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Guillotine Leagues

Week 7 FAAB report

Players to target on the Guillotine waiver wire

Injuries are my least favorite part of football. It just seems that week after week, there are a plethora of injuries to discuss and go over. With the bye-apocalypse and a number of injuries to star players, I’m here to help you make the best waiver wire bid on the most chopped players going into Week 7.

Big-Name Players Chopped from Week 6:

Deebo Samuel (bid 8 percent)
If you take away last week when he got injured and his “decoy” game in Week 4, Deebo has a 26 percent target share and the most yards and receptions among his teammates, which is great. He’s currently considered day-to-day and plays on Monday Night Football, so you need to have pivot options, which can be difficult in a guillotine league. Deebo has been great when healthy, but he’s currently not healthy, so I’d be cautious about bidding too much on Deebo. His next two matchups, against the Vikings and Bengals, are favorable.

Davante Adams (bid 15 percent)
Adams’ recent two games haven’t been very Adams-like. Adams has 6 receptions on just 9 targets in two games. I will say that the Patriots and Packers are not ideal matchups for pass catchers. Adams is also nursing a shoulder injury. His next stretch of games are nice, and even if it’s Brian Hoyer at quarterback while Jimmy Garoppolo recovers from his back injury, he should deliver Adams the ball often. If it’s the rookie Aidan O’Connell, I'd worry a bit more. His next three matchups are favorable.

David Montgomery (bid 4 percent)
Montgomery has been incredible so far this season. Unfortunately, he sustained a rib injury on Sunday and will be out for “a little bit”, according to Dan Campbell. With that knowledge and the Lions’ bye in Week 9, I’d expect him to miss the next three weeks. If you need him before then, I’d spend your budget elsewhere. If you can make it three weeks without him, his schedule once he gets back is favorable to running backs.

George Kittle (bid 6 percent)
I’m not a fan of spending a lot of my budget on tight ends that aren’t Travis Kelce. They are just so hit-or-miss. That being said, Kittle has looked very good in games in which Deebo has missed time. It’s a small sample size, but it is alarming that the games that Deebo missed or was a decoy this year haven’t been good. There are few game-breaking tight ends that can single-handedly win you your week, so if you’re into that, Kittle is for you. Personally, I want someone who is a little more consistent with getting receptions. Kittle hasn’t missed a game and is currently 20th in tight end receptions on the season. He does have two great matchups coming up before his bye.

Calvin Ridley (bid 7 percent)
Ridley’s issue is that the Jaguars have been passing the ball around to Christian Kirk and Evan Engram too. Ridley currently sits at a 20 percent target share; Kirk and Engram are at 22 percent and 19 percent, respectively. Much like the Eagles’ receiving room, there are three stars to try and feed the ball to. Everyone can’t eat. With his inconsistencies, I recommend not spending too much of your budget here. His next two matchups aren’t very favorable.

DeAndre Hopkins (bid 1 percent)
The Titans are going into their bye, which gives Ryan Tannehill time to recover from his ankle injury. He’ll likely still be out once they return from their bye, which means it’s either Malik Willis, who I think we’ve seen enough of, or Will Levis, in his first career start. Hopkins hasn’t been great this season, and with the revolving quarterback situation, I’m not sure if it’s getting better.

Josh Allen (bid 16 percent)
Typically, I’m not a fan of paying the large price tags for quarterbacks. However, it’s Josh Allen, the No. 1 quarterback on the season. His elite passing and rushing combination allows him to be foundational for your guillotine league team. He’s considered day-to-day, so there is a slight risk, but I’m all in. Outside of his Week 13 bye, he’s locked into your starting lineup as a top-three option.

Puka Nacua (bid 12 percent)
If you just looked at the fantasy finish for Puka, you’d say he had a bad week. However, the peripherals still look great. Over the last two weeks, since Cooper Kupp has returned, Puka still has a 29 percent target share, which is elite. Stafford barely missed Puka in the end zone in Week 6. If he caught that, we’re not talking about him as someone who was chopped. He only has one favorable matchup out of the next three, but with his usage, you should be starting him each week.

DJ Moore (bid 10 percent)
We know DJ Moore is very good, but it’s more about the quarterback woes in Chicago that have me hesitant about spending a ton of my budget on Moore. Moore lost Justin Fields in Week 6, but Fields’ rookie replacement, Tyson Bagent, in his first game, still managed to pass the ball to Moore. In the first half, when Fields was at quarterback, Moore had only one target. In the second half, when Bagent came in, Moore got seven targets. Bagent may suit up against the Raiders, who are middle of the pack against opposing quarterbacks. While it’s not ideal, it could be worse, and it’s likely temporary.

Team Assumptions:
The bid amounts are subject to how your team is doing. If you are cruising along just fine, your team is a top-half team, and you’ve sustained minimal injuries, congratulations. The bids I recommend should be lowered by roughly 5-8 percent. If your team was nearly chopped this week (like mine), you’re dealing with serious injuries, or you simply won’t get any points out of the player you’ve got to start, consider going above these recommended bids by 5-8 percent. If you’re in the middle of the pack, feel free to bid as recommended. For a more detailed and tailored recommendation amount, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. I do a guillotine league post every Tuesday morning. You show me your team and which players are available, and I recommend amounts to bid.

—Colt Williams

Williams is working towards a degree in economics and statistics at Sonoma State. A United States Air Force veteran, he’s been playing fantasy football since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @_ColtWilliams

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