At 3-3, the Bengals are in sole possession of last place in the AFC North, and I don’t think they’re going to be able to pull things together. They’ve got numerous issues to resolve, and they’re also going to be fighting the uphill climb of a difficult schedule.
Based on current win-loss records, Cincinnati has the most difficult remaining schedule in the league. Its final 11 games are against teams that are a combined 46-27. That includes games at San Francisco, Baltimore, Jacksonville and Kansas City, as well as another game against Cleveland. (Not to imply that the two remaining games against the Steelers and a game against Buffalo are cupcakes, either.)
If you’re looking for borderline teams that might be able to ride easier schedules to playoff berths, consider instead the Falcons and Texans.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 8-18) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
Atlanta | 23 | 43 | .348 |
Detroit | 26 | 41 | .388 |
Houston | 28 | 42 | .400 |
Indianapolis | 27 | 37 | .422 |
New Orleans | 29 | 39 | .426 |
Tampa Bay | 31 | 41 | .431 |
Chicago | 29 | 37 | .439 |
Green Bay | 33 | 40 | .452 |
Minnesota | 31 | 36 | .463 |
Kansas City | 32 | 35 | .478 |
Pittsburgh | 34 | 37 | .479 |
Carolina | 34 | 37 | .479 |
LA Chargers | 36 | 39 | .480 |
Cleveland | 35 | 37 | .486 |
NY Jets | 37 | 37 | .500 |
LA Rams | 33 | 33 | .500 |
Jacksonville | 31 | 31 | .500 |
New England | 34 | 33 | .507 |
Denver | 34 | 32 | .515 |
NY Giants | 35 | 32 | .522 |
Philadelphia | 35 | 32 | .522 |
Miami | 35 | 31 | .530 |
Las Vegas | 37 | 31 | .544 |
Dallas | 41 | 34 | .547 |
Tennessee | 39 | 32 | .549 |
Baltimore | 36 | 29 | .554 |
Buffalo | 36 | 29 | .554 |
San Francisco | 37 | 29 | .561 |
Seattle | 42 | 31 | .575 |
Washington | 38 | 28 | .576 |
Arizona | 40 | 26 | .606 |
Cincinnati | 46 | 27 | .630 |
If we consider points rather than wins – looking at the quality of defenses – things still don’t look good for Cincinnati.
If we take the average points allowed by each defense, then look at the next six games for each team (Weeks 8-13 for some, and Weeks 8-14 for others), Cincinnati again finishes with the toughest degree of difficulty, with their next six against teams currently averaging (collectively) about 18 points per game.
The Eagles also have a difficult upcoming schedule, but they’ve at least shown some ability to overcome that kind of obstacle.
If you’re looking for a team with a friendly schedule coming up, go instead with the Patriots, Saints or Texans. With New England and New Orleans, of course, they’ve had offensive issues (though the Patriots flashed some on Sunday). The Texans, meanwhile, are a team where I’m buying shares.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (next 6 G) | |
---|---|
Team | Avg |
New England | 25.5 |
New Orleans | 24.6 |
Houston | 24.6 |
Dallas | 23.8 |
Detroit | 23.8 |
Minnesota | 23.3 |
Chicago | 23.3 |
Kansas City | 23.3 |
Tennessee | 22.8 |
NY Jets | 22.7 |
NY Giants | 22.3 |
Washington | 22.2 |
Indianapolis | 22.1 |
Baltimore | 22.0 |
Cleveland | 22.0 |
Miami | 21.6 |
Las Vegas | 21.6 |
LA Chargers | 21.6 |
Tampa Bay | 21.5 |
Pittsburgh | 21.4 |
Carolina | 21.1 |
Green Bay | 20.9 |
Buffalo | 20.7 |
Atlanta | 20.4 |
San Francisco | 19.8 |
Denver | 19.6 |
LA Rams | 19.6 |
Jacksonville | 19.2 |
Seattle | 18.8 |
Arizona | 18.7 |
Philadelphia | 18.0 |
Cincinnati | 17.9 |
—Ian Allan