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Guillotine Leagues

Week 10 FAAB report

Players to target on the Guillotine waiver wire

I was trying to figure out whose performance in Week 9 I enjoyed more: the Vikings’ new quarterback Joshua Dobbs coming in and making his name known in Minneapolis for years to come, or rookie C.J. Stroud’s record-setting performance. Either way, it was a great week of football. Much like last week, some star-studded talent went on bye this week, so we’ll likely see some more great players lead the list again as they don’t have a fighting chance because they scored zero points during their bye. Now, let’s make the best waiver wire bids on the most chopped players going into Week 10.

Big-Name Players Chopped After Week 9:

Travis Kelce (bid 21 percent)
I heard there was a blank space in Taylor Swift’s seat as she wasn’t traveling to Germany to watch Travis play, so that should have been our first red flag of a bad game incoming. In a more serious manner, it’s Travis Kelce. It’s one down game. The Chiefs have a bye this week, but after that, he’s locked into your lineup for the rest of the season.

Justin Herbert (bid 5 percent)
Herbert isn’t a dual-threat quarterback, so his floor is pretty low, as we saw in Week 9 vs. an elite Jets’ secondary. That’ll likely be his worst game of the season, although he does play the Ravens in a couple of weeks. Outside that matchup, you can lock him in your lineup as he’s past his bye already and among quarterbacks who have also already had a bye, only Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, and Jared Goff have more pass attempts.

Kenneth Walker (bid 8 percent)
Having back-to-back bad weeks isn’t surprising given the matchups vs. the Browns and the Ravens. What is concerning is that Walker has been out-snapped by rookie Zach Charbonnet, the past two weeks. It would make sense if Charbonnet was getting more work, especially in the passing game, something Charbonnet is better at than Walker, but he wasn’t. While Walker is past his bye (always a plus), his remaining schedule is scary for running backs. He plays the Eagles, who are 1st against running backs, the Rams (13th), the 49ers twice (10th), the Cowboys (11th), and the Titans (15th). I’m checking the matchups from here on out before plugging Walker into my lineups.

Christian McCaffrey (bid 27 percent)
Arguably the best player in the league, CMC makes his debut on the most chopped list thanks to his kryptonite, the dreaded bye week. In half-point per reception leagues, he’s earning almost 9 points per game, just as a receiver. For context, that’s better than Tee Higgins and Zay Flowers on a points-per-game basis. If you took just his points from his rushing production, he’s the running back four. CMC is a cheat code for fantasy football because you get the production of two players in one starting spot. He’s a player I’d consider dumping most, if not all, of my budget on if I’m set everywhere else.

Ja’Marr Chase (bid 20 percent)
Chase landed hard on his back in their matchup vs. the Bills on Sunday. He went to the sidelines for a little bit, and perhaps it was just adrenaline, but he finished the game. He’s labeled day-to-day, but that doesn’t scare me off of him. Chase is tied for the 4th most receptions in the league, and he’s had his bye. If you aren’t concerned with his injury, bid big on Chase.

Travis Etienne (bid 17 percent)
Much like the Seahawks’ schedule for running backs, the Jaguars have a pretty tough schedule as well. They play the 49ers, Titans, Browns, Ravens, and Buccaneers. So five of the remaining eight games (assuming your playoffs end in Week 17) are less than ideal matchups. Three-down running backs are hard to come by, so if you want to spend more of your budget on him, I get it, but just know what the road ahead looks like.

Bijan Robinson (bid 15 percent)
Going from Etienne to Bijan is a night and day difference. One running back is getting all the work, and the other is Bijan Robinson. It’s a clear misuse of Bijan’s talent by Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith. Losing back-to-back weeks against backup quarterbacks while barely utilizing the player you just spent the eighth overall pick on is outrageous. Much to my surprise, he’s still the 14th-best running back in fantasy. He gets the Cardinals this week, then his bye, but after that, he’s got favorable matchups left and right. Hopefully, after the bye, Coach Smith gets him the ball more, especially around the goal line.

Zack Moss (bid 3 percent)
While he is the fourth-ranked fantasy running back on the season, his snap shares have gone down in three consecutive weeks as the 42 million-dollar running back Jonathan Taylor rightfully takes the reins back for the Colts’ backfield. Moss has been serviceable and is still probably in consideration as a flex play, but he is almost a board line insurance backup for fantasy in the event Taylor were to miss any time.

Jahmyr Gibbs (bid 15 percent)
David Montgomery missed some time with a rib issue, but he’s set to be back this week. During his absences, Gibbs finally looked as advertised in the pre-draft process and has been the number one running back over the last two weeks. It’s a total shot in the dark as to how they deploy Gibbs and Montgomery coming back from their Week 9 bye. While it’s the NFL and anything can happen, the Lions play some teams where they may have a commanding lead or will at least be favored in the majority of their remaining matchups, which better suits Montgomery’s bruiser ability to close out games.

Team Assumptions:
The bid amounts are subject to how your team is doing. If you are cruising along just fine, your team is a top-half team, and you’ve sustained minimal injuries, congratulations. The bids I recommend should be lowered by roughly 5-8 percent. If your team was nearly chopped this week, you’re dealing with serious injuries, or you simply won’t get any points out of the player you’ve got to start, consider going above these recommended bids by 5-8 percent. If you’re in the middle of the pack, feel free to bid as recommended. For a more detailed and tailored recommendation amount, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. I do a guillotine league post every Tuesday morning. You show me your team and which players are available, and I recommend amounts to bid.

—Colt Williams

Williams is working towards a degree in economics and statistics at Sonoma State. A United States Air Force veteran, he’s been playing fantasy football since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @_ColtWilliams

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