 111 | 145 | 0 | .434 |
| 2018 | 101 | 153 | 2 | .398 |
| 2019 | 123 | 132 | 1 | .482 |
| 2020 | 128 | 127 | 1 | .502 |
| 2021 | 131 | 140 | 1 | .483 |
| 2022 | 118 | 151 | 2 | .439 |
Question 3
I am fresh off of a 2QB league auction. Using your recommended draft strategies I got $283 of "value" in a $200 auction. It was interesting. Upper-end RBs, which FI had as a somewhat relatively middling position (other than McCaffrey and Ekeler) went for a lot ($30-50) for the top 9; whereby your system had them in the $20s. So I got Pierce, Montgomery, Pacheo and Taylor instead at reasonable prices. I picked up Burrow, Herbert, Watson and Ridder as my QBs (my strongest position IMO). After the smoke cleared, I was thinking of offering Watson for Chubb to another guy who loaded up on RB's (Henry, Chubb, and Barkley). However his QB's stink (Jones & Dobbs). What do you think of the trade idea?
Bryce Erickson (Dallas, TX)
Looks like you crushed it. Congrats. I wouldn’t be hurrying to make any trades. You’ll be fine with the running backs you have. That Pierce-Montgomery-Pacheco trio will hold down the fort for you, and Taylor may show up in about a month to be your top guy. If and when you decide to Watson, it should be only if it helps your team – if it moves that $283 number even higher.
Question 4
I drafted Kenneth Walker in the third round of one league and the last pick of the second round of another. I am being called an idiot by some of my league mates. In drafting him in the second round, I admittedly left Mixon and Etienne on the board, but neither of those players has ever excited me. I know very little about Walker, except for what he did last year and where you rank him this year, among the top 30 overall players in PPR. Was I being a little too optimistic here?
Paul Owers (Boynton Beach, FL)
I sure like that he’s playing four games against the Rams and Cardinals. I think you’ll do just fine with Walker.
Question 5
I'm in a league with multiple flex positions and I use a strategy where I load up on RBs to reduce the floor of my week-to-week scoring totals, but I typically miss out on WRs. I'm thinking of trading Diontae Johnson and Damien Harris for Pacheco and CEH (locking up the KC running game) but am wondering if I lose out on some upside if Johnson breaks out this year. I have noticed that as an Index subscriber, I'm more bullish than most on Pacheco. My other receivers are Diggs, Moore, Cooks, and MVS.
Sherif Elmazi (Hong Kong)
I like the KC running back combo a lot more than Johnson-Harris. Harris is a nominal stab in the dark; you could wind up releasing him before October. I’d make the deal, and I would chop Valdes-Scantling, who’s never going to be anything more than a sporadic deep threat. I would rather have Puka Nacua, with some chance the rookie is surprisingly decent while Kupp is on the shelf.
Question 6
Looooong time subscriber (mid-90’s!). Half point PPR. Key players in a 14 team league are Herbert, Najee, Mattison, Kirk, Watson, Kelce, London, Dillon. Brandin Cooks on the bench as another flex option. Would you trade Mattison and Cooks for Jacobs? Depth is hard to come by in a 14 team league but is the upgrade from Mattison to Jacobs enough to offset giving up Cooks. I feel Mattison could be great this year but is Jacobs gonna be THE guy again?
Rich Wiegard (Frisco, TX)
It would be nice to get out of having to worry about whether Mattison is good enough. But at the same time, depth is good. Christian Watson didn’t practice on Wednesday, so I would imagine Cooks might be starting for you in Week 1.
Question 7
How on earth could you leave the Raiders' Jimmy G off your rankings? (I'm a long-time subscriber and Raiders' homer.)
Pete Smith (Priest River, ID)
He is my No. 25 quarterback for Week 1. I’ve got him ahead of a few guys.
Question 8
Reading the earlier post regarding McKinnon's use in the playoffs, I quickly grabbed for my FFI magazine and noticed the playoff stats are no longer in the magazine. Not necessarily advocating you put it back given the 1,000,000 items already present and you are making a magazine not a catalog. I did go back in my inventory of FFI magazines and noticed you dropped in the 2020 version. Given it took me 3 years to notice, again not necessarily advocating you put it back. That said, I would use it if back in there. I knew it was there from previous "through the years' references.
Ron Knott (Renton, WA)
I also liked having those in there. But when it came down to how to use that space (whether to print playoff boxscores or use it for something else) they came up short. There different spots on the web where playoff boxscores can be viewed, and in an easier-to-digest format. Pro-football-reference.com is set up really well. Some of the stat charts in the back of the magazine, on the other hand, aren’t available elsewhere.
Question 9
Week 1 and already, I am torn. Do I play Toney against the Lions or do you think Dotson will drive home some scores?
Danny Weisberg (Thousand Oaks, CA)
Toney is a talent, but I worry about KC getting too many pass catchers involved.